TAOUSDT Cup And Handle PatternTAOUSDT Technical analysis update
BINANCE:TAOUSDT has formed a cup and handle pattern on the daily chart. With high volume, the price has broken above the neckline resistance, signaling a potential strong bullish move in the coming days.
Buy zone : Below $720
Stop loss : $560
Take Profit 1: $855
Take Profit 2: $1100
Take Profit 3: $1500
TAO
Alikze »» Rose | Ascending corner pattern🔍 Technical analysis: Ascending corner pattern
- In the daily time frame, in an ascending channel, according to the predicted path, it has grown up to 1.618 fibo of the previous wave, a range of 0.17.
- In the last analysis presented in the 4H time frame in an ascending channel, after breaking the channel and exiting it and breaking the zone, it experienced a correction.
- In the daily time frame, it has had a complete upward cycle, and wave 3 has grown as much as 1.618 of the previous wave.
- At the moment, correction is done as much as 0.23 fibo of the whole structure.
- A corner pattern has been formed which can grow up to the supply area by breaking the 0.072 area.
🛑 The most important resistance: ~ 0.072
💎 NOTE: In addition, if the 0.23 area breaks and stabilizes below it, the bullish scenario will be invalidated.
»»»«««»»»«««»»»«««
Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future.
Thanks for your continued support.
Best Regards,❤️
Alikze.
»»»«««»»»«««»»»«««
BINANCE:ROSEUSDT
TAO/USDT: Potential 2x Move in the Making!🌟 Hey everyone! 👋
If you’re finding value in this analysis, don’t forget to smash that 👍 and follow for more high-value trade setups! 💹
🔍 Technical Overview:
TAO is looking incredibly strong! It’s breaking out of a cup and handle-like pattern on the daily time frame, and the current retest of the neckline makes it a prime opportunity for entry. This setup suggests a high probability of a 2x move, making it a must-watch! 📈
💡 Entry Strategy:
Entry Range: CMP (Current Market Price) and add more up to $600.
Targets: $900 / $1,200 / $1,600 / $2,000
Stop-Loss: $540 (Set tight for risk management).
Leverage: Spot or low leverage (Max 3x for risk control).
📖 Fundamentals of TAO Token:
TAO is the native token of the Lamina1 blockchain, a project co-founded by Neal Stephenson, the creator of the term "Metaverse." Lamina1 is purpose-built to power the Open Metaverse economy, providing developers and creators with the tools to build decentralized, immersive experiences.
Key Use Cases of TAO:
1️⃣ Powering the Lamina1 ecosystem.
2️⃣ Facilitating transactions and smart contracts within the Open Metaverse.
3️⃣ Incentivizing developers and creators on the blockchain.
💬 What’s your take on TAO’s setup? Are you spotting the same breakout potential, or do you have a different perspective? Drop your thoughts and analysis in the comments below, and let’s crush this trade together! 🚀🔥
#TAO/USDT Ready to go up#TAO
The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour frame and sticking to it well
We have a bounce from the lower limit of the descending channel, this support is at 638
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break, which supports the rise
We have a trend to stabilize above the moving average 100
Entry price 651
First target 661
Second target 673
Third target 686
Is TAOUSDT Ready to Skyrocket? The 250% Opportunity Awaits!The big picture is coming together for TAOUSDT, and it’s looking explosive! Let’s break down this visually stunning setup that could catapult this asset by an incredible 250%. Are you ready to ride this wave? Here’s why this could be a game-changing breakout:
1️⃣ The Perfect Rounded Bottom Formation
The chart paints a classic rounded bottom, a powerful bullish reversal pattern.
Key Support Zone : TAOUSDT built a solid foundation within the support area, tested multiple times for strength.
Steady Volume Accumulation: The increasing volume during the base formation hints at smart money quietly entering the market.
This setup signals that momentum is building, and the next leg up is in sight.
