Everyone is talking about yields inverting and the recession that follows it. Here I am going to do a quick rundown on how to actually use this information to your advantage. It is not the yields INVERTING that is cause for concern. This is only the first step of a potentially long process. It is when yields start STEEPENING that there is real cause for concern....
In this update we review the recent price action in the US T-Bond futures and identify the next high probability trading opportunities and price objectives to target.
Prepare yourself for 2036. This chart explain itself.
US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR US2Y Sincereley L.E.D 9/04/2022
This is an aggressive target, a worst case scenario if you will, as the Fed will most likely capitulate to the market before ever reaching 2.4 %.
US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR US2Y Sincereley L.E.D 8/04/2022
Yield's are tapping the top of this downtrend established since 1981 while the monthly RSI is at the most overbought levels we've ever seen. Also we can see that the yields are above the 144 monthly moving average that typically acts as resistance. There is still a possibility at this rate, with how crazy this market is, that it could blow out of this channel...
If you think $SPY is at new high levels today in comparison with dot com bubble and 2008 crash, Think again. $SPY today is actually 58% cheaper than it was in the peak of dot com, and cost the same as it did in 2007.. in term of gold. The SPY in monthly chart shows it recovery from dot com crash started Jan 2013. Ticker SPY/GOLD
Bonds are back to hugging lows, after a brief attempt at higher levels. We found immediate resistance one level above at 121'00. Even the rally to that level encountered serious resistance at every step, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We are back to lows again at 120'14. The Kovach OBV is very bearish so we can expect an imminent breakdown to lower...
In this video, I breakdown why the U.S Dollar is bullish against the Japanese Yen and maintaining its strength against the Euro, as the central bank, ' The Federal Reserve", is raising interest rates aggressively in 2022 to deal with high domestic inflation. This is in contrast to the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, which have pledged to keep interest...
NASDAQ:TLT is showing signs of reversal with a reaction off the low of March 25th. Today's catalyst of dividend payouts made it open right at the 50% Retracement Level. If price holds this level a good Risk/Reward trade would take price back to 141 which is the 50% Retracement of the last few months' down trend.
Hello traders! Today we want to share an intraday update for USDJPY pair in which we see nice and clean bullish impulse in progress, ideally back to highs for wave 5 that can retest the highs and 125 - 126 area. The main reason why USDJPY may stay up is still an unfinished five-wave decline on 10Y US Treasury Notes. As you can see, there's a negative...
Hey Guys, in this video I give my opinion that the 10 Year Bond Yield has broken out above it's multi-decade downward trendline and it's set to go higher because inflation is growing significantly and is at historical extremes above the 10 year yield. I think it's because of the Fed that has absolutely over-flooded the system with liquidity, check out the chart...
Soon it might be a good time to buy TLT or TMF. The top for bond yields looks near to me as it gets close to this channel top. A good confirmation for a pullback would be to watch for a break in the stoch support. You could argue that it is also making a megaphone pattern with the support at 2.6% and the resistance at the channel top. I looked into this pattern...
Worries of a looming recession intensified late Thursday last week after the yield on the two-year US Treasury bonds hit 2.337% as the yield on 10-year bonds fell to 2.331%, marking an inversion that usually preceded previous periods recessions. It was the first negative spread since 2019. However, Treasury yields flipped again on April 1 and again on April 4,...
Whenever this chart crosses 0 it means the yield curve for the 2 and 10 year bond yields has inverted. Historically a significant economic downturn followed. It's not perfect but nonetheless I wanted to put this out there for feedback. Thanks
Yield is currently trading in the long-term downtrend channel. The fed will intervene in rates and this will cause a fall in equities, in addition the yield curve is going to invert. Historically, declines in bond yields have coincided with large declines in equities.
Bonds appear to be breaking out alongside DXY. Record amounts of shorts have been piled onto Bonds to the order of 4 sigma - everyone and their dog is short bonds - so you know what that means! Rates aren't rising, the Bond market sees what is coming - and it is deflationary. Use a leveraged Bond ETF such as TMF to capture the big move in bonds!