Currently, we have Index Rally 2622 and Key Resistance 2585 to observe, while there is Mean Support 2450 and Key Support 2352 level established on the downside to be revisited in near-term. See tab for full Market Commentary - Jan 5.
Alright folks, I identified a sell zone in dollar (dxy) way back in May 2018. In October we reached the zone (linked), and since then we've kind of stagnated below the sell zone. Now- with the holidays out of the way, my prediction stays true- Dollar will be a sell in 2019. Not only does my method line up with the prediction, but now fundamentals are starting to...
For BND...the 79.80 level is where the problems are. If it breaks up through the 79.80 level decisively the entire Yield Curve will have to invert until everything unwinds. A rejection would be tell tale of Central Bank intervention. They would be buying stocks and forcing everyone into stocks instead of Bonds.
The rate of Bonds is at a very interesting place as highlighted in the chart! In depth exploration in the video below: youtu.be
IEF has bounced off of its double top created during the recession. This has created a hard support. Not only that it has bounced off of it before in a similar fashion between 2013 and 2014. Volume is dramatically increasing at this level, the moving averages are flattening out. All of these are bullish signals. * This information is not a recommendation to...
I believe NASDAQ:TLT is breaking out. The main thesis I have been following is global slowdown is coming within the next 2 years. If this occurs the Fed's hand will be forced to stimulate the economy by having constant or lowering rates. From this we can derive that NASDAQ:TLT must go up since rates and bonds are inversely related. Finally with ...
During several previous liquidity crisis in 2001,2008,2012, 2016 the investment grade corporate yields spread over treasuries hit 200+ bps ... right now at an average spread of 150 basis points, may suggest more pain ahead before capitulation is reached. In other words investment grade corporate bond yields may be still too low. Based on what we've seen during...
Despite continuing equity market weakness today, TLT had a reversal on it's daily candle (not shown). Looking at the resistance line shows that it was violated, but only briefly before racing back below, indicating a reversal of direction. Should easily come back down to around $119 and potentially $116 as a more aggressive target. Could even indicate a...
Good day folks, TLT has been on a very bullish ride since November, however it should correct a bit in the short term. The RSI is in the roof and resistance started to show up at 122. There is also a gap to be filled at 116, which is my target. Following is my position: CALL TBT 2019JAN18 36.00 (filled @ 0.43$) *I will be at the cottage next week and it is...
Rising wedge showing signs of major pullback and contraction of bond market.
This was an experiment to find any relevant patterns or correlations between US Bonds/equities. Nasdaq was not included due to it's high %'s skewing the perspectives on the chart Green vertical lines were "buy signals", and the red lines were sells. The result is that there definitely is some correlation here with the "oversold"/overbought" position on US 30yr...
US10 US02 This may not look like something to watch and you may not know about it. Only about 2% of investors understand it, however 98% of institutional traders (the “smart money”) watch it like the World Cup finals. Its the 10 year treasury yield to the 2 Year treasury yield ratio/spread. Bottomline: If it goes negative (hits the dotted yellow line) =...
The bond market looks like it is reaching it's peak overbought condition in the short term. This might bring some stability to the stock market. I am closely watching the 50 DMA line which is flat and might reverse it's trend to start moving higher. I would sell TLT in the short term and buy on dips. I will watch for a break in the downtrend line I highlighted...
Looks like SPX may have a triple top which is bearish. We may test the previous lows and if we break those lows, triple top will be confirmed and we're going down. Any thoughts? Happy to learn..
A nice high-probability midpoint here (circled) - the midpoint here is the price level where strong upwards momentum suddenly erupted (50% fib level goes here). Target zone is roughly 121'05 and up. Looking for stocks to put in at least a swing low when bonds hit this level.
Good day folks, There is a Head & Shoulder on TLT, which suggest some short-term downside. The pattern is completed, and the price is sitting on neckline; this is a good time to get in. Thank you,