2️⃣ Breakout from the Bullish Flag
After the rounded bottom, the market formed a bullish flag, a textbook continuation pattern. This flag represents a brief consolidation phase, preparing for the next explosive move upward.
Volume Surge : Notice how volume spiked at the breakout point? That’s confirmation of buyer interest stepping in.
Momentum Reset : The consolidation allowed TAOUSDT to cool off, priming for a much bigger move ahead.
3️⃣ The Target: A Staggering 250% Move
The measured move projection for this breakout is 1,800$, representing a massive 250% gain from current levels. With the pattern's precision and volume confirmation, this target becomes a realistic possibility.
Here’s why this move could be the real deal:
✅ Rounded bottom = trend reversal signal.
✅ Bullish flag = continuation of momentum.
✅ Exceptional volume = confirmation of strength.
4️⃣ What Traders Should Watch For
💡 Key Support Zone: If the price retests the green support area around 470-500, it could offer a golden entry opportunity.
💡 Breakout Continuation: A clean break above the recent highs of around 640 will confirm that the momentum is intact.
💡 Volume Spike: Sustained volume will fuel this potential 250% rally.
Conclusion: A Bullish Wave is Loading! 🌊
The TAOUSDT chart is screaming opportunity, with a rounded bottom, a bullish flag, and exceptional volume setting the stage for a parabolic move. With a 250% target on the horizon, now is the time to stay sharp and capitalize on this explosive setup.
🚨 Don’t just watch the move – position yourself for it. TAOUSDT is ready to make history. Are you? 🚨
Bittensor (TAO)📊 General Overview of the Analysis
TAO coin, after being listed, initially moved downward within a descending channel. Upon breaking out above the channel, the price experienced an upward rally to its previous peak but then entered another descending channel.
🕰 Daily Timeframe Analysis
🔸 Current Status: After the upward movement, the price has entered a consolidation range (yellow zone).
🔸 Fake Move: The drop below this range suggests seller weakness.
🔸 Forecast: Breaking above the yellow zone could propel TAO to higher levels.
⏰ 4-Hour Timeframe Analysis
🔹 After rebounding from the top of the descending channel, the price responded positively to the midline and rose again.
🔹 Expected Movement: There’s potential for breaking out of the descending channel from the top.
🔹 Suggested Entry Point:
A confirmed price stabilization above the red zone can signal a secure entry.
🎯 Price Targets (Fibonacci Levels)
🔹 1.618
🔹 2.618
📈 RSI Indicator Analysis
🔸 On the daily timeframe, RSI is positioned in an ascending channel.
🔸 Forecast: A breakout above the midline of this ascending RSI channel could offer an early entry signal for TAO.
📝 Conclusion and Final Note
Technical analysis indicates that TAO has significant potential for further upward movement. Stabilization above the red zone and movement toward Fibonacci targets highlight the coin's appeal for long-term trades.
💡 Advice: Always employ risk management and incorporate your personal analysis into decision-making.
💡 Reminder: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.
Eyeing $TAO for the Next Big Move – AI is Next!Giving this one a separate trade. It looks prime for a push up.
BTC is still holding steady above 96k, and AI is lagging behind a bit, so it's time for a push!
Bids are set, and I’ve bought some. It’s sitting above the monthly open... so.
BINANCE:TAOUSDT
From BitTensor (TAO) to the Next Unicorns: The Evolution of AI
BitTensor (TAO) has set a high standard for the AI crypto market, proving itself as a true trailblazer. From its humble beginnings at $29, it soared to an incredible $683, showcasing not only its strength but also the immense potential of the AI crypto narrative.
As a pioneer and leader, TAO has paved the way for innovation in decentralized AI, attracting attention for its unique approach and early mover advantage. But as the sector matures and TAO’s $4 billion market cap limits its immediate growth potential, it might be time to consider what’s next for the AI crypto space.
