Bonds have leveled out after a brief relief rally tested 120'14. We saw prohibitive resistance confirmed by two red triangles on the KRI, then immediately fell back down to 119'01, where we are seeing support. The Kovach OBV picked up slightly with the rally, but fell back down to bearish territory with the rejection. If current levels don't hold, we are sure...
We have seen this movie before. High yield bonds work as a good proxy for risk-appetite in the market. Using a simple trend filter, we see clear warning signs developing. Question is - how far will this go?
Bonds have taken another turn south, after flirting briefly with 119'23. With the Fed maintaining their hawkish stance, there is little to support a breakout, or a significant technical retracement. We have broken through lows at 119'01, and are currently hovering over our next target at 188'04. The Kovach OBV has been abysmally bearish for some time now, but...
The bounce up from pandemic bottom Is corrective, we have a failed wave down after the large ABC thus making it a wave X. Now we are completing the 2nd ABC or WXY pattern into Fib retracements. Balloons dont follow rules and can fly high, but when they pop it is by all accounts... biblical. Cheers
Applying simple Elliot wave analysis, I see an ABC pattern with a failed 5 wave move up marked as X wave, the first ABC is then labeled as W and projected 1:1 ratio from top of (X) brings us down to the box area, where TLT is most likely to find support (1:1 & 1.236 Fib ratio). I see the price dropping without retest of major resistances that it broke through,...
As you can see on the main chart, 10y bond yields have broken above their downwards channel and are now back at their 2013-2018 highs. Based on technical analysis we don't have a confirmation that the trend has fully reversed until we get a close above 3.2%, but we are pretty close to breaking above that level too. Now we aren't only seeing the 10y yields rise, as...
As anticipated, bonds faced steep resitance from 121'00 and sharply retraced. We have fallen back to 119'23, one level above lows at 119'01. The Kovach OBV ticked up slightly with the rally, but has fallen sharply at the moment. At this point it is clear that any rally is purely technical and the bear rout is still at play.
Hello everybody. In my previous analysis i was talking about inflation. Gold, Silver and oil are showing some bullish action i expect downward pressure for the dollar Since the world did not stop printing and prices for goods are rising fast. -NO FA -Do your own research -Share like and suscribe
I'v been tacking this Gartley for a while now and eager to post it but opted to wait until it got closer to the PCZ before i posted and now we are pretty much here; This could signal the end of Rising Treasury Yields and the beginning of a Recovery Period within Equities and Securities. I will be taking profit on my Yearly TLT PUTs and buying some Yearly CALLs next week.
The FED's monetary policy is a lot like that scene in the Wizard of Oz where they think they are communicating with a great and supremely powerful wizard, but Dorothy's dog incidentally pulls back the curtain while sniffing his leg. To the disdain of Dorothy, Tin and Straw man, it's just some goofy looking guy pulling levers and talking through a loudspeaker while...
Decided to go long TLT here 114/119 D defined risk bull put spread.
At one point, there will be a mean reversion trade here. Until then, not sure how much more this will go in opposite directions. I still believe if the dollar is strong, buying international bonds cheaper then they've been in a while might see some action. Investors will be able to limit risk and improve returns by focusing only on the countries with the most...
What will happen IF it gets rejected and falls back? Investopedia (below) "How Growth and the Stock Market Influence Bond Yields During periods of economic expansion, bond prices and the stock market move in opposite directions because they are competing for capital. Selling in the stock market leads to higher bond prices and lower yields as money moves into the...
10yr - Key area, you can even look at Bunds - Support lower HT = ST Movement.
What does this show? The Move Index, indicates the volts within the bond market, yield movement is an important factor that everyone should keep in mind, even if you don't trade the asset. Now, this is more of an advance level: Fixed-Income division: As we all know, volts has been up, it's been like 🥢 is what I call this market when it comes to US indices, I use...
Will US Bonds yield finally break this trendline ?? Very interesting to follow for fundamental market analysis
UUP isn't too far behind either. BTC is under 40k- has been weak all week. I still think, if the dollar remains strong, why wouldn't this be bullish for companies that are sitting on a ton of it? AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT etc. It would seem overseas bonds would look attractive at this point given the slaughter they have been receiving.
Ladies and Gentlemen, please take your seats. (...the music stops) Okay, thanks for playing. Good luck to all of you! The investment strategies that have worked for the last 40 years will no longer work. The true bear market is here. This will absolutely 100% NOT be a recession that will be forgotten easily. It most likely will be a depression via stagflation...