The Federal Reserve will suggest they projected a slowdown in Economic activity. Effect Indicated, Effect Observed. Solid work. _______________________________________________________________________ Outside of the Matrix, the Depression slumbers on within the confines of Real Sentiment. ....The Deal Breaker. "7" was misstated - "6" is the GDI hedonic, it's...
US10Y on this daily timeframe shows a large descending scallop On the right another example of this pattern is shown, however just it has been completed Descending Scallops are a bullish reversal pattern
This is a critical update on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) as it has formed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. This is a technically bearish formation that we typically see on market tops with a reversal following. It gets even stronger considering the fact that the Head of the formation hit (and got rejected on) the Higher Highs (top) trend-line...
The 10-Year Treasury yield has been consolidating since April as traders grappled with inflation and recession woes. Now, a bearish Head & Shoulders chart formation is prevailing. At the time of publishing, prices finished forming the right shoulder and were trading at the neckline, which seems to be around 2.70. This is as the 100-day Simple Moving Average...
Treasuries are an intersting play right now. Depending on your home currencies it still might be a good moment to consider stocking up on them in your portfolio. Couple of notes looking at the chart. FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate was shown to be around 4% (per June...
Although BTC may be considered as a 'new safe heaven', 'digital gold' and etc., it is actually one of the least safe investments. Whereas, 30 year US bond yields tend to be on the safest side in comparison to all financial assets. By analyzing financial assets against commodities or safe financial assets you take away fiat currency fluctuations. Which are...
Inverted yield curve, portending recession(likely next year), is on track and before the big dump is a pre-recession pump for equities and cryptocurrencies.
If you’re chasing portfolio income, you may be eyeing high-yield bonds, also known as junk bonds, which typically pay more interest but carry greater risk. Since interest rates and bond prices move in opposite directions, U.S. junk bond values have dipped to the lowest levels since May 2020. But yields are at 7.5% as of May 17, up from 4.42% since the beginning...
According to our analysis Fgbl completed its down trend and we expect a reversal now
There are no bad bonds, only bad prices. So Dan Fuss, Loomis Sayles’ vice chairman, has often observed—a lesson gleaned from more than six decades of experience managing corporate bond portfolios. After what seems likely to go into the books as the worst first half of the year for fixed-income markets on record, prices now look a lot better from the standpoint of...
As Crude breaks down, so do rates. Crude is the last domino to fall in slowing down inflation. Bond yields won’t come down until growth and inflation break down. The bearish head-n-shoulds pattern tells me bond yields are near a breaking point. Weaker than expected housing data should confirm the economic slowdown. The Fed is actively sucking liquidity from the...
Bonds are oscillating in the narrow range between 117'19 and 119'01. The Kovach OBV has leveled off, suggesting there is little momentum at the moment to move then needle either way. We appear to be in a sideways corrective phase, after topping out at 120'14, then retracing to 117'19. If we catch more momentum, we could test highs again at 120'14. If 117'19...
U.S Bonds market is larger than the largest American companies combined, therefore it is important to also track the health of the bonds market. • U.S Bonds size - market value estimated $46 trillion • Largest American companies size - market capitalization estimated $42 trillion The bonds market moves in tandem with the stock markets, meaning when the general...
A full 1.618 extension and bullish divergence is making me think we see a rise. Purely technical approach. Happy Trading
One of the ways to determine U.S. stocks and indices’ direction in the long-term is to also know where the U.S. bonds markets are heading. Why? This is because the US bonds, its market capitalization can be as large as all the U.S. stocks market combined; therefore, it is also as important to also track its direction. In the macro trend over generations, the...
BIAS: BULLISH TECHNICAL PROJECTION: On the Daily, we have a bullish bias that price will carry its bullish momentum to 107 then 112 target. FUNDAMENTAL PROJECTION: Market could be pricing further 75bps hike tightening to come & balance sheet reduction to continue at $60b & $35mbs over the three month timeframe.
BND looks to have finished it's C wave and now getting ready to rally past most expectations. On the BND ETF, it should make new highs. Strong weekly bullish divergence and A=C 1.272 which is a very common extension for C. For those looking for a fundamental reason for bonds to rally, I recommend David Rosenberg's excellent interview a few days ago on Wealthtrack...
We are living in arguably the most interesting time for all financial markets. Some economists, politicians, and business entities know the saying: “when America sneezes, the world catches a cold.” Now, no matter how you interpret this statement the U.S accounted for over 20% of the expansion in world RGDP during the past two decades. Moreover, U.S'...