Let’s explore why the shift to emerging AI projects could represent the next phase of growth and opportunity. 👇
TAO: A Leader That Opened the Doors
A Phenomenal Run: TAO’s meteoric rise was nothing short of legendary, with its all-time high of $683 reached months ahead of the broader market rally. It proved that AI crypto can stand out, even in unpredictable market conditions.
Technical Outlook: Current resistance levels lie at $528, $560, and $600, while support at $436 could be tested if market sentiment shifts.
Valuation Reality: With its $4 billion market cap, BitTensor has entered a phase of slower growth compared to smaller-cap projects still in their infancy.
Why the Spotlight Shifts to New AI Projects
💡 AI Crypto Is Just Getting Started: While TAO has led the way, the broader AI crypto sector remains untapped. This emerging sector has immense long-term potential, with utility-driven projects poised to thrive well beyond traditional market cycles.
💡 Opportunities in Innovation: The next leaders in AI crypto will combine real-world utility, scalability, and innovative technology. These projects will likely define the space as the market evolves.
💡 Timing Is Key: AI-focused cryptocurrencies haven’t experienced their full breakout yet, making this the perfect time to explore smaller, undervalued projects with the potential to lead the next rally.
My Strategy: From TAO to the Next Wave
While TAO has been a fantastic trade from $29 to $683, it’s time to shift focus to the next generation of AI cryptos. These emerging projects have the potential to offer:
1️⃣ Higher Growth Potential: Lower valuations leave more room for exponential returns.
2️⃣ Early Entry Advantage: Getting in on the ground floor before the sector explodes ensures the best opportunities.
3️⃣ Broader AI Utility: Projects addressing data processing, machine learning, and decentralized AI infrastructure are likely to lead the way.
The Future of AI Crypto
TAO’s success is just the beginning. As we enter a new era of AI-driven innovation, the opportunity to find the next big thing in AI crypto is right in front of us. My eyes are already on several projects that I believe could dominate the space in the coming years.
Stay tuned as I share insights into what’s next and how to position yourself to ride the wave of the AI crypto revolution. 🚀
📊 What’s your take on the future of AI crypto? Let me know in the comments!
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Alikze »» TAO | Scenario 3 or C bullish - 1D🔍 Technical analysis: Scenario 3 or C bullish - 1D
- In the analysis presented in the previous post on the daily time frame, it was noted that the BINANCE:TAOUSDT AI in the supply zone can have two movement paths.
- Considering that the movement cycle in the supply zone ended and had a correction to the green box area.
- Considering the correction in the green box area and the creation of demand in the range, therefore, the previous movement cycle can be considered as wave 1 and the correction in the green box area as wave 2.
💎So with the recent zigzag correction, the BINANCE:TAOUSDT currency can have a movement cycle in the form of wave 3 or C of the bullish super cycle.
💎Considering the behavior and structure of the movement, it is in wave 3 or C of the bullish.
⚠️ In addition, if the price touches the Invalidation LVL area, the bullish scenario is invalidated, the chart should be reviewed and updated again.⚠️
»»»«««»»»«««»»»«««
Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future.
Thanks for your continued support.
Best Regards,❤️
Alikze.
»»»«««»»»«««»»»«««
TAO to $1000+ soon!!!The chart for TAO appears to be forming an inverted Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, which is widely recognized as a bullish reversal signal in technical analysis.
This pattern often indicates a potential shift in market sentiment, suggesting that the asset may be preparing for an upward breakout.
TAO Takeoff: The Path to EnlightenmentNot a bad project that I would consider in the medium term to buy at current values and fixing at 1.618 Fibonacci level. The project has recently announced partnerships with several major blockchain initiatives, which increases its potential and credibility. Also, the introduction of new technologies and platform improvements could have a positive impact on the price.
Horban Brothers!
