The FED has already cut the rates by 50 bps in an "emergency meeting" last week. The US02Y indicates that that was not enough and more cuts are needed. If history is any indication, we're looking at another cut of 50 bps or even 75 bps very soon .
Buy: 3/13 164 Call Sell: 3/13 162 Call Sell: 3/13 149 Put Buy: 3/13 147 Put Net Credit: $45 Max Loss: $155
Anyone who's followed me for more than a year knows I've been calling for 158-160 on $TLT from the mid 120s. With last week's spike, we have now hit the upper bound of the long term channel (5th time) and the 161.8 Fib extension. This would be a logical area to pull back #bonds
Look to book profits into wave v upside at 163-165
Earlier this year, investment bank JP Morgan smashed estimates because it had bought a bunch of long-term bond funds ahead of last year's interest rate cuts, and the funds increased in price accordingly. (When rates go down, long-term bond prices go up.) I've been expecting futures markets to start forecasting an interest rate cut, as they did today, but it didn't...
With equities looking increasingly volatility and valuations as frothy as ever, long term bonds have been quietly outperforming recently. I expect this trend to continue for foreseeable future and for us to rise 5-13% from here conservatively. The global climate is shifting to reducing risk and buying safe haven assets. Therefore, 20 year bonds will likely...
With the markets pricing in a 95% chance of a 25bps to 50bps rate cut, longing 20 year bonds seems like one of the highest confidence trades in the market. I am bullish on 20 year bonds specifically, and will continue to be until we see a rate hike which I believe is far, far away. We are likely heading into a global recession within the next 12-18 months, so I...
Many equity charts look similar. Amazing how gains from October.3rd/2019- February 20th/2020 got erased in 6 days. We are now in a downtrend, and we should expect a lower high to be made. I am looking for this swing as long as we remain below the break out zone indicated by the arrow at the 3230 zone. Have some fib targets to watch out for where I will await and...
Dates in the future with the highest probability for price direction reversals
The past two times we saw the 3-month vs 10-year treasury yields invert and the Federal Reserve make drastic cuts to the Federal Funds Rate were during the 2000 dot.com bust and the 2008 financial crisis. Each were accompanied by significant stock market declines/crashes. Today we have the 3-month and 10-year yields inverted(two inversions in less than a year)...
FOLKS, EVERYONE, WELL MOST, POSTED NEGATIVE COMMENTS WHEN WE SAID GOLD WAS A BUBBLE RUNNING ON HYPE, FEAR, PANIC AND MOST OF ALL, "FAKE NEWS" WELL...GOLD DROPPED LIKE A ROCK FROM ITS HIGH TODAY LIKE WE SAID WAS GOING TO HAPPEN WE MADE ALMOST $20 FROM TODAY'S HIGH SHORTING GOLD WHEN IT HIT $1688.66..!!! AFTER HOURS ITS STILL SINKING AND VERY ACTIVE AS TRADERS...
Over 150 today! Coming into a major decade long TL near 152-153. Nice trade if took the setup
www.RefiwithJustin.com if you own a home in Colorado or Texas! Monthly view of the 10 year yield here. Yield touched current levels in 2012 in anticipation of QE3. Again in June 2016 over Brexit. 3rd time in August/September of trade war. 4th - Coronavirus? I would bet this is this what initiates the break down. 10 yr around 1% or lower coming soon?
With inflation rearing its head of late, and sectors of the economy prone to deteriorate due to coronavirus, narrow junk bond spreads will likely widen - pushing down the prices of high yield bonds.
Needs to unwind after an excessively bullish week + shooting star daily. Target would be a backtest of the breakout 142-144.
Yet another “lead” indicator of the historical rally in equities. A good heads up to the real underlying trend. The TLT ETF just broke out in multiple time frames, weekly & daily. Heading to the top of channel just like in early 2016!
The short end of the bond market and very long end are safest bets. But inflation pressure and slowing economy will cause the 10 year yields to rise and prices to fall.
Safety in the bond market is at the very short end (as short rates rise, can reinvest at higher rates) and the very long end (rates should decline as economic news deteriorates due to stalled Chinese economy). Most risk is in the 10 year range.