On the 10 Year US Notes we see price undergoing a potential five wave drop, with price now trading in wave four as part of this drop. That said, price seems to be undergoing some slow and choppy price activity, which means wave four may unfold as more complex. As such we expect more overlapping price movement to come in play and probably a triangle correction will unfold.
Large oversupply of t-notes shown as a gap at 124.5, More space to the downside. Gold will follow. Gold is also near supply level.
Hey traders. Here I have provided some notes of mine for the very basics of the Elliott Wave 5 wave structure. I am open to constructive criticism. All of this info is derived from the Elliott Wave Principle Book. Thanks Everyone.
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When most people are fearing an asset bubble in treasuries, and after increasing fears of rising yields, with many doomsayers calling for the end of this 'bubble', and a rapid selloff, it's clear that $TLT has found support, and that we can take the long side if it breaks last week's high. An integral part in any portfolio, $CEF, and $TLT. See my previous $TLT...
10 year US notes fell in five waves from July highs so we can expect more weakness ahead which may drive stock market even higher. However, before continuation to the downside may continue on US treasuries we need a contra-trend reaction in three waves. Well, based on recent turn up we see price in wave a-circled of a three wave advance that may stop at former...
As I had explained in my previous post, it was likely to see an 'emotional high' in these instruments, followed by a sharp decline. After this break down, all these instruments are at a major support level once again, and in sync too. Notes: I'd get out of shorts here and maybe flip long in a few days. Gold: It might have some more room to fall, but if it...
Follow this chart for decision between US Treasuries and Gold.
If you caught this trade congrats...it's a nice move but it's time to trim some and pull down stops. If you missed this trade don't chase down here. Wait for another pullback. You can also take a look at the Bonds...they have yet to break down.
The Notes, like Goldie, are consolidating and ripe to break this week. We rolled to the June contract Friday and we are looking for a leas one more day of consolidation. We want to wait for a break of our levels before getting involved.
One target and stopped for us on the Notes. Looks like we were early on ti trade even though we believe lower note price are in the cards. We will keep our eye it...closely
The weekly chart on the Bonds is developing a signal. No matter what direction the wedge breaks we expect a 6-10 week move. Keep this chart front and center on computer.
Target #1 is in the books but there was a nasty reversal and it looks like the rest of our trade is in jeopardy. We will honor the stops.
The Notes trigger short for us. We are keeping stops a little tight as rumors spread about the FED. Regardless of any rumors we will manage the trade like all others.
We are in the Trigger Zone on the Notes and will be watching short term time frames for a trigger short. If we get the trigger then our final target will be a break of the lower wedge. REMEMBER: NO TRIGGER, NO TRADE!
30 Year Bond Chart...see the Notes post. Link below.