TAO Long Spot Trade (Reclaiming Resistance)Market Context:
TAO is showing strength by reclaiming key resistance levels as support and attempting to form a higher low. The setup suggests potential for further upside if price consolidates above $450 and reclaims the daily 21 EMA. A break above $600 could lead to price discovery.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Between $450 and $490
Take Profit Targets:
First target: $590
Second target: $760
Third target: $960
Stop Loss: Daily close below $400
This setup aligns with a strong risk-to-reward ratio, leveraging the potential for continuation beyond $600. #TAO
TAO bullish to the upside!!TAO has formed a bearish divergence, suggesting the potential for a retracement to key Fibonacci levels at 0.382 , 0.5 , and 0.618 .
Following this corrective phase, the setup indicates a high likelihood of strong upward momentum, aligning with bullish continuation expectations.
$TAOUSDT Pumping with Volume!! New All-Time High in Sight!BINANCE:TAOUSDT is showing strong bullish momentum, with a recent pump backed by good volume, suggesting potential for a big move ahead. After a healthy correction, GETTEX:TAO has resumed its upward trend, aiming for new all-time highs in the near future. With momentum picking up, this setup could present a solid opportunity, but it’s crucial to manage risk carefully. Always set a stop loss to protect gains and limit downside exposure in case of a reversal. Let’s see how far GETTEX:TAO can go!
Currently trading at $540
Buy level: Above $520
Stop loss: Below $435
TP1: $650
TP2: $800
TP3: $1000
TP4: $1250
Max Leverage 3x
Always keep Stop loss
Follow Our Tradingview Account for More Technical Analysis Updates, | Like, Share and Comment Your thoughts
Alikze »» TAO | Ascending corner pattern - 1D🔍 Technical analysis: Ascending corner pattern - 1D
- In the analysis presented in the previous post , in the 4H time frame according to the direction of movement, after the short-term ascending channel was broken, a correction was encountered, which continued until the correction range of $217.
- Demand was met in the range of $217, which has continued its growth by forming a return pattern up to the range of $690.
- Currently in the supply zone, it has formed a bullish angle pattern.
- Therefore, I expect that after breaking from the bottom in the range of $500, it will face demand again and complete the 5-wave cycle up to the ceiling of the channel.
💎 Alternative scenario:
In addition, if the pattern breaks and there is no support in the range of $500, the correction can extend to the green box.
»»»«««»»»«««»»»«««
Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future.
Thanks for your continued support.
Best Regards,❤️
Alikze.
»»»«««»»»«««»»»«««
BINANCE:TAOUSDT
10/28 Confirmed yearly bull flag. Overview :
The AMEX:SPY closed the week lower, breaking a six-week winning streak that had started just before the first rate cut. NASDAQ:QQQ managed to stay green, hovering near an all-time high. Last week, the Fed reported 738,000 new home sales and 3.84 million existing home sales. Notably, while existing home sales are declining in a descending triangle pattern, new home sales have been forming an ascending triangle—signaling diverging trends in housing demand.
The job market showed resilience, with jobless claims lower than the last two readings, indicating improvement. However, this job strength could complicate rate cuts since the Fed targets stable inflation around 2%. This week brings major data releases: Tuesday’s job openings, Wednesday’s Q3 GDP, and Thursday’s and Friday’s PCE, Core PCE, and the U.S. unemployment rate. Expect a quieter start to the week but brace for potential volatility in the latter half.
According to the CME tool, the likelihood of no rate cut has dipped to 1.1%. This rate cut probability has fluctuated widely over the past two weeks, from 13% to 1%, making it crucial to understand how the CME calculates this metric:
1.Market Data: Fed Funds futures prices reflect market expectations for Fed rate changes.
2.Probability Calculation: The tool derives implied rate change probabilities from the difference between current rates and futures prices.
3.Assigning Probabilities: Each possible outcome—rate cut, hike, or no change—is assigned a probability based on the futures data.
CME Group holds a key position in financial markets, having formed from the merger of major exchanges: the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), and Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX). This vast network underscores why CME’s Fed tool is a pivotal reference for understanding rate expectations.
