2000s: East Asia economic slowdown, every bank governor and president/prime minister wants to print money and lower rates. The west (NA EU JP) goes "no you fools! do you want to end like zimbabwe?". And so East Asian countries do not go that route, take the full hit of a recession, and get out stronger. 2020: China is solvant, USA has NaN liabilities. The west at...
The 10 year has rebounded off the major 1M Support this month, making a statement with last week's strong 1W candle. This marked a Triple Top formation on the 1M scale (since 2012) and the trend shift becomes obvious. 1D is trading near overbought territory (RSI = 70.811) pushing the 1W towards neutrality (RSI = 42.781, ADX = 58.406, Highs/Lows = 0.0000),...
Looks as if it could run to 30 to 34 just on a normal retracement
Coming off of the highs that tested the long-term channel. Will be watching for a test of this top in November-December. A failure to break out might lead to a trip to the bottom of the channel.
ZN1! 10 Year T-Note Futures . Extreme Prediction Modeling Architecture on a One Week Time-frame. The following chart is an very experimental Extreme Long Range Prediction Model, using quantum graphing decoding protocols that were developed to tease out very complex long-range modeling architectures... This has mostly common sense schematics outlined.. Find the...
ZF1! 5 Year T-Note Futures. Extreme Prediction Modeling Architecture on a One Week Time-frame. The following chart is an very experimental Extreme Long Range Prediction Model, using quantum graphing decoding protocols that were developed to tease out very complex long-range modeling architectures... This has mostly common sense schematics outlined.. Find the 5...
Can you handle this?
ZT1! 2 Year T-Note Futures Extreme Prediction Modeling Architectures The following is an very experimental Extreme Long Range Prediction Model, using quantum graphing decoding protocols that were developed to tease out very complex long range modeling architectures... This has mostly common sense schematics outlined.. Find the 2 year cycle patterns. Decode the...
As market volatility has died down in recent sessions, off the back of calming geopolitical tensions in Hong Kong, as well as between US-China, it appears that the $DJI has broken out of its "Channel" formation and is moving higher. Given this move, the $DJI is trying to make a run for 26,876 - a Key Monthly Resistance Level (Blue) for the index. One thing to...
Probably the most basic rotation investment strategy, is the switching strategy between the S&P 500 US stock market (SPY) and long duration Treasuries (TLT). The SPY-TLT ETF pair is a very interesting investment strategy, because most of the time these two ETFs profit from an inverse correlation. If there is a real stock market correction, then Treasuries like TLT...
Stocks are inverse to bonds. Take the measily little rate your being offered for safety? TLT needs to touch the top trend line once again before reversing. Worst scenario, it breaks through the top trend line, and we have a market crash with a sound you can hear on Mars. That actually could happen because we are in currency fantasy land. Paying someone to hold...
Hello Traders! Today’s chart will be on the good old AMAZON, Potential Triple Top!? Points to consider, - Price failed to break the $2042.05 Region, posing a potential triple top - Price currently testing local support but looks weak - Stoch and RSI are both neutral - EMA’s are currently bearish - Volume is below average - Fibonacci extension is in...
Dow Versus Bonds. Measure whether Dow is overbought or oversold versus Bonds. It doesn't matter which one we use, I just use 30 year for simplicity, similar chart for 10 year. Able to pinpoint relative high and relative low. Relative high region is where one needs to be cautious and take profit. Relative low region is where dow looks cheap and may be suitable to...
They said that stocks are expensive. But they forget the other side. Record amount of money in negative yielding government bonds. Bond market is at all time high. The bubble will continue. The question is, which bubble is bigger? Stocks or bonds? When will the bond market collapse? A simple inverted chart of German 30 year bonds yield. I need to shift it by 1...
M timeframe BULL W timeframe BULL D timeframe NEUTRAL GOLD/SPY turning negative BULL SPY/TLT stocks vs. bonds turning positive BULL US10Y overextended BUY TRADE WAR hopes BULL MARKET overreacted BULL DATA above consensus BULL % SP500 stocks above 200SMA > 50 support BULL RSI > 50 momentum BULL RSI support 40 hold BULL VOLUME buy momentum BUY MACD bears loosing...
How to easily understand the yield curve inversion. I also show you a method to plot the difference between the bond yields.
TLT has outperformed SPX by roughly 6% at time of writing. Many factors: FED cushioning rates, yield chasing by entities in negative-yield countries, fears of global slowdown, escalating trade war, and the perceived invincibility of U.S. markets. There could be a seriously nasty rate spike within the next 2 years. As yields drop there is less incentive for...
As investors continue to feel nervous about the health of the global economy, the $US10Y-$US03MY curve continues to invert, with the spread plunging below its Monthly Support Level of -0.457 (blue) to reach -0.502, a level that has not been seen since March 2007. Investors should continue to remain cautious when it comes to their asset allocation, as dark clouds...