SPX Year-ahead forward consensus expected earnings divided by average of Moody’s Aaa and Baa bond yields comparison with SPX index, SPX based on this metric is at present time not expensive, but relatively cheap.
Actually we are in a KL so we need acumulation before nothing, after this acumulation, the value has done the point 3 of the uptrend and it's already retested, the third confluence to buy is Fibonacci that gives us the information that the value needs to go up, so we can say that XAUUSD WILL RISE it's value.
Consolidation may be required before higher
Like we've been posting, the China flu is nothing but a scare tactic by the FAKE NEWS! With the State of the Union address coming within a few days, GOLD is down and the economy is BOOMING! President Trump will not let the US Stock Market Crash so forget about it folks. Short sellers will continue driving this market higher as they are forced to cover....
Fibs very significant on way down, but not such much since reversal. Nevetheless trend is up. Here's an approximate plot based on fibs. Note yields currently oversold (Bonds are inverse of yields, best ETF is IEF
If you follow my work, I have said that stocks will continue to move higher because there is nowhere to go for yield. Central banks have suppressed interest rates where equities are the only place to go. The time to sell stocks will be when interest rates SPIKE. Likely in the double digits. This chart of the ten year US yield, is very important as the 10 year...
10's minus 03 Mo's Reinversion of Sovereign Debt Yield Curve 19:34:22 (UTC) Thu Jan 30, 2020
Looking at 30 year UST yields key levels are at 2.2% and 2.4% on the weekly chart. Break and close above 2.4% could indicate we have bottomed, but close below 2.2% and we're probably heading lower, meaning the rally in yields (sell-off in bonds) was a retracement of the heavy buying buying before the rally in treasuries continues.
Quick setup that i am watching (but not going to take due to portfolio skew is already net short) Ticker: TLT Position: - March 20th 2020 Expiry - $137 Strike Call - Delta = 0.70 - Cost = $4.18/ contract (mid offer) Profit Target/ Exit: - Initial target = $144 - Exit = close below the daily 200 SMA
french 50 year bonds are trading within a very important supply zone. there is a high chance to see the retracement from this level in the direction of the trend. Targets are 129.5 / 127.1 stop 134.1
We saw massive block trades today in Daily Edge Live at the upper red dark pool level. We had these blocks on Friday as well. Bearish. See attached TV idea below for additional reasons. Jan 21 📈 $SPY 📊 2,873,655 😱 ⚫️ #DarkPool 💵 332.14 Jan 14 📈 $TLT 📊 6,683,190 😱 💵 138.82
50Y gb bonds are standing on the decision level. being broken to the downside, bears will most likely push the price lower to a current market low. bearish bias is also based on the clear and strong bearish trend. intitial target level is 0.83 but in case of a breakout there will be also a possibility for futher bearish continuation with a formation of a new ll.
We are finally breaking this big wedge I have been monitoring for awhile. Last week we had a big $TLT print that was just huge. Jan 14 📈 $TLT 📊 6,683,190 😱 💵 138.82 We are well above that now and I think a big move is coming.
That’s right, the most hated bull market in history is about to get a bit more bullish if the TLT is to be believed. It might suggest a higher, broader move in markets. Keep an eye out friends! If you find these ideas useful, please like and consider following me. Let’s make money together!
US 10 year bonds is trading within a triangle pattern on a daily. on 4H we have a perfect match of a harmonic bearish abcd pattern and a falling resistance line of the triangle. based on this analysis I believe that the market will drop from the underlined area! target levels are based on a horizontal structure and the triangle's support!
TLT wave 4 consolidation in progress. Once complete, expect a terminal push higher into wave 5 targeting the upside level
Since the YC inversion in August last year (2019), there has been a "crack" in correlation between the US02Y and USDJPY. I expected the YEN to strengthen as the Japanese short the dollar against the YEN to hedge against the rising US Govt bond prices (due to the rate cuts) considering Japan holds a significant amount of US Govt debt. My initial thoughts on this is...