The US10Y is being rejected on the 1D MA200 after a HL rebound at the bottom of the 1 year Channel Up. The 1D technical outlook turned bearish again (RSI = 42.660, MACD = -0.055, ADX = 36.524), same with the 1W timeframe (RSI = 43.184), so this is still an early buy opportunity for the long term. The 1D RSI patterns among the three bottoms so far are similar and...
Good morning update. The TVC:DJI is still within the range. Logical as investors are awaiting CPI on Thursday. This will guide on cuts to #InterestRates. The SP:SPX showing some strength & currently in small trend higher. But the CLOSING is VERY IMPORTANT. Day range is nice but always respect the closing. TVC:VIX is weakening again. TVC:RUT is still...
This is comparing between the super trend of the S&P 500 (Cash) index and the US 10 year bond yields. Previously, for a good 35 years, bond yields and equities shared a strong positive correlation. (1951 to 1986) Then correlation swung the other way and for the next 37 years, we started seeing negative correlation. Falling yields with equities continuing the...
HAPPY NEW YEAR! 🎉 US Treasury markets are more than the combined bond markets of Germany, Japan, China, UK, France, and Italy = HUGE. This is why US #Bond market is important to keep track of. Short term #interestrates has been the weakest in a LONG TIME 1Yr & 2Yr charts look similar. US Debt 2ys & less have been weakening & look like they still want to...
The 10 year & 30 Yr #yield are at support levels. Looking at Daily charts: The longer term, 30Yr, looks better than TVC:TNX (10Yr) Looking at Weekly charts: The 10Yr support level looks strongest @ 3.3%. All sorts of support levels and trendlines were broken recently. The 30 Yr trendline is certainly broken & Strong Support is found here.
QQQ / SPY New Closing Daily High Semiconductors Mixed * Transports weak DXY & Yields Continuing Lower
The yellow resistance zone is expected to be pivotal for the stock markets. Although some indices appear close to ATHs, the presented spread graph suggests the intrinsic value of the US stock market isn't even half of the previous highs. Same graph with monthly candlesticks: Fundamentally: Although rate cuts are expected, historically they mark the...
TLT is at a very well-defined resistance level and overbought. The MACD is also elevated to the same level where we last saw a steep reversal in the price of TLT. To short TLT, I suggest the triple inverse ETN of TLT called TMV.
Yesterday, a 10-year bond portfolio was created in the market. The goal is to maximize profit when the price is between $109 and $110 by the expiration date of January 17, 2024. This one requires careful observation.
What a turnaround for ALL the MAJOR averages! As we've been saying over and over again....... The END OF DAY IS WHAT MATTERS!!! *Indices formed an OUTSIDE DAY* Outside days can signify 2 things: CONTINUATION OR REVERSAL (of the current trend) Being that the day ended lower, LIGHT VOLUME though, we will take this as a WARNING!!!!!!! RSI fell pretty hard,...
NASDAQ:TLT is an ETF that tracks value of United States Treasury Bonds in the time range of the 20-30-year bonds. With this ETF tracking the bond value it will rise with the decrease in these bond yields as the previous bonds offering higher % rates increase in value. I am bullish on TLT for a few reasons that are summarized in the bullets below - Interest...
We have our first indication of a top in bond yields with price overlapping and losing it's impulsivity to the upside. However, a top is not confirmed until yields breach 3.40% which is our wave 4 of one lesser degree. To do so should confirm the beginning of our wave 2 decline into the target box, and over time.
Good Morning! It certainly makes sense for #mortgagerates to follow the bond counterparts & go lower The monthly chart shows the RSI weakening as it chugged higher. LONG term, the 3rd chart, we see that rates overcame a STRONG RESISTANCE area & long downtrend, white line. We will soon see if it'll hold that new support, white line. #RealEstate #InterestRate
TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis. US10yr bond yields finding bullish reversal off lower range of descending parallel channel (white) - further momentum pending upcoming 10yr auction + US economic data. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish reaction to macro economic news = continued momentum to break above descending trend-line (white dashed) towards 38.2%...
TVC:US10Y versus SP:SPX inverse correlation analysis. Work in progress indicator for anticipating market trend switches. Notes: Emerging correlation identified within US10Y/SPX ratio. Spikes in ratio (orange vertical line, dotted) aka bond yield ROC/volatility = higher probability of risk-off sentiment (ie big tech & growth stock rotation). Correlation...
A rare chart pattern second in predictive power to only the famous head and shoulders is the Bump and Run Reversal (BRR) technical pattern. school.stockcharts.com If it is so powerful, why is it so unheard of? 1) They are rare. But a recent BRR of very high consequence is the 2022 DXY chart. 2) They usually only occur on high time frames as they measure...
JUST SAYING....... NOT implying that the party is over BUT heed some signs by treasury. 1Yr #yield is fighting to close above the 10day Mov Avg (RED). 2 Yr has a possible 3rd day trading above the RED Mov Avg. 10Yr fighting to get above the recent trend it broke & Moving Avg's. US #Dollar has been fighting & looks to be gaining momentum. We'll see how this does...
CME_MINI:NQZ2023 - PR High: 16114.00 - PR Low: 16082.00 - NZ Spread: 71.5 Key economic calendar event 13:00 | 10-Year Note Auction Highlight for the week: Bonds and FOMC Trading in prev 2 week highs Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 213.00 - Volume: 20K - Open Int: 226K - Trend Grade:...