Current state of the short and long term #Yield. The 1Yr is underperforming against the 2Yr yield. However, it looks like it wants to push higher. 10Yr vs 30Yr The 10Yr is performing lil better than 30 but....... The 30Yr has a BULLISH short term crossing over longer term moving avg, RSI also looks strong. IMO yields are looking good. Seems like there is still...
Hi Trader! U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Wednesday after an unexpected rise in UK inflation last month and stronger-than-expected U.S. December retail sales data strengthened the case that interest rate cuts will not be as imminent as the market expects. The UK inflation print, as well as more push-back from European Central Bank officials on Wednesday against...
Good Morning Update Looking at the short & long term Bond Yields. Short term (3M & 6M) yields are trading above bank crisis levels. The 1Yr & 2Yr #yield are underneath the crisis levels. The 10Yr is currently at those levels & 30Yr is above said levels. Makes one think....... How much longer can #banks support these levels? CRYPTOCAP:BTC AMEX:GLD ...
Good Morning! Let's get it done! Look at #yield for 1yr - 30Yr. What do you see? Last week we said they looked 2b bottoming out a bit. Do any of these look weak to you? RSI above halfway point, solidifying the possible bottoming process. Short term #Interestrates keep testing the top part of the white line. The more something is tested the weaker it becomes and...
Looking for a pullback into bear channel after the strong selling of 10-year bond futures from Friday's job report. Yields jumped today, so I would think there's some buyers coming into US session. At least there's a decent chance.
The TLT looks like it's trying to form a Double Bottom at the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement, it is also Bullishly Diverging at this level, if it holds up I think it could go up to as high as $96 near the 200-period Simple Moving Average which would also fill the gap. From there I'd think it could continue back down. I will be selling weekly puts around the lower 90...
Last week I put out this TLT trade setup that showcased a Falling Wedge with Bullish Divergence at the 0.382 retrace which targeted an upside move in the TLT that would recover at least 50% of the high: In the time since this setup first formed the TLT has nearly reached that minimum target. In addition to the TLT, I expected the EURUSD to follow a similar path,...
I'm huge ultra BULLISH on US treasuries currently, so please excuse my bias. Not in any specific order, however here are all the factors in this thesis... 1. Interest rates have dramatically increased since Jan 2021, and the overall bond market, including treasuries, had its worst 2 years on record, going back to 1915. 2. Since Nov 2022 just after Halloween,...
TMV on the 4H chart appears to be reversing a trend down since 12/28. YTD it is rising. The reasonable target is the Fib 0.5 retracement at $40 while support for a stop loss just below the POC line of the volume profile is $29.25. As such this is a 35% upside. The RSI indicator shows the fast RSI rising and crossing over the slower RSI while the relative...
The NASDAQ:VGIT ETF movement seems to be inversely proportional to the 10-yr US bond yield Typically as the yield increases, the bond price would also decrease. Even though VGIT has an attractive yield (up to 6% p.a.) with monthly dividends, this requires at least 1-year holding period. Moreover, there are expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2024. While this...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) has gone a long way since our last 1D analysis 3 months ago (October 21 2023, see chart below), hitting all 3 Targets in the process: This time however it is in a completely different situation as it may be rebounding since the Higher Low at the bottom of the long-term Channel Up on December 28, but is being...
Today's focus: Pattern – Continuation, resistance test. Support – 37,400 Resistance – 187.63 - 184.35 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Our focus today is on the GBPJPY pre-Bank of Japan. Looking at price, we can see it continues to trade on fast trends higher but has stalled at resistance. The market could now be waiting to see what's next...
Macro Monday 30 U.S. Net Treasury International Capital Flows In essence the U.S. Net Treasury International Capital Flows (US TIC Flows) refer to the movement of funds into or out of the United States through the purchase or sale of U.S. Treasury securities by foreign investors and governments. These flows of capital are an essential component of the overall...
Here is a long term view of long term US Gov't interest rates. Long term is defined as 30 years and is a common bond owned by pension funds and insurance companies and other long term investors with long term obligations. I highlight the various ranges of interest rates as shown in these 4 boxes and the few moves that temporarily moved interest rates outside...
Hello Traders! The FED's monetary policy is not convincing the markets, but Powell seems very determined to meet his inflation targets. In near term, market seems to want to counter this hawkish monetary policy, but that could change going forward. In short term, yields remain at high levels and I don't exclude that this rally could continue for the last bullish...
Good Morning Update Unless this reverses it looks like it is getting stronger. Thought #interestrates were supposedly going down? 10Yr #yield looks very good & the 30 Yr has been pumping for a bit. 2Yr stopped falling, is it bottoming here? US #Dollar pumping as well - TVC:DXY We've been warning.......
Treasury bond - 10Y US Notes came down a lot in the last two years but this cycle can now come to an end as we can see five waves down into 2023 lows ona weekly time frame. In fact, we also see five subwaves completed within wave (5) on a daily chart after prices recovered and break above the trendline resistance. The move is strong, thus we think that more upside...
We move past the US CPI and PPI releases and the market has become even more convinced that the Fed’s easing cycle starts in March, with a 25bp cut priced for every meeting from this starting point. Yield curves are steepening (the US 2’s 30s curve is no longer inverted), driven by the short-end where US 2-year Treasury yields fell for six straight days, losing...