In terms of the global macroeconomic picture, the past two weeks have been nothing short of a firestorm. Last week, the UK government announced plans for unfunded tax cuts and additional government borrowing in the ‘mini budget’. This caused a drastic reduction in market confidence. Consequently the Pound crashed to under $1.04, historically low levels against the...
We have seen the USD on a rampage of late and it's sucked the life out of risk assets like stocks and BTC, but wait, have we seen this before? I have and I want to explain a little about how this may play out.
Some pre market commentary, SPX - expecting a bear trap after open, then higher. Wheat may be affected by the hurricane in Florida, Bonds hit an important fib extension, Gold looks promising if it can get over 1675 resistance, DXY also looks like it may pullback - BTC could still move to lower 18000 area before a move up (would align with one more low in equities)...
Clearly, inflation is a problem and I for one thought the rates rising were overblown after the first hike. (I was very wrong here) With that said, we are likely in the topping process for inflation, pending any new black swan events happen. The indicators show 4 things in regards to this bond. 1. No momentum, 2. Bear market trend 3. below the historical anchored...
US 30-Year Government Bonds Yield in full flight, breaking 2018 highs. Major support at 3.80 A complete five-wave pattern could land bond prices at 4.85-5.11
Hey !! So I've been digging and experimenting with multiple market instrument relations and I have picked those three - SPX, 10 year bonds and VIX as they are the most powerful of all. And I have noticed it has been creating a really clear trend of up and downs - comparing it to SPX it has shown that everytime we have touched the bottom trendline - the market...
**WHERE DO WE START** At this point it is nearly unarguable that the move up form the Covid lows looks impulsive, meaning we are in some sort of a new bull cycle. In the past, since US10Y's inception back in the late 1970s the path it followed had a downwards trajectory that made new lows after each bull cycle was done. The US10Y would then correct those lows...
It needs air and to me this is it - correction time, eoy should be bullish.
Hello ladies and gentlemen, according to my chart analysis of Zn 10 Year T-Note Futures There Is a Strong Sell With High Probability 107.05 This is a next level in a Few Days.
Let's dispense with the Master O' Obvious stuff straight away. Pick an Adjective - it won't rhyme with Bullish. It may, however, be cringeworthy. NQ below 200 W SMA. What lay ahead remains up to 3588 for the ES Futures, *Note the 200SMA Weekly is just below this most important of level @ 3585.55. Powell - simple... NO...
Notes on this friday, I'm following my plan as of now and will continue to do so unless 3600 gets taken out. The Dollar looks like a blow off top is coming soon, VIX is .60 cents away from weekly BB. BOnds are getting a bid and are actually green today. Powell talks at 2pm, worth noting. Good luck!
Growth, Employment, Inflation - aka what's left of the Economy. 1. Employment - seeking roughly a reduction of 12 Million Jobs. 2. Growth - reduction of 50% for S&P 500 from Highs. 3. Inflation - Leads until Rate Lag breaks everything. _________________________________________________________________________________ Capital Stocks Powell - Bonds are...
TLT has been in downward channel since COVID 2020 highs. Currently it's hitting at a MEGA technical level which has conjunction of triple support trendlines as shown in the chart. TLT might go down till $104 before a short term technical bounce to $115-$116. However my medium to long term target for Treasury bonds is $95 and $85, with Fed increasing interest...
Hello traders and investors, today we will talk about US Yields and its relationship with GOLD from Elliott wave perspective. As you may already know, US Yields and gold are in negative correlation. And, as you can see, while US Yields are on the rise, gold is slowing down. However, US Yields can be now finishing a five-wave cycle from the lows, while gold is...
Bonds have slid further and there is no relief rally insight. The markets were hoping for a 'dovish hike' in the sense that the 75 bps hike would be followed by dovish rhetoric. In fact it was the opposite. Yields have maintained highs pressing prices further down. We are hugging 113'12 and expect support there. If not, we will use Fibonacci extension levels...
I forgot wheat - still looks fine for bulls. All in the video, expecting a pump up today and then further selling to 3700. Sentiment is extremely bearish and so with the technicals I'm watching I'm expecting a rally sooner rather than later. OIL looks good for a nice swing up, Gold as well, Bonds may have a breakout on TLT, but we need to see follow through -...
Jackson Hole, CPI, and FOMC are rearview. Are you a Dip Buyer - with Powell stating the FED is on the low side of the Target Range? That is a suicide, assured. See Chart - the obnoxious Bots are far more intelligent than us and gaining further ground exponentially. We closely observe their programs daily and make adjustments among our small group of live...
I will be buying bullish exposure to 7 and 10 year treasuries as a result of topping out inflation and the fed's aggressive actions to kerep it down.