In the crypto world, ETFs, especially those from BlackRock, have been on a BTC buying spree, significantly outpacing their usual purchase amounts four out of five trading days last week—continuing a pattern that began on October 14. Since then, BTC has climbed from the key level of $62.8k to around $69k, although other institutional players remain less active. This is reminiscent of BlackRock’s February buying spree, which saw BTC rise from $52 k to $61k in just two weeks, with BlackRock averaging $600 million in BTC purchases daily. We’re watching this as a potential signal, though no one’s showing similar interest in ETH ETFs, not even BlackRock, who seems to have stopped DCAing into it.
BTC TA :
W : The week ended with a small red candle, a relatively calm finish considering BTC is nearing $70k. Could this set us up for a breakout ahead of election results and potential rate cuts?
D : Volatility hit hard last week, as anticipated. After a rally to $69k, Friday saw a dip, but big players defended the $66.5k level. Zooming out, BTC’s price rejected the upper bound of a year-long bullish flag, confirming the breakout on October 16 and reducing fake-out risks. However, there are currently no bullish divergences across MACD, RSI, CVD, or OBV.
4h : The recent triple divergence has been cleared, with no new divergences appearing.
1h : Overbought RSI and a shooting star at Monday's open signal a short-term correction, with support at $68.2k and $67.7k.
Alts Relative to BTC : ETH remains in a consolidation phase, still far from breaking all-time highs like BTC. SOL has been tracking BTC's moves more closely, while NEAR
is close to its yearly low of $3.8. Meanwhile, SUI, APT, and TAO saw 20%-30% corrections last week.
Bull Case : We’re breaking out of a year-long bull flag, potentially en route to $100k, with BlackRock leading the charge. Trump appears likely to win, the CME tool shows only a 1% chance of no rate cut, and gold is on the rise. Unless gold crashes, BTC might hold steady.
Bear Case : Is this just another bull trap set by market makers?
Fear and Greed Index : 54 – Neutral. We may see a shift to greed if BTC breaks above $73k.
10/23 5th time BTC rejected from 70k. Bullish? Overview:
The AMEX:SPY saw a healthy pullback of 0.9%, with a long wick touching levels last observed on September 26th. The index trended downward from the start of the trading session but rebounded sharply in the last two hours, doubling the volume seen earlier in the day. This surge formed a hammer candle—a bullish indicator, particularly when accompanied by increased volume.
Existing home sales in the U.S. dropped 1% from the previous month, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million in September 2024, marking the lowest level since October 2010. Today, new home sales and initial jobless claims are expected, with forecasts set at 245k, slightly above the previous reading of 241k. If the numbers come in lower than expected, it would suggest the economy is not cooling sufficiently, potentially extending inflation.
This decline could be attributed to a rise in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which jumped 14 basis points to 6.82%, the highest since July 26 and a 71-basis-point increase since the Fed’s last major rate cut.
The likelihood of a rate cut in November has now dropped to 7%, influenced heavily by the Fed's upcoming reports. Given the weakening housing data, a rate cut may still be necessary to support the economy.
The recent market correction has exposed different strategies among ETF managers. BlackRock continues to buy aggressively, maintaining its purchase levels even after a 5% correction, keeping its stance bullish. Fidelity has remained neutral, staying on the sidelines since the peak of the current bull wave. ARK Invest, however, bought heavily at the top but is now selling during the correction, realizing losses. In summary: BlackRock is bullish, Fidelity is neutral, and ARK is bearish.
BTC TA:
W: BTC is slowly forming this week's red candle, but bullish hopes persist.
D: A significant correction unfolded, as the triple divergence likely completed. The day's wick dipped below $65.8k, then bounced off the 0.618 Fibonacci level, calculated from the bullish pump that began on Monday, October 14th. Despite the pullback, BTC showed higher volume and managed to recover. The final daily candle formed a bullish hammer, although the volume wasn't notably higher than the last two bearish days. As previously mentioned, as long as $62.7k holds, the bullish outlook remains intact.
