We just received the 25 basis points rate cut. The market had already priced it in.
Powell just released the statement. It seems to be a dovish one . He will start his speech at 2:30pm, where the market will try to understand the possibility of a 4th rate cut in December.
The CBOE Fed tool has the 4th cut in December at 26%.
We should see the yield curve...
The play for OTM calls on TLT right now is a good risk to reward for myself given the numerous positive potential outcomes. If they don't cut rates, I expect TLT to make a very nice upward move due to bond prices going up and maturity going down.
If they cut rates, I still expect bond maturities to go down and for TLT to go up.
With the current landscape I am...
updating the previous chart to look at how this is behaving. Keeps retesting neckline, yet it keeps getting rejected. If broken, this will rally a bit, but I still expect this to head south significantly.
The squeeze in Treasuries is coming soon. Right now, it's just getting started and testing the break. The narrative of deflation has picked up steam strongly in the past 2 months with oil now clobbered, Powell going dovish (today), stocks down, and many many other reasons.
Hi guys, I will be presenting a trade idea that is of a much larger scale. This trade idea involves predicting the next recession - something that is at the back of almost every investor's minds.
I will be proposing an open trade at 45.06, which is represented close to the fibonacci 0.786 level, a stop loss at the 51.94 level (which is close to the previous...
TLT has pulled back to a very key trend line with additonal supports coming in below. On the hourly chart, we have positive divergence on TLT meaning we should see upside soon in the short term. Given the postures of the markets and how treasuries act as a flight to safety asset, it is reasonable to assume they will go up in price as stocks fall.
For this trade,...
Using a weekly chart to predict the path of short term interest rates, it appears lower rates are ahead. The path toward lower interest rates which continues to keep the inflation game going.
Here is an excerpt from The Macro Strategist's Parallax Report: QE Lite, You Say?, originally posted on 10.2.19:
Here are the “negative yield” trade. Bitcoin and gold had been the go-to allocation as global negative yielding debt rises (and falls) with the monthly correlation exceeding .70.
BTCUSD began to deteriorate ahead of gold, and this is interesting...
we think that now russian state debt market is in final stage of its growth. It is obvious fact that it will lead to strengthen of Russian ruble or ruble will be stable relatively.
I save this chart so i don't have to remake all this chart setup later.
If us bonds go up it will strengthen dollar, if german bonds go up it will strengthen euro, so we look for divergence where 1 goes up and second goes the other.
TLT been on a tear to the downside with how bullish SPY has been. I like this one to the upside if SPY settles and drops back to EMAs. TLT also about to touch the 89d EMA which has always been a great buy area.
![XAUUSD: Gold [UPDATES BELOW]](https://s3.tradingview.com/i/ikYZViqX_mid.png "Gold [UPDATES BELOW]")
