The 20-year Treasury Bond ETF 'TLT' is looking good now that the Federal Reserve has stated that an interest rate cut could come as early as September if inflation continues to fall. The fact that Fed chairman Jerome Powell is now using dovish language and naming dates for potential cuts is cause enough to consider shifting some money to bonds. The swift selloff...
If this is a real wave 3 up then look for price to solidly hold above 96. If not then (2) may not have been complete and we look for a running flat as a longer in time wave (2) staying above the lower trendline.
NASDAQ:TLT breaking out on an absolute and relative term to the S&P500.
it measures the price liquidity and volatility of the bond or market could be the FLOW of FUNDS ahead of the underlying assets in the OPTiONS market a crystal ball that provides you a 3 week headscarf to POSiTiON scale in or out of your beloved PETS
Out of curiosity I took a look M2 to see the trends over the years and how it compares to COVID and the last few years. I don't have any great revelations to share about what to do, but I thought the chart was interesting. I also did some research and used ChatGPT to help me create a summary about M2. Please note that I cannot guarantee the following text is...
I don't think anyone is expecting this, but I think we're setup for yields to hit new highs this year. The chart indicates yields are breaking out to the upside again, and this move could be a strong one. I think we're setting up to see a new high in yields by November topping somewhere between 5.35%-6.40%. Let's see if it plays out.
The yield curve invesrion remains in place for the longest historical inversion run. This cant be good right? History shows once the spread between the 10 & 2 corrects back to normal / un-inverts you usually get a sell signal in the market. We are observing a massive bullish wedge pattern unfolding and looks poised at any moment to breakout. The un-...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) initially expanded but then took a breather on the new Bullish Leg, as per our January 24 (see chart below) buy signal, before hitting our Target: The price is now approaching the bottom of the 2-year Channel Up yet again and by next week a 1D Death Cross will be completed. The 2 previous such formations within...
How will the market perform if either Biden or Trump wins? That should be an easy question to answer, as we can track the market performance on the first day each became President of the United States. Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures and Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a...
I'll start with the weekly RSI bullish divergence off the 2022 and 2023 yearly lows. In addition to that, there is also a nice bullish pinbar on the 4M chart. This also hints to a possible bottom/bullish reversal. Price is now pushing against the trendline resistance (from Mar 23' to Jul 24'). Once price is able to break and hold this area it could really...
NASDAQ:TLT Treasury Bond ETF Inverse Head & Shoulders, In technical analysis of Treasury Bond ETFs, an inverse head and shoulders pattern is a bullish reversal signal. It occurs when the ETF's price forms three distinct troughs, with the middle trough ("head") being the lowest and the two outer troughs ("shoulders") being higher. A "neckline" is drawn connecting...
And there goes the the 2Yr Yield, it is whimpering. Unless something happens this is rolling over further. 10Yr Yield had a nice bounce but it is also rolling over. TVC:TNX is only 33 basis points from normalization! Short term #yield is looking very weak, 6 month and 1 Yr, not shown. More info see profile...
Yields are pulling back a bit from the run they had yesterday. It was expected to have a bounce at the support levels. The 2Yr & 10Yr #Yield both look as if they want to settle a bit but time till tell . We will see how Yield reacts over the next few days. It is important as a crashing yield can mean higher prices all across the board in many assets. We've...
Big Win for India: Indian government bonds are now included in JPMorgan's emerging markets index, a first for the world's fastest-growing large economy. This move is expected to trigger significant foreign investments, reshape India's financial landscape, and boost economic growth. Opening the Doors: The inclusion grants India a 10% share in the index, following...
Financials have been demonstrating some interesting price action. We believe financials in the near term could be in for some choppy negative price action. With yields now sitting at support during the recent selloff, banks haven't done all that well. Were now at a point in the inflation fight where we could experience an upside move in inflation. We just...
Can't overrule the politicization of the FED and the rigging of the numbers. If CPI comes in 3.3 or lower the FED will cut rates. I've also seen darkpool prints for TMF 3xTLT. Here's an insurance play if the FED cuts rates: August 75 calls for TMF are .15. That's a return of 15-20x!! While waiting for the market to shake out. Then I'd run into metals and miners...
German Bund is nicely breaking above important trendline after a completed complex w-x-y corrective decline in wave B, which can now send the price higher for wave C towards 140 resistance area. If we respect a positive correlation between German Bund and EURUSD currency pair, then EURUSD could easily stabilize and recover.
Let's see how the TVC:VIX does over the next few days/weeks. Still think it eventually breaks its major support level, at least temporarily. The 2Yr and 10Yr are crashing and following yesterdays drop. TVC:TNX #interestrates, as we said, will likely be cut, even if a little. They will most likely be raised again next year. Not political... Anyway, since we...