Morning Ideas May 27, 2022Good morning traders,
We are trading near 4100 after the market traded higher yesterday, and liked the higher prices.
Big boulder today is that it's Memorial day weekend, and I would imagine that the fat cats on Wall St. will likely head out for the holiday weekend early. The expectation for days like these is that the volume dies out in the middle of the day and the market becomes very slow and non-directional.
I personally think (please make your own ideas) that the 4100 area will act as resistance above, and the market will "fall back in" to the middle distribution by the afternoon.
Takeprofittrader
Morning Ideas May 26, 2022Good morning traders,
The FED yesterday says they are staying committed to raising rates, but will remain flexible, whatever that means.
The only thing that really matters is how the market responds, and the market seemed to like their stance. The market rallied after the minutes were released, but pulled back slightly at the close.
We are higher now, and I think we are headed for 4010 VPOC area from before. From there, I think we get choppy and trade sidways into the holiday weekend.
Morning Ideas May 25, 2022Good morning traders,
Apologies for yesterday's morning ideas coming out without audio.
What I was expecting yesterday was more of a non-trendy day. The difficulty with this market is that it's difficult to look for a back and forth market setup when we whip around intraday. For example, yesterday at 1130 it looked like it was a trend down day, just to turn around and trend higher the rest of the day.
What we are left with today is a market continuing to build out volume in this lower distribution that I discuss in the video. I think you have to continue to give the edge to the sellers here, as the market continues to have trouble holding onto higher prices.
Morning Ideas May 19, 2022Good morning traders,
Yesterday did not go as planned. I would have expected the buyers to fight more at 3860 than they did.
It leaves us down near the lows and a market that is accepting prices lower. I will not get involved at these prices, as I think the market will try lower first if it's going to rally, and vice versa.
IMO you must give an edge to the sellers here, even if the market has already showed it's hand.
Morning ideas May 18, 2022Good morning traders,
Market closed on the highs yesterday, just to sell overnight. This brings us right back to the area at 4000, which I think will act as support today.
If you're a buyer, I dont' think you want to see this market below 3960, as I think that is the area where a bigger selloff is possible.
Im playing today as if it's a back and forth, day between 4100 and 4000
Morning Ideas May 17, 2022Good morning Traders,
Market came to one of my over/under lines, around 4080 overnight. We have quite a bit of strength in the overnight session, and I think that will ultimately take us higher off the open.
I do expect to see a bit of a fight from the sellers, but I think we go higher today as we try to push back towards 4300.
I do not think we are out of the woods here, by any means. In fact, I think on a longer term horizon, the direction is down.
Morning ideas May 13, 2022Good morning traders,
Yesterday played out pretty well, eventhough it looked like it was going to get ugly around 3pm eastern.
We rallied into the close and have continued that rally overnight.
With that said, I don't see any real reason to get excited about the longs here, yet. From here, I think it's more of a toss-up on immediate direction, but the longer term trend is definitely still down, IMO.
Morning Ideas May 12, 2022Good morning traders,
Continues to be more downside pressure, after another red hot CPI number yesterday scared investors.
I would expect the market to get tangled up here, but something tells me we are not done yet.
The question is, do we take a breather today, or do we continue the selloff at the opening bell. I'm leaning towards a more neutral day (probably choppy), but I don't expect to see another 3% selloff.
Morning Ideas May 9, 2022Good morning Traders,
Market continues to have trouble holding onto higher prices, and we are now threatening another leg down to 3966 area.
We are hanging out below the -2 standard deviation on the month, which is troubling for this market. We may get a temporary rally towards VWAP, but I would expect it to to continue lower and run into that 3966 area eventually.
Morning Ideas May 6, 2022Good morning traders,
Starting to build out a new "balance" below our previous one. This is good news for the sellers.
The good news for the buyers is we are at the lows of that "balance."
I think this will create a sort of tug of war down here around 4100 today, and I can see this market whipping both ways, and end up going nowhere.
Morning Ideas May 5, 2022Morning Traders,
FED 50 basis point rate hike sent the market higher, mainly (i think) because they said a 75 basis point rate hike was off the table.
Either way, we are back at 4300, which continues to be strong resistance above. I'd expect that to continue until we can get above 4300 and HOLD.
I will still lean short until then.
Morning Ideas May 4, 2022Good morning traders,
Big FOMC Statement looming today. I would expect a non-committal type of market today, until after the statement is released at 2pm eastern time. That usually means a sideways market, with a slight edge to risk off (down).
If the FED makes a Statement about 50 basis points rate hike, I think it would be better to not trade, as it will likely be very volatile and difficult to trade with manageable stops.
Morning Ideas May 3, 2022Morning Traders,
Not much has changed, I would still give the edge to the sellers, with an intermediate resistance of 4215, then the big one at 4280-4300.
To me, the path of least resistance continues to be lower, but FOMC tomorrow could change that depending on the rate hike.
Morning Ideas May 2, 2022Good morning traders,
We continue to build out volume in the area below our big balance area. THis is a good sign if you're a seller, and you're looking for more down.
Also, we don't have a whole lot of trading in this area, so continued selliing will likely take us towards 3960 area, which is a couple hundred points away.
I would like to see the market take back 4300 before I would be excited about any kind of longs.
Morning Ideas April 28, 2022Good morning traders,
Market continues to auction pretty well here. It seems like it wants to come back and test 4300 area again.
Watch today to see if we continue to build volume lower. Keep extending your profile out as the day progresses.
This will tell you if the market is accepting these lower prices. The more volume below the previous value area (the yellow area on the video), the more likely the market continues lower.
Morning Ideas April 22, 2022Morning Traders,
The move down yesterday is your normal chop in these wide balance areas.
I have said the same thing everyday this week and it comes down to this:
I don't think there is an edge in the market when we are stuck in the middle of balance. As soon as you get fascinated with a direction, the market turns around and goes the other way.
This is CHOP and makes trading very difficult. Better to wait for the market to get to the edges of these areas (pink boxes) and trade from there. Atleast at that point you can manage your risk, as you are closer to where you are wrong.
Morning Ideas April 21, 2022Morning Traders,
Much the same, and we are approaching the top of this "balance" area.
I would expect us to push higher into that 4525 area and then struggle, possibly falling back into the middle of the big balance. However, this will likely take several days/weeks.
If we break higher, 4600 is the next area to watch after 4525, IMO.