Stocks are in a bull market. Bonds are in a bear market. Unemployment increases to 4% FOMC & CPI on Wednesday. Yield Curve remains inverted. Longest in history.
And there they go! The 2Yr bounced right at the support level, AGAIN It is forming lower highs though. 10Yr #yield looks a bit weaker that its counterpart. TVC:TNX In reference to the #interestrate post after the one quoted... The weekly up trend is NO LONGER BROKEN! TVC:VIX not moving much, interesting.
GOOD MORNING! The 2Yr & 10Yr have broken the triangle pattern we posted on long ago. The TVC:TNX (10Yr) has gone lower compared to the 2Yr in the same time frame. Again, natural normalization is still out the window! What does this point to? Will fed do what they are good at & mess it up again? --- Now look @ the 10Yr on a weekly chart! AH HA! Are Bond...
The short term pull back can be an effect due to the upcoming interest rate this upcoming june, and this pull back is a good sign of buying opportunity for long-term. The key point in here is that the bond is set to move downward means the dollar might also fall and so the stocks will do the opposite direction. Dollar cost averaging I believe is the best...
The US long-term bonds have hit new lows, the yield curve has been inverted for two years now, and inflation remains uncertain, meaning interest rates may not ease at all. Yet, stock markets are reaching new highs. We have a "grey rhino" in this market. A grey rhino is a large and visible animal that cannot be ignored. Try not to get too close to them because...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, and continues to follow the buy signal we gave on January 24 (see chart below): Last week it tested the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as a Support, for the first time since April 01 and held. As a result, we expect it to resume the Bullish Leg, the same way it did on July 19 2023...
On Thursday, May 16th, I was sipping coffee and watching The Today Show , when a guest appeared on the program to talk about how much money YOU are supposedly making in your 401(k). Oddly enough the commentator - who was identified as the "chief business correspondent for CNN" - then reminded viewers that "you really should only look at your 401(k) once or twice...
The purpose of this chart is to show how retirement funds are drained once returns reach 20%. The reason this happens is because the purpose of the 401(k) is to prevent working people from ever reaching anything that resembles financial independence. From the time we begin our careers to the time that we reach retirement age, we are CONSTANTLY told that if we do...
Late last year the Spread of the US/JP Carry Trade hit the PCZ of a Bearish Shark resulting in it pulling back to the 50% Retrace, this came ahead of Bearish Action in the stock market and strength in the JPY. However, the bounce at the 50% retrace indicates that it could turn into a Bullish 5-0 which would result in higher highs. In addition to that, the leverage...
Treasury bond TLT has been trading lower since the start of 2024, but after an impulsive rally at the end of 2023, we believe it's just making and finishing a deep A-B-C corrective decline. It's actually now coming into key strong support zone at 61,8% - 78,6% Fibo. retracement and channel support line, from where we should be aware of bounce, recovery and...
Daily weekly long. Hourly flat as a pancake. This could be start of primary wave 2 of 5 or we will have a blow off top continued. Watch 10yr data tomorrow around lunch. I’ll update when I can. Bullish anywhere above $5199.25. Bearish below to $5100.75 Remember big expiration next week on the 17th.
Short term #yield is higher. Long term has turned & are catching a bid. At the moment it doesn't look like they're going down any time soon & that is not good longer term. Was speaking with loan officer yesterday & they believe they must lower before election. But, what if it goes higher before it goes lower? TVC:TNX
NASDAQ:TLT seems to be setting up for one last move higher. I think we're likely to see a bottom of the short term move between around here at $92. Then I think post fed meeting, we'll get a move in TLT up to the $98 resistance, that's where you'd want to be a seller of TLT or buy puts. After that, I think largely the remainder of this year will be bearish...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, and continues to follow the buy signal we gave on January 24 (see chart below): The key development today is the formation of the first Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame in 9 months (since July 10 2023). This is a huge technical buy signal on its own and becomes even more so since...
It has been some time since we checked the #Japanese #Yen vs US #Dollar. Updated the chart a bit since last time. Clear bottom forming inverse head & Shoulder pattern. Broke and retested the 2002 highs. Bounced off the Green Moving Avg, successful retest. Japanese are selling foreign investments as their #interestrates have increased. We've spoken on that a few times.
Good Morning Everyone We finally see what we were expecting. That was the expectation for #Yields to pump higher. There was a NORMALIZATION of the yield curve taking place. However, the 2Yr has moved faster than 10Yr today. IF the #FederalReserve drops rates causing the normalization of the curve it could cause the end of this bull run. The best scenario would...
What would cause rates to move higher? Inflation 2.0? According to this long term yield chart were about to experience a paradigm shift in rates. If this Monthly Golden cross occurs we should see a bull market in rates continue into the future. This would not be a good sing for risk equites. The last time we got the opposite signal" Death cross" we saw a...