Bonds have broken out above relative highs and seem to be stalling about midway to the next level. The next level is 140'18 right before all time highs at 140'25. ZN is currently having some trouble with 140'06, which seems to emerge as a new technical level. Watch for a retracement here before bonds ascend more. The Kovach OBV is very strong, but the Kovach...
They say that the Bond market is forward looking. It's a shame that a lot of people don't bother to look at bonds and instead prefer to draw lovely lines that quite often turn out to be quite useless. Around the 20th of January the 10 year yield broke a 5 month trend line creating a divergence with the S&P 500. A month later the issue was corrected with the S&P...
Si, se supone que cuando no se invierte en acciones por alta volatilidad y riesgo, los inversores se refugian en bonos y materias primas, pero se observa que la emisión de bonos que promedia el ETF TLT va en aumento y está cerca de romper resistencia en su cotización, comparada abajo en naranja, también converge el indice SPX buscando romper resistencia en...
It looks like bonds will rally until the elections possibly here. I'm long bonds and gold for the time being. Let's play it safe until we regain clarity. Not sure about equities but the new ATH in #SPX might indeed happen at some point, just that news make it extremely risky to trade equities until the elections risks are out of the way. This is a safe trend to...
This chart shows the price movement of gold and silver vs. real 10-year treasury bond yields, which are now at nearly -1%. As you can see, gold has a *very* strong inverse correlation with real 10-year bond yields. Silver is correlated too, but it has long periods of under- or out-performance vs. gold. One way to play this is to wait for silver to get far away...
Description: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Prior-Balance; Weak Highs and Lows; Dull, Emotional Participation; Nasdaq Weakness; Financials Intact. Technical: Broad-market equity indices struggled to hold onto recent gains, evidenced by the failed continuation higher. Recapping last week’s action, on Monday, after a good amount of...
In an interesting comparison, Singapore Bond Yields precede the TLT (blue line) slightly, especially in the recent year. See the elllipses marking out the break points, and SG Bond Yields are leading. Noted that the SG Bond Yield has been strongly downtrending, ahead of the TLT bullishess (inversely indicative of the US Bond Yields). I think it signals the...
Really, really remarkable to see this. Remember the Greek/eurozone debt crisis? That's what the big spike is. Now, here we are. Greek bonds are nearing their lowest levels ever. The only explanation is that people are seeking the safest form of assets in government bonds and Central Banks are becoming more helpful managing debt and supporting their countries. I...
The US dollar correlates positively to US Treasuries. Market participants needs US dollar when buying US Treasuries as investments or as collateral. Now we see a pretty sharp diverence and break of that correlation. One would anticiapte a return to mean of this relationship. My base-case is that the dollar will follow bonds and get bid up. In short, my...
BUND I like to compare the currency euro with its bond market the bund. Why? Simply looking at the macroeconomic front of countries as we had strong PMI's this friday come out from European countries, bunds is focused to Germany which you could of took scalp or swing trade towards the positive outcome. Whilst looking at the fundamental aspects i'd reflect...
The US 10 Year Bond is probably the most watched metric used to determine the health of the markets. A drop in yields denotes fear and all risk assets are being sold off. The current chart for the 10 Year Bond looks pretty ugly, but it might make the bears quite happy. We are in a giant descending triangle. The formation within the triangle is a very ugly topping...
Up to the medium time frames and above, our TLT longs is moving into the money as bonds is starting to move higher targeting the 184 level. Focus is on remaining 3 impulse move higher for us to book our TLT longs possibly into September.
On average for the last 10 years, on July 24 30Y bonds and 10Y bonds have a massive move to the upside. The best play would be to buy ZN or ZB futures contracts, or September call options on TLT.
The 10 year treasury yield looks ready to resolve its multi-month consolidation triangle to the downside. There's room for another run up to the .70% area over the next couple weeks, but I ultimately believe we are heading for lower yields. Note the fairly swift rejection from the rally above the 50MA at the end of May / start of June. I'm not making any plays...
blue line is SP500, so my question is why are bond yields dropping if SP500 is continuing to push higher, DXY dropping & WTIC above $42? Could it be debt markets know something the rest of the market does not.
When looking at the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) exchange traded fund (ETF), it is important to consider whether or not interest rates are likely to rise or remain low. Here, the relationship between Treasury yield bonds and interest rates is key to understand. Generally speaking, if you predict interest rates to rise in the future, it is best to avoid...
Bonds have been ranging in a sideways Elliott Wave for some time now. However they appear to be nearing the completion of this cycle. The rounding highs, suggest a breakout to the downside, compounded with the fact that the Kovach OBV, which has been pretty strong, appears to be rounding off. Wait for a squeeze to 139'13 or 139'16, but if risk on sentiment...
Description: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: S&P $3,200 Balance; Multi-Week Consolidation; Close Above Mechanical Highs; Nasdaq Overextension; Financials Find Support. Technical: Broad-market equity indices balanced last week, evidenced by the responsive, tight trading range. Recapping last week’s action, on Monday, the S&P 500...