The 10y-2y bond yields are important because it is the long-short of market expectations; that is, how people view the near-term market vs. their perceived evolution of the market (that also anticipates the FOMC's likely reaction. It's several signals in one). The 10y2ys (blue) is the 10 year Treasury constant maturity (now at 0.96%) Minus the 2-Year Treasury...
Due to Covid 19 the US30Y has drop. When things gets back to normal, should we expect an increase ?
hedgopia.com Hedgopia reports that the long 10 years and short 30 year position is starting to reverse. Short interest on a 30-year is decreasing, short interest on the 10-year is increasing. This could signal a reversal in the macro trend. - This a bet on a raise on short term interest rates and a decline in long term interest rates. Yield curve flattening. -...
We have a Sell Signal Stop loss and Take profit on the Chart.
Updates on existing long position on Bonds. TLT contracting triangle pattern is setting up for a terminal move into wave (C) targeting the 170-175 range. Wave count invalidation at 151.90
U.S. stocks rose by 1.1% today fueled by a 2.1% increase in small cap stocks and a 3.5% increase in energy stocks. The S&P 500 Index is currently up 0.5% year-to-date, and up 7.7% over the past 12 months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 8.2% year-to-date, and down 2.0% over the past 12 months. Elsewhere, commodities climbed 1.6% with gold rising...
U.S. stocks rose by 1.0% today fueled by a 1.5% increase in small cap stocks and a 3.0% increase in energy stocks. The S&P 500 Index is currently up 6.4% year-to-date, and up 15.1% over the past 12 months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 1.8% year-to-date, and up 5.7% over the past 12 months. Elsewhere, commodities fell 1.3% with gold falling...
We have a sell Signal for my prediction SL and TP on the chart
TLT contracting triangle pattern is setting up for a terminal move into wave (C) targeting the 170-175 range. Triangle born in Aug 20’ still in progress and set to rebound before support is found and wave (B) rebound begins.
10 year US bonds price reached all time low at 0.349%. Based on mathematical analysis new range for next several months can be 0.349-1.037
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield has just made contact with the MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 1D time-frame for the first time since December 2018! The closest it has come too after that was in January 2020. On both occasions that was the price top. Additionally the RSI shows an interesting feature. A Double Top (red ellipse) signifies the start of a...
Weekly Flat after downtrend Daily Slight uptrend 4H In uptrend towards new high. = It will support DXY after elections
It's obvious that the Fed has to continue Treasury purchases to keep rates suppressed; the Federal debt is so huge at this point (and the fact that financial fallout from covid isn't even close to resolved) indicates to me that yield curve pinning is likely part of our future. If the Fed pins yields, they're likely to start out towards the front end of the curve....
Description: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: $3,500 High-Volume Concentration; Poor Structure; Balance Break; Stimulus; Earnings. Technical: Broad-market equity indices ended the week higher with S&P 500 retracing more than 50% of its September sell-off. During Last Week’s Action: Alongside fiscal stimulus hopes, U.S. index products...
I got a few questions about interest rates this week. Well, I don’t understand why people are waiting for some disaster in this market. Commercials are selling 10-year Nonets and buying 30 year Bonds. That means smart money expects that short-term rates are going to go down and long-term rates are going to stay where they are. This is a bullish yield curve...
Description: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Low-Volume Area Below $3,320; High-Volume Area At $3,370; NDX, RUT, and SPX divergence. Technical: Broad-market equity indices ended the week higher with the S&P 500 retracing 50% of the sell-off. During Last Week’s Action: Participants defended the low-volume area -- which denotes upside...