TASI how to trade the downtrend in TadawulSaudi stock market, also known as Tadawul, is the largest in the Middle East, and it has been in spotlight due to various economic reforms aimed at diversifying the country's economy and reducing its reliance on oil exports. The government's Vision 2030 plan includes initiatives to attract foreign investment, develop non-oil sectors, and privatize state-owned companies, which could contribute to the growth of the stock market.
Technical analysis:
- TASI has enjoyed a bull run to reach highs of 14,000 in May-22 from the Covid lows of 5,600 in Mar-20
- It is in downtrend since last 10 months and next support level is pre-Covid peak of May-19 at 9,386
- On daily timeframe, 200 DMA support is broken and price is headed downwards
- Volume is below average
- Negative directional movement
Strategy:
Price is trading in descending channel. Below strategies can be useful:
- Sell the top of channel
- Buy at the bottom of channel
- Buy if the price breakouts above the channel
Recommendation: SELL
Tadawul
Nowhere to HideEmerging markets have made some terrific gains in the past month, but I would caution with the path ahead. Take a look at the past year's performance of the Hang Seng, KOSPI, IBOVESPA. I've included a chart of the Tadawul, the Saudi stock index, which is significantly weighted in EEM, the emerging market ETF. These are not healthy charts, and rallies provide opportunities for shorting in my opinion.
EEM's breakout from its downtrend will be tested as it compresses between the 50 & 150 EMA's. As of right now, it needs to close above $39.20 to invalidate a daily Head & Shoulders pattern.
How Saudi Stock Market Sectors Performed During 2022?The chart illustrates how the Saudi stock market performed by sector in 2022, according to several indices of TADAWUL exchange:
• TASI: All Share Index (-7.53%)
• TBNI: Banks (-6.60%)
• TMTI: Materials (-14.34%)
• TTSI: Telecommunication (-11.57%)
• TENI: Energy (-1.02%)
• TISI: Insurance (-11.58%)
• TSSI: Software & Services (+21.63%)
• TRMI: Real Estate Mgmt & Dev't (-22.18%)
• TFBI: Food & Beverages (-3.75%)
• THEI: Health Care Equipment & Svc (+24.34%)
The percentage on the right represents the year-to-date performance.
TASI: 4261 Potential +40 % by Q1 2023This stock we have been interested in since IPO where company performance continue to beat estimates and price actions are reflecting classic technical analysis.
Shown on the chart are all significant price levels and previous structures that triggered them. We suspected an HVF back in May but the price corrected to reflect an even larger HVF that broke up to the upside recently in the past few days. While this trend hold we expect targets of + 23% by year end and + 40% by end of Q1 2023.
Of course many factors may arise that invalidates our analysis but most importantly is to follow the price chart and place exit stops to protect your own gains.
All the best
FBH