The three decade + trend for bond rates has been downward. In June, we witnessed the first rise above that trend line in recent history, followed by a return to the trendline last week. This is a pivotal point for both bonds and stocks. If stocks drop back down below the trendline, we can see the market go higher in the near term. If the 30 year bond rates...
Bonds crept up but are facing resistance. After ZN tested highs at 121'28, and retraced, it started to establish value between 119'23 and 121'00. The latter has provided prohibitive resistance, as we have discussed this week, and we have seen a rejection, continuing the sideways correction. We saw a wick down to 119'23, where we found support, at first, but we...
US02Y up ~6% US10Y up ~0.12% Definition of a Bear Flattener = market go down. Is it a perfect indicator? Of course not. But the tendency is that bear flatteners mean money is coming out of the market and going into short term bonds where it can come out of the quickest if market turns around. So the short term bonds act as a kind of pump/dump for the market. We...
According to this chart, true recession will come next year, not this year. Before the big dump is a big pump.
Hello everybody! I wanted to make a quick update on where I think the 10y and 30y bonds will be headed in the next few months, as in the past, I've been talking quite a bit about deflation and a recession being close. We have seen TLT rise significantly, yet I think there is more upside. In the short term, I can see a further pullback, but in my honest opinion,...
In this update we review the recent price action in the TLT ETF and update the trade strategy and price objectives to target
Hi everyone Here we have plotted the support and resistance levels of the BONDUSDT. It seems that with the breaking of the upcoming resistance, we will see an increase in the price to the range of 11 dollars. But we all know that everything depends on the behavior of Bitcoin!! If you see specific behavior, we will signal it, stay with us.
Hey all just showing the ten year is looking like it will fall in anticipation of the fed relaxing its polices as we are in recessions and the labor market might weaken with the layoff announced by the big boys (tesla, Apple, google etc.) the distance of the head to neck bring the target to 2% which is less then current interest rates so I don't know if it will go...
We roll into August where after a scorching run in risk assets, the NAS100 closed July +12.6%, the best gain since April 2020 (rallied 15.2%). In Europe, the FRA40 was the best performing EU equity index, +8.9% for July, while in APAC/Asia the AUS200 rallied 5.7% and trending beautifully into FY earnings. Ethereum gaining a massive 67% in July has shown us once...
Short here with 120LIS on it. Feel confident and could see this find 113 support soon next .
Bonds have lifted, breaking out of the narrow range held for the past three days. We broke the upper bound at 120'14, and hit our next target exactly at 121'00, as predicted. We are seeing red triangles on the KRI suggesting that we are facing resistance here. The Kovach OBV has picked up, suggesting genuine momentum may be back. If so, the next target is...
10yr keep an eye Got a H&S formation, keep an eye if we break down further there are key support areas IF this continues further. However, we are at key support and don't forget month end. Have a great weekend 🎉 TJ
Historically - inflation has never been defeated except when a long term bond (in this case the 30 year) yield is above the rate of inflation. The collapse of supply has meant too much money chasing too few goods. This means more and more capital is sucked into a blackhole of wage-price spirals. Currently the US has trapped itself against a wall and a hard place...
I believe the next 6-12 months will put the s&p potentially higher than my previous target, depending on whether or not this is in fact the start of a wave 1 of 3, part of the 5th wave of a higher degree (purple) wave 3. If current turquoise wave 3 is extended, then wave 5 will more than likely perform a "throw over" in relation to the 45 degree channel in this...
5 year bond yields in the US look like they might be topping out. Incurs a negative bias on the wider economy. Return to the historical trend around the yellow line?
This pattern getting painted filled with false hope of people thinking the damages from QE since 2008 and the Pandemic printing are over is very alarming if it plays out. It was terrible enough seeing people lose fortunes / life savings during the recent collapse of the simpleton's running VC funds with insane leverage without telling people where their funds...
In the next 24-48h TNX may dump. That's bullish for other markets crypto, stocks...
Double bottom leading to a complete trend reversal I am seeing this suggestions of trend reversals across the board on the bond market