The minute leading diagonal has clearly broken the larger downward wave, which ended in a larger ending diagonal... Expect a short term pullback to the wave iv level and then a continued rise at least 1.618 times the length of this first leading diagonal wave... Short term pullback would be consistent with a modest recovery in equities early next week before a...
Combination news and technical analysis play. Buy could have been earlier. But buying opportunities still exist.
We may show some short term demand on bonds because of equities volatility that I already expect. But I think anyway the EU bond market will remain under the bigger catalyst that this market will have to forecast new prices to settle to after ECB will pull out in december. My trading plan here is to remain bullish on the december future expiration and buying all...
Seems the narrative at the moment is rates are about to shoot higher...Not according to the chart. Momentum has weakened throughout this rally since '16 and can count possible 5 waves up. If rates fall, then means a rush into bonds, and maybe indicating a risk-off move. The FED announcement should give this the momentum to move one way or the other.
Bonds have broken a ranging period that they've held for months. Yields are near 7-year highs. That being said there's a big retracement starting to form on 30min/4hour charts so watch for it to test one of the Fibs. As you see it just broke 236 so it’s likely it will make a run for 382. The Kovach Indicators seem to confirm this. It seems we will likely...
The Bond Auction went well as expected that could help the Bond Yield which could underpin the Dollar. Bond Auction for the 10Y later today and expecting a Demand>Supply situation as well. EURUSD -0.13% have been ranging between 1.17xx handle and 1.16xx (Accumulation) and I am picking a downward direction if the pair attempts to expand its range for September....
Recent NFP report was very positive and this confirms our long term view on US interest rates upside trend. Now, there is 99.8% probability of Fed rate increase to 2.25% in September and 77.58% probability of rate increase to 2.5% in December. Prob. has increased for ~10% due last NFP data. It totally confirms the technical picture that we have.
Good day folks, A basic idea as usual. TLT have been oversold twice. Looks like it could bounce up, and maybe, fill the gap. There is also a big green candle that gives some support to this idea. Thank you,
=> Our thesis of the multi month consolidation in the 10 year offering buying opportunities has been confirmed via the recent crisis in Turkey and the associated plunge in commodity prices. => There is no one size fits all framework here yet as yields have been all over the place since we confirmed 3% for the headlines. This is really just the tip of the iceberg,...
Bullish structure developing in the 10y vs 2y yield curve after a breakout of the most recent swing low. Should the shift towards the upside extend, it adds support to the current recovery in the US Dollar as it communicates an improved outlook for the US economy and consequently, the market may factor in a more hawkish Fed.
RISING RATES! RISING RATES! RATES MUST GO UP! RATES CAN'T GO LOWER! BUY THE BANKS! RISING RATES! Okay, you get the point. That's the battle cry of pundits these days. However, rather than try to predict the future, I like to keep it simple and just analyze the charts. So, what I see, being the simple minded creature that I am, is a simple head and shoulders...
Measured moved based on H&S break has this moving approximately 10%. We're currently looking at a retest of the break, but it's fading fast. When combined with the record net-short interest here, this could be a fast move, and could even invert the yield curve in one fell-swoop. If so, this would be reminiscent of the 2000 yield curve inversion, which happened...
The 10 Year has just bounced off near the 120'20'0 Resistance on 1D and based on the neutral 1W action (RSI = 46.325, STOCH = 54.180, Highs/Lows = 0.000), it should reverse towards the 119'02'5 support. Our short's TP is 119'09'0.
I posted a while back that the "rising rate" mantra may not be as sure as most think. To recap my view in brevity: Rates are up against a multi-decade long falling trend line, so it'll take more than a few sessions or weeks to overcome. I do believe that rates will be higher if you're looking out years or even decades, but shorter- to intermediate- term, the...
New week, updated the dashboard. Swapped out Commodities and Emerging Markets for Dow Futures and Eurodollar futures. Bonds and Notes looking bullish here, the biggest surprise to everything and everyone would be a bond price rally (rates dropping). Everyone is expecting rate hikes, like nearly 100% Will generate a trade idea this week for bonds or notes....
Italy's Deputy PM DiMaio confirms markets' fears: this morning he said that respecting fiscal rules is not the priority in the next budget. Until 94.00 is broken to the upside, pressure still remains. Better picture if we hold here below 93.00 and push towards 90.00 again.
The 30 year treasury yield has traded under 3.25% for almost 4 years now. The Fed continues to hike rates on a quarterly basis and Trump is unhappy about rising rates. Every day we hear how the economy is 'in great shape', and jobs data is 'as good as it gets'. More significantly what is pushing up rates are increased treasury issuance and the Fed's...