AUD/USD Short. Due to Gold shock or DXY Strength? RIsing intrest Rates may make bond yields more attractive for most as equities continue they're exhausted bull run. For the Time Being, The AUD/USD looks to be heading lower towards more Regional Support at .7750
At the end of last September I called for the drop in the 10-year US T-notes with quite aggressive target (see related idea). In this and the next update I came to the thought that the drop could be over earlier as rates are reaching important resistance level. Despite the aggressive tone on the rate rise in US, I think the upside is limited based on this...
Still cannot know whether the underlying asset will be turning from the 1.382 / .50 or the 1.618 / .618 but there is a strong confluence on both levels which makes me believe that one of them which prove to be a a key reversal point. Also judging by the strong correlation between 10-Y yields and the DXY which is also nearing a major reversal point we could in...
With US rates rising significantly in the past couple of months - how should a trader play this Being structurally short $TLT offers significant upside with a Put Butterfly Spread We have outlined trade which can be accessed on profile however a summary is provided 2 Month Put Skew is 3.62 standard Deviations above its 1 year mean 2 Month Volatility is 1.58...
I'm adding to my short bonds position here now that I have another favorable stop above consolidation available. Short TLT via 115/124 put Diagonal for $6.07. Max Risk: $607 Max Win: As of now, it's $293 Target: Price at $115 Stop Loss: Price at $119.50 long 124 put: 80 delta short 115 put: 22 delta I'll likely continue to roll the short 115 put against to...
Treasury bonds are falling of a cliff following a bearish breakdown (see in the chart) Now testing an important support zone - Structure and also the neck line of a weekly H&S pattern That's a critical support zone! In case that it will fail to hold, we can see massive selling in bonds.
It's pretty late, I'm just catching up on some work I didn't do. TLT correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the long-term sector of the U.S. Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital 20+ Year Treasury Index. Fridays had a mid-day 'rip your face off' bounce from the lows in the overall market. I wasn't able to catch it by the time I...
The correction from the ATH was inevitable as the Dow broke well above it's long term growth channel. What we've seen in the past few days is hungry hungry bears beginning to feed when the 10 year T Note reaches the 2.85% yield mark with today being no different. What's important to recognize in this relationship is how the DOW bulls are attempting to hold on...
The Dow Jones Had Its Biggest Point Decline In History Today After A 2.5% Decline On Friday. (See Additional Charts At Bottom Of Description) The Dow was down 1,600 points (6%) at one point of the day but ultimately closed down 1,175 points, down 4.5 percent on the day and roughly 10% from all time highs! The US Stock Market is now negative for the year after...
The Junk / 20 Year Bond Ratio is showing early signals of continued if not increased appetite for stocks as an asset class. For anyone not familiar with this ratio, we're looking at HYG/TLT (or HYG/IEF which is also showing the same signs). In short here's what it means for you and me: Falling Ratio = Credit Spreads Rising (bad for stocks) Rising Ratio = Credit...
Price has broken the bullish trendline with a bearish gap.
Testing this gann |geo| setup. Price quickly moved out the first half intersect. Now testing down resistance. Cheers, Keops
Bund is hovering really nicely above major support at 160.40 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) and a bounce could occur at this level. If price breaks through our descending resistance line, this would add much more conviction to the potential bounce up to 161.88 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap...
An interesting fundamental analysis here. (APART FROM the fake news from Bloomberg with the Chinese not buying t-bonds anymore) This chart shows GOLD vs the 30 year treasury bond (US). Both are well known fundamental wealth preservation instruments at least for the last 30 years where they shown a huge correlation. So, both assets are competitors in the same...
US Generic 10 yr yields took a leap towards the reverse h&s neckline, 2.60% is the key level the watch. if yields breach above 2.60 music stops for the long EM trades for the short term! hedge longs especially fragile 5s ccy and bonds
In the following article, I go through the Q1 2018 macro outlook, by economy, asset class, and among a few industries: aff.whotrades.com
Note that this instrument is now trading below the Red Support line. In the past, such breaks, on several occasions were accompanied by a sell-off in risk assets, such as stocks.