May's "Risk Off" has catapulted Long-Term Corporate Bonds (LQD) and 20+ Year Treasury Bonds (TLT) into two of the top 5 performing assets YTD: LT Corp Bonds: +10.41% 20+Year Treasuries: +9.02%
Altough most of the proes out there are used to wait a retest before entering a long position (I love retests too in specific markets, and when certain criteria are matched), I can tell you that TECHNICALLY retest are the worst thing that can happen during a breakout. It weakens momentum and confidence in speculator. You get closer to where most of the stops are...
At the moment, the key factor determining the dynamics of the Russian currency is the inflow and outflow of money in Russian bonds. The current rubble appreciation is associated with a new influx of non-residents in GOV Bonds. Wave analysis of Eliot showed that at the moment we are drawing A to ABC (B is of a higher order), which means that the rubble will...
Regardless of the fundamentals that are dominating the global economic scene (trade wars), there is an interesting long term, and rather cyclical from the looks of it, pattern developing on the U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield. The pattern is a declining Head and Shoulders formation on 1W. The last two times that the same pattern emerged (in 2017 and in 2015 -...
The whole world was glued to twitter waiting for an update on the trade war from President Trump. However what they received was rather anticlimactic: a tweet about saying we don't need to rush a trade deal, which was later deleted. It is likely the markets will interpret this as a risk-off event, since they were really expecting more clarification. Currently,...
Bonds have been gradually overbought owing to a slew of risk off factors including global economic fears, and the trade war. At this point, we may be due for a corrective phase by the end of the week. There is a representative from China flying in, so this may provide a much needed respite from the doom and gloom. The Kovach Momentum Indicators suggest that...
Bitcoin to 7K by August then retracement back as gloomy Autumn, Winter and Spring settles in heading into the next year. HNWI moving into bonds and safer assets as they have reaped the gains now. I expect markets will cool off between 2020 and 2022 just as they did in 2000 to 2002 and 2010 to 2012. Best regards, Grey
Looking at SPX with a wide trading range Retraced to the 618 fib with a perfect bounce but that's is also a V bottom that will most probably be retested POC sitting at 2070 Bullish volume dropping off meaning we could see a drop in price which also coincides with the indicators showing over bought. OBV still looking healthy Could we see all time highs this year?...
Description: This weekly chart shows the long term correlation between the VIX (in orange) to the corporate bond yield spreads. The light blue line shows the BAML investment grade bond index yields a spread of 3.9% above the 10 year treasury. The white line shows the yield spread between investment grade BBB bonds and BB speculative grade. Widening credit...
LSE:RUSB is an ETF on 22 investment grade Russian USD denominated eurobonds. At current moment RUSB trades at significant discount to its own basket. This is a unique buying opportunity that can be captured either by long only investrors or by arbitrageurs. In case of long only - buy at 23.90 and hold enjoying the recovery of Russian eurobonds or put a sell order...
As Q2 2019 is underway, global financial markets have experienced a melt-up in assets prices, with some markets up over 20 percent year-to-date. However, despite the run in global asset prices, there is one country that has missed out on the rally, and that is Malaysia. Malaysian equities ( EWM ) (INDEX:KLSE) have declined -3.77% in 2019, taking the mantle as...
As Q2 2019 is underway, global financial markets have experienced a melt-up in assets prices, with some markets up over 20 percent year-to-date. However, despite the run in global asset prices, there is one country that has missed out on the rally, and that is Malaysia. Malaysian equities (EWM) (INDEX:KLSE) have declined -3.77% in 2019, taking the mantle as the...
As Q2 2019 is underway, global financial markets have experienced a melt-up in assets prices, with some markets up over 20 percent year-to-date. However, despite the run in global asset prices, there is one country that has missed out on the rally, and that is Malaysia. Malaysian equities ( EWM ) (INDEX:KLSE) have declined -3.77% in 2019, taking the mantle as...
2YY is falling after a retest of the multi-decade trend. This will be the fourth time in history. These are followed by a major bear market and recession.
LQD is an ETF that tracks investment grade corporate bonds. www.ishares.com In this study I compare the LQD with SPY that tracks S&P 500 index. Upon review of turning points one can conclude that the corporate bonds start to go down first and recover first hinting the broader market direction. 04/07/2019
A number of string events appear to be shifting the economic landscape around the world of late. Extreme euphoria one year ago ("Economies are booming, time to raise interest rates more"), turned into panic at the end of 2018 with slowdowns across the board. The prompt support provided by US officials (is keeping markets going up their job?), made everyone forget...
The ten year yield peaks about 6 months to 14 months before two consecutive quarters of negative growth (a technical recession). Right now, from our peak in this current cycle we are 6 months divorced from a peak in the yield. Moreover, 3 year over 10 year yields inverted recently a signal that a recession is in the not too distant future. However, massive...