pop, pop, fizz, fizz-- no more yield curve inversioni think this is headed for a terminal thrust or wave 5, and abc will correct on some support in the given lower ranges TLT. after seein all time highs, i believe the 10 year will fade if it enters weekly consolidation, and fails some break out level forming a false breakout of upper 90% range. TLT is on watch for bullish divergence macd, stoch, rsi monthly
T-bonds
Traditional portfolio strategy for retirement... not so hot now!The candles below represent a 60/40 mix of TLT and SPY, bonds and stocks. SPY (orange) and TLT (blue) by comparison show than neither asset class is helping to overcome the bad performance of the other. By comparison, moving money to cash (UUP) looks like it would have been a great short-term move against inflation.
Bonds SlumpBonds have sold off into the mid 118's after smashing through 119'01. We have gradually drifted up from there, but are meeting resistance at 119'01. It will take some momentum to break through this level and right now it does not seem that ZN can muster the strength. The Kovach OBV has edged upward, but appears quite weak. If ZN is able to somehow break out, then 119'23 is the next target. If we sell off further, then 118'04 is the next target below.
US Gov. Bonds 10 YR Yield (Y22.P1.E1). Topping structureHi All,
#10yearyields 10 year debt market
We have. a number of scenarios for this top structure at a key level of resistance.
So we expect to go up and roll over and the rates by the FED will not stop any time soon.
All the best.
S.SAri
4 hrly chart
Big picture - strong resistance
US10Y Aggressive correction possibleThe U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a short-term Channel Down on the 1D time-frame with the 4H MA100 (red trend-line) as the Resistance and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as the Support. This is turning into a tight squeeze and whatever level breaks first, should give us the direction on the longer term.
A break below the 1D MA50 can see the price correct aggressively by filling the gaps on the lower MA levels, the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and eventually the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). In that case the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level would be a fair target. This resembles so far the correction of April - July 2021, which bottomed below the 1D MA200.
On the other hand, I expect a bullish extension if the 3.205 High breaks towards the -0.236 Fib.
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Bonds Test Higher LevelsBonds have edged up higher, with ZN hitting our target of 121'00. This is a strong psychological and technical level. We are seeing a bit of a divergence between the price action and the Kovach OBV so unless more momentum comes thorugh, anticipate a dip or some ranging between 120'14 and 121'00. If we dip further, 119'23 should provide support. If we are able to break out further, then we have a fairly wide vacuum zone to the next level and target at 121'28.
Have corporate bonds bottomed?The Corporate bond market got extremely oversold and it bounced without the Fed having to pivot. Essentially the market got to 2013-2018 levels, and bounced nicely at the old support. But we still don't know whether the bottom is in or now, as there are more questions that need to be answered, like: Does the market expect the Fed to reverse course soon? Does the market think the bottom is in for bond yields? Does it think inflation has peaked?
In my opinion the market did the tightening itself without the Fed. The Fed did a mistake for not raising rates and ending QE faster, however they were right on their approach to go slowly, as one way or another inflation would slow down. By inflation slowing down down I don't mean that prices will go down, just that prices will go up a lot less than they did over the last 1-2 years. At the same time I do believe that as inflation comes down, it is possible that we get to see the Fed say that they will pause their hikes after raising them to around 2% and will let their balance sheet roll off on its own.
Essentially higher interest rates, lower asset prices, tight fiscal and monetary policy, and already high energy prices are crushing demand. The Fed was/is behind the curve, but as the curve seems to be now moving to the direction of the Fed. To a large extend their objective has been achieved, as this correction was similar to the 2018 correction, only that this time around the correction was welcomed when back then it wasn't.
Now I don't really think the bottom is in for corporate bonds, however I also don't think they are going to roll over very quickly. If the food & energy crisis gets worse, I have no doubt that these will get crushed. It just seems that in the short-medium term things will cool down a bit and part of them Fed's goals have been achieved. The US economy remains fairly strong and its corporations are in a fairly good shape, despite everything that has been going in the world over the last few years.
Having said all that I don't want to be a buyer of HYG at 80. At those levels I think it is better to short and aim for 77-78, and then if the price action looks decent, go long at those levels. The bounce is too sharp for it to have legs to go higher immediately. I'd expect more chop in the 75-81 area before the market decides whether it is going to go higher or lower.
TLT may return to 132-135 neutral zone as a flight to safety.TNX 10-yr yield may have peaked out as investors rotate to the safety of bonds in the 120-114
accumulation zone. TLT has completed a big M-pattern stopping at almost perfect FIBO levels. This ABC wave has already made a 300% retracement from the ATH of 173.89 made last 9Mar2020 before pandemic striked.
The 132-135 zone will be some sort of neutral area for determining inflation or deflation. It is also the neck zone of the M-pattern. As it fell quickly from this zone, the rebound will also be very fast looking at the volume profile that has a large space in between.
5 impulse waves & 3 ABC corrective waves have end this EW cycle & a new cycle shall begin as TLT returns to the baseline of my slanted FIBO CHANNEL where wave 3 had started at Feb2011.
Not trading advice
Everything has changed.People ask me, "but why is Bitcoin doomed to fall back to Earth?"
People ask me, "but why has Bitcoin risen so much the last 12 years then?"
People ask me, "but why don't you want me to have a lambo?"
I tell people, "Bitcoin is a failure of its own success. Blockchain is the internet of things. It has worked so well that governments are now developing their own versions and realizing they need to regulate."
I tell people, "Bitcoin did so extremely well because (-) real interest rates caused any excess liquidity to flow into new pockets of the economy. Look at the yellow box. Most bond holders have been losing money in real terms even though bond prices were going up. You can see that all the growth since 2012 has been artificially pumped up.
I tell people, "These last 10-12 years are the quintessential example of a Wave 5 Elliott wave. The sellers had all left. Volume and fundamentals remained low even though prices kept rising. Bubbles formed and whole new markets developed (crypto) as a result of monetizing the debt.
So no, this is not like 2018, 2014, or 2011.
You cannot compare this next cycle to the previous ones.
Either the Inflation Rate (red line) crashes, or BTC and markets crash.
(Not Financial Advice. This is my opinion.)
TNX ZN TKT ZB - 10Year / 20Year / 30YearSh_t Mixed remain Bonds... every flight to Safety has been utterly and systematically
crushed.
It will be again and again as our Bond Market losses its Pillars of which there are 4.
One by one these are failing.
Longer-term, the lose/lose proposition will compound.
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Short term, we'll see how YCC and an overall Market Panic can trend Yields.
The Fed has permitted the Bond Market to generate the necessary adjustments.
Strenght - historically has been in control of only the short end.
Operation twist is no longer relevant, the FED can simply clip coupons and trend into
expiration of Holdings while reinvesting across the entire Curve.
Sadly, engaging in Yield Curve Control (YCC) crossed the Rubicon.
My thesis has been proven entirely correct - instability by design.
US10Y Will Go Down! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
US10Y has retested a strong horizontal resistance
And we are already seeing a bearish reaction
So I think that the move down will continue
With the target being the broken falling resistance
That has turned into a support level
Sell!
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US30Y Local Bearish Bias! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
US30Y is trading in a bearish triangle
Which formed after the price retested
A horizontal resistance level
So we are bearish biased
And after the breakout a short
Will be an appropriate trade to take
Sell!
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