Morning Ideas July 14, 2022Good morning traders,
We continue to come down to the bottom of the volume here, and we are now below 3775.
I'm looking for a flush lower before we see any kind of sustained buying, but there is always the risk of selling the lows and getting stuck. I will look to sell a rally, and then cover on a flushout lower and look to get long again.
It's a bit risky to bottom fish in a market that is really having trouble holding onto higher prices.
Takeprofittrader
Morning Ideas July 13, 2022CPI numbers were red hot this morning, and the market is down big.
It brings us right to the level 3775 that the market needs to hold. I think it could be a wide swinging outside day today, with a potential large red day if we can move below, and hold below 3775.
If we can't hold below 3775, I would expect the shorts to start to get squeezed out.
Morning Ideas July 8, 2022Good morning Traders,
a bit of a sleepy trade overnight, after testing 3900 area yesterday. I would expect us to continue to test those higher prices off of the open, and if we can squeeze through 3912ish, I think we make a run at 3975.
However, should we get some selling pressure off the open, I think it's more likely we bang into the volume below us and start to ping pong between the levels.
I think either way we get a test of 3910 area this morning and the market will tip it's hand.
Morning Ideas July 7, 2022Good morning traders!
Sleepy overnight session gets me thinking that we are going to try and push higher towards 3900.
The overall profile since weve fallen out of the big balance is a complete mess, and the market will likely clean up some of that by auctioning higher and churning between the high volume areas.
I"m looking for 3900 area today.
Morning Ideas July 5, 2022Good morning traders...
After the long weekend, the market is looking forward to a busy week. We have the FED on Wednesday, and the market has been volatile overnight.
I'm looking for the market to chop in here, and eventually test either 3725 or 3850. I don't want to get involved at this 3775 area as it is very thick in here (and unpredictable).
Morning Ideas June 30, 2022Good morning traders,
Last trading day of the month today usually means we get some window dressing, but I don't think we will get any today. The market has tested lower again overnight, and there is a weak low on the profile.
Long story short, I'm still looking for opportunities on the short side.
Morning Ideas June 29, 2022Good morning traders,
We had more selling yesterday than I expected. It leaves us with a pretty weak low from yesterday, even though the overnight session showed us balance.
I would expect to see at least a head fake lower this morning when the market opens for the regular session. If we are able to take back yesterdays low, we could see the market start to squeeze back towards the heavier volume above (3900)
Morning Ideas June 28, 2022Good morning traders,
I am happy to be back after almost a week away from the screens.
The market has come back to the monthly VWAP and is stuck at 3920 area that was highly traded on the way down. This likely means it will be choppy in here on the open, kind of like we saw in the overnight "whippy" market.
I think the market is trying to make its way back to 4100, but lower is definitely in the cards. I'm going with a neutral day today as I think it will be much like the overnight session.
P.S. Sorry for my son coughing the entire video in the background.
Morning Ideas June 21, 2022Good morning traders,
Yesterday turned out as expected, it was a back and forth type day, the closed right on the VWAP. This indicates the market in balance, and the bigger time frame players absent.
Overnight, the market has bounced a bit, after testing both sides of yesterdays balance. In the near term, it looks like the value is migrating higher. However, big picture, the sellers are still in control here.
I'm playing for a continuation higher to be eventually sold, but I think we will go higher first today, maybe even the entire day.
Morning Ideas June 16, 2022Good morning traders,
We were on the money with the 75 basis point hike yesterday, and I think ultimately that will put pressure on the markets.
As I stated in the video, that does NOT mean the market has to go down at all right now, or ever. The market is going to do what it's going to do and some of this was already "priced in."
I'm still leaning short, though I'd rather get short on a rally.
Morning Ideas June 14, 2022Good morning traders,
Eventhough we are balancing down here, I still think there is pressure on this market. I believe 3700 is the key level below us, but you can throw that out the window if we get a 75 basis point hike tomorrow by the FED.
I would expect us to continue to see "risk off" in front of the minutes and statement tomorrow at 2pm eastern.
Morning Ideas June 13, 2022Good morning traders...
Looks like a bit of panic selling, taking us down to levels we haven't seen in over a year.
Lots of news on Wednesday this week, where we will most definitely see a raise in rates, but Powell will need to be careful with what he says. Saying the wrong thing (as perceived by the market) will put even more pressure on a market in a downward spiral.
Not trying to paint a negative picture here, but I will be selling bounces early in the week. I think we will settle down in front of the news on Wednesday, but I think today will be lively.
Morning Ideas June 9, 2022Good morning traders,
Not surprisingly, we continue to beat on this area where we've been for the last 10 days.
I talk in the video on how I like to trade the breakouts of the area...Not by chasing, but by waiting for it to break and then pullback.
Again, I think it's an important one to watch if you're trading indices.
Morning Ideas June 8, 2022Good morning traders...
Today's morning ideas are all about noise areas and how to trade them.
If you're trading from this middle of this area, you are likely just rolling the dice. Be patient and wait for the market to get to the edges of this heavily traded zone.
Today is as "Neutral" as can be off the open, so please be careful with picking a direction early on.
As always, do your own research, just my .02.
Morning Ideas June 6, 2022Good morning traders...
After weakness on friday and a lot of volume traded on the lows, we've rebounded and trended higher in the overnight session.
I find that a bit odd if I'm looking through the short term lens. However, on the long term view, we are just trading in the heavily traded area dating all the way back to the end of April.
I would expect that to continue today.
Morning Ideas June 2, 2022Good morning traders,
The market filled in the area in the profile that we discussed yesterday the 4100-4090 area. Now the overall profile (big picture) is looking more and more bell shaped.
In a normal environment, I would bet that we'd be headed for 4250, to the top of the value. However, with the lack of liquidity and general uneasiness in the market, the market could trend at any time.
For today, I'm looking for the market to catch a bid, only to be sold tomorrow/next week.