Despite the bond bubble right now, I believe there's some room for another rally in bonds. The election of trump have seen stocks driven to record highs, and bonds/treasury/gold crushed. The longest stretch of inflows into US equities since 2014 when the dollar rallied 20%. Net short in 10 year bonds are currently at record lows: (-500,000) i.imgur.com (courtesy...
One of the most obvious trades out there. Pullback to mean would be KILLER value. Will be watching this closely and using Marty Armstrong's Socrates levels for confirmation. There is certainly a chance we continue down further to that next support trend line before pulling back. In that instance we may see a H&S formation occur with the right shoulder at fib.
The Bond Market. It is often overlooked by traders despite its instrumental role in the Global economy and determination of large macroeconomic trends. Major technical damage has been done across the board in the bond markets recently and this can be directly attributed to the new President of the United States. Donald Trump plans to explode an already enormous...
With clear divergence and a clear break of the EMA I expect Bonds to recover back up a little. Adding some positive deltas to my current positions on bonds, I will Buy The 164/166 Call Debit spread and Sell the 162 Put to finance the cost. That would put our break even below the Weakly trend line. Max Profit $2,171.88 Break even at 161'21 76% of profit
With the Dow divergence (the only major index to manage a new high) in full ''flight to safety'' mode there is not much space left for the bulls... Unless you are day trader, one should avoid long position at this point : the risk reward ratio is, well, not good ! As in 40 or less on the upside vs a downside of 200+. A lot of churning is going on and the bond...
Bonds usually bounce after huge sell offs before continuing to sell off. 2013 multi week sell off had mid week bounces to roughly 50% of previous week's range. good spot to buy some longer dated calls (dec?) at 126'235 for a bounce next week to around high 127s or low 128s+. RSI lowest in years, closed 4 days outside lower BB, very oversold. good...
Time to buy a small position in TLT. At the very least, we could be due for a rebound off the .50 fib level from the 2014 lows. Over the next year, it is more likely than not this will be seen as a buying opportunity although perhaps not the best spot, once again, risk reward seems quite nice. Also Chinese deflation risk is massive right now.
** Lock in you variable mortgage rates** - Better safe than sorry!
Despite ZB1 can tecnically go lower, I will try to call a bottom here. Surely, Donald Trump´s election haven´t been a cause of today´s movement but indeed accelerated the things. Will long on opening, with a SL order set at 152. TP1: 170, TP2: 185 Notice bullish divergence on Weekly Timeframe and also bullish divergence on Daily Timeframe
large drop in gold flowing to risky assets during Friday indicates downward pressure on gold RSI(14) forms hidden bearish divergence where CCI reach lower than -200 level. Only "Sell" position would worth reward-risk ratio but WAIT! for the pullback. ADX is lower but still more than 20, implying downward pressure on gold does not violate long-term upward momentum...
ZB1 futures show that the T-Bonds are finishing the correction which started back in July and are ready for one more leg up. Also, it would confirm that there will be no rate hike in December abd bond market would rally to a new historical highs before a big crash. Will long at 161´21 targeting 182 ish in a term of 4-6 months.
There is no question that credit markets have been distorted for a long-term, but, fortunately, if you are in tune with what is going on it help get you out of the way of a steam roller. High-yielding junk debt has been a huge trade this year as investors continued to seek yield despite valuations and a clear crowed trade. The chase for performance also led...
Technically Speaking Bonds closed below the pivot level at 132.50. The next level of support comes in at 127.50, right around the 100 week moving average. What to do? The R/R does not seem to favor being long or short at these prices. If 127.50 holds, a long position, stopping out under 125 makes sense. For now, nothing to do but sit on YOUR hands.
TNX has been rising very rapidly. Now it's above 200-daily moving average. RSI is signaling overbought, but one must remember that it can stay overbought for some time. Maybe investors are realizing something? twitter.com
Rebound from the low of 125.627 on the back of a bullish price RSI divergence and a bullish MACD crossover has run into resistance at 127.23, which is 23.6% Fibo resistance of the sell-off from 132.424-125.627. Given the bullish divergence on the 4-hr and bullish pin bar on the daily chart the odds of a break above 127.23 and a rise to 128.00 are high. Only a...
Bullish price RSI divergence on 4-hr chart followed by a rise to 127.00 levels suggests a retreat from Sep 27 high of 131.94 may have run out of steam and prices could rally further if the hurdle at 127.39 (Falling trend line + 23.6% Fibo) is breached. On the lower side, only a break below 125.84 would signal fresh sell-off.