We have a strong uptrend signal in treasury notes and potential for a big upside move. I'm currently long $TMF, as my proxy for this move, since $TLT was lower than 10 Year Note futures, offering a more interesting risk/reward (as per Tim West's posts). Right now, I think the move to the upside is confirmed, so, if you're not in, you could look into buying either...
Fundamental idea that term premia should revert back to historic norms supports this trade.
Just look, study and begin to see. If you know the rules about Action/Reaction, about the Forks, you have a better sense what potentially could happen when price reaches the centerline, or breaks out of the U-MLH and comes back ("overshoot" - "back to centerline" in pink). Follow each bar, from left to right...slowly...think about what's going on bevor going to...
Price action today is confirming the trend. Worth watching as traders seem to be pricing back in a "lower for longer" trajectory on interest rates.
We are getting the beginnings of our Harmonic Breakout to upside this AM. Targets Shown on Chart.
Daily Harmonic View on Long Bond in 2nd Day of Yellen Testimony tending long here with stop below 149'30
$TLT Gap Fill out of Triangle see stops targets in graph
Sell at 116.450 Stop loss is 117.460. Targets at least 111.
..in the 128 area? Against the generally accepted narrative of the Bond Bubble has Burst. What if a last hurrah as the optimism subsides and shelter is sought? Price action suggesting Yield down/Price up.
In this chart I analyze the recent uptrend in the Franc. It appears to have ran into a wall, where the election day's low and the Brexit low sit, as well as a massive volume level, which will take time to break. I'd rather be flat here, and wait, we can look to buy dips in this or the Euro, or Gold or Silver probably meanwhile. This can serve as a hedge against...
the idea: the main asset classes are negatively correlated (stocks, bonds, dollar, gold) so shorting its all should be a dynamically hedged position. Shorting : Dollar DXY x 2 Dow: US30 x 2 Gold: GC Bonds: ZN target: bottom of wedge, then yellow circle
If this signal works, we'll have a great rally into resistance, which could lead to a top, and a sideways consolidation for some time in the 6.75-7 range. I think this would align with other markets showing similar mixed signals regarding equities and the dollar, or with bonds and gold chopping around but finding buyers in the daily oversold lows. Bitcoin also...
After the hard selloff, TLT decided to flip back up the centerline. I patiently waited for this pullback to initiate a RiskReversal, which is in play since last week. Play it small and often and enhance your chance to fulfil the stats numbers. P!
long tlt. detailed analysis after market close
I think we'll see some kind of retracement in the massive trends we had in place accross the board. Overall, I'm looking to buy weakness in the dollar in the long term, and looking for good value stocks, shorting overvalued stocks if needed, but rarely, and navigating the main trends in commodities. Metals look poised to rally with bonds here, at least in the...
Price landed back on the blue A/R line. I see two possible ways: 1) Up and turn at the Centerline, then down to the L-MLH 2) Jump above the Centerline, quick test of it and then up to the "Scene Of Crime", how Shane would say For now, a play up to the Centerline would not be too shaby. Happy 2017 to all of you! P!
Projected scenario on bonds. Market may rally on the short term then stop and go lower. Cheers, Keops
USDJPY rejected a key level today at 116. We sold at 115.5 as we expect 116 to be the last area of resistance in this bullish run. Target is 111.2-110.8 then possibly lower.