THOSE LONG TERM TRENDS ARE IMPORTANT. Remember how the 10 & 30 Yr #yield BROKE daily trends? Well, they are both still in play, for TVC:TNX it is in better shape. Let's see how they close. 30 Yr struggling a bit more to recover that close under the trend. #mortgage rates have also fallen decently.
As I wrote in my last post on TLT, I had a target of $88. $88 was hit on Friday and is now slightly below it today. I went long both via spot and calls. I took March 15 2024 calls at a $101 strike price and I'm anticipating a large move higher playing out by then. I've marked off resistance levels on the chart. Let's see how it plays out over the coming...
US10Y breaking support. Good entry on bond etf's. Only picking up a small amount to get in the door. ZROZ, EDV, and TLT.
Economic Policy needs to remain restrictive or should tighten further, until clear signs of easing inflationary conditions are available. Technicals Favor: Strong yearly candle Favor: Strong M BiMS Favor: M BiMS after ATL Favor: Multiple BSL Levels higher Currently at 10Y High Expectation Downside Retracement Targets (careful Short Term) 1 - 2.057% (Y SIBI...
billy-billy-no, soros, rothschild, blackrock, rockie and the creepy ghost of kissinger are pumping money, printing as fools and ripping the market off. Therefore we see the t-note really overbought. Just do the same like these evils and sell puts on ZN1! january contract at 110,25 strike price and fvckthem. Collect the premium.
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is pulling-back towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and bottom of the Rising Wedge. The pattern is getting too tight and the squeeze will inevitably result in a break-out and new trend/ pattern. If the Rising Wedge breaks downwards, it will mean the end of the yield's +3.5 year bullish run and will have a high...
The US10Y is approaching an oversold technical state on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 34.650, MACD = -0.086, ADX = 44.537) as selling was accelerated this week after failing to get close to the 1D MA50. The long term pattern is a Channel Up and the decline since Octobet 23rd is the new bearish leg. The one prior hit the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the rally and then...
TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis for last week of November. TBC further details/write-up via ideas section, cheers.
Following bullish divergences in volume, bonds look poised to extend the move following dovish commentary from the Fed today. First target: $71.80
We might anticipate a strong bullish movement if the bond price successfully rebounds back into the green zone. This is solely my personal opinion and not financial advice. It's crucial to conduct your own research before making any decisions.
In 2022, the stock market took a hit and the US Dollar gained strength due to higher yields in the US. Toward the end of that year, as yields eased off, the US Dollar lost some of its power, and this coincided with a rebound in stock market performance. Now, as yields are climbing once again, the US Dollar is regaining strength, but it seems like stocks are...
There is a Bearish Bat with Bearish Divergence on the TLT, which could perhaps be signaling that the 20-year Bond Auction is going to demand higher yield than the current level.
Analysis of yesterday's CME options market transactions shows that the market participants are positive about the prospects of the long bonds, betting on its growth to $111.5 within 20-30 days.
The US CPI came down more than expected yesterday at 3.2% y/y, and as a result the USD fell sharply with US yeilds, while stocks and metals are on the rise. For now, this seems to be a very important data as it causes also a very important breakdown on USD index and US yeilds. Looking at the US yeilds, we have five waves down, so it means that top is in place,...
Quick update on some calls that we made not long ago. Keep in mind that many were bullish on yields at the time. We stated that TVC:DXY was topping. We also believed that #yields topped, especially longer term. What has happened since then? US #dollar cratering. TVC:TNX , 10 Yr, 2YR & shorter frames are also rolling over. Last night we stated that #stocks...
Another reason to get involved in options research analysis. Yesterday and last Friday, 10-year bonds options contracts on the CME were found which have a predictive component in the form of sharp price movement in any direction. Today's 10-Year Bonds chart has fully realized this sentiment, allowing the most informed participants to capitalize well. And did you...
The NASDAQ:TLT , or the 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF, appears to be undergoing a significant shift in its trend dynamics based on your description. Here's a breakdown of what you're observing: 1. **Bearish to Bullish Reversal**: This indicates that the ETF, which was previously in a downtrend (bearish phase), is showing signs of reversing to an uptrend (bullish...
As we had a massive push up by buyers last week, now we are in zone that we need to have more cautious. buyers were trapped there before, and we expect a little rotation to lower levels and then a decision to where we are going. Attention for ES and RTY wich are relentless to the resistance zone now. VIX very low, and expectation is to increase a...