Drawing trendlines for BTC this year shows the current upper boundary is slightly sloped downward—forming the top of what appears to be a bullish flag. It follows a large rally, with a slight pullback and consolidation, setting up for another potential breakout. Last Friday, on the 18th, the trendline was broken, suggesting a bullish confirmation if retested. However, yesterday’s price action pushed BTC below this trendline. Of course, the trendline could be adjusted to fit the bullish narrative, but the key level to watch is $66.5k.
4h: A sharp drop occurred yesterday, but most of it was recovered in the latter half of the day. This dip seems correlated with the S&P 500’s drop. BTC lost the local point of control at $66.8k but regained it. If bearish momentum continues this week without positive news, and if BTC falls below $65.8k, the next critical support is the yearly level of $62.7k. However, this would be the fourth or even fifth time this year that BTC has been rejected from $70k. If that happens again, will there be enough bullish momentum left to hold $62.7k? The candle that bounced off the 0.618 Fibonacci level formed a green hammer with above-average volume—a bullish sign.
1h: The hourly chart shows a V-shaped recovery, an uncommon pattern in market behavior. Beyond that, no additional insights.
Alts Relative to BTC: Interestingly, SOL has been rising while the rest of the market declines. Some attribute this to renewed interest in memecoins. However, popular Solana-based memecoins like WIF, BONK, and MEW are down, with only Popcat showing gains.
Bull Case: BTC faces rejection at $70k, followed by a deep pullback, and the Fed decides not to cut rates in November.
Bear Case: The Fed cuts rates, and BTC rallies.
Fear and Greed Index: The index is at 52, continuing its downward trend this week.
Opportunities : Check BINANCE:APTUSDT for a possible short opportunity. If SUI and TAO already corrected after their big pump, APT still wobbles at the top and recently posted bearish shooting star daily candle with high volume.
10/22 Triple divergence is playing out. How deep?Overview:
The AMEX:SPY closed down by only 0.16%, despite opening lower than Friday’s close. During the second trading hour, the index dropped 0.5% but managed to recover the losses throughout the day. Only a few AMEX:SPY stocks ended in the green, with Nvidia gaining 4.14%. Despite this minor pullback, the index has seen six consecutive weeks of growth, and one red weekly candle wouldn't derail a bull run that has gained 23% since the start of the year.
The tech-heavy NASDAQ:QQQ also closed in the green, up 0.19%, thanks to Nvidia’s boost.
The U.S. Leading Indicator Index (LEI) fell by 0.5% month-over-month to 99 in September, a steeper decline than the expected -0.3% and more significant than the -0.2% drop in August, according to The Conference Board’s report on Monday. From March through September 2024, the LEI dropped 2.6%, exceeding the 2.2% decline in the previous six-month period.
"Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board. "Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers' outlook for future business conditions was tepid."
This index has been decreasing since March 2022, and Monday’s reading officially places it below its lowest point during the COVID-19 period in April 2020. However, the rate of decline appears to be slowing.
Meanwhile, companies are still reporting better-than-expected earnings. Some well-known names reporting today include GE Aerospace (Boeing's engine supplier), Philip Morris, Verizon, General Motors, 3M, Enphase, and Invesco (owners of the QQQ ETF).
The CME Watch Tool now shows an 11.1% chance of no rate cut on November 7th, up from last week’s 9.3%.
While BTC dropped 2.40% on Monday, BlackRock still bought $329 million worth of BTC ETFs. It’s almost amusing to think that BlackRock could be acting as someone’s exit liquidity. The firm now owns 362,192 bitcoins, valued at $23.169 billion.
BTC TA:
W: Unfortunately for the bulls, BTC closed last week at $69k, which is below the highs of the last two bullish waves in late March and early June.
D: Monday ended with a 2.40% correction—much needed after last week's strong rally. A timely release of pressure increases the likelihood of the bull run continuing. An important level to maintain is $66.9k, as it’s the point of control for this recent rally starting from October 10th. The next support levels are $65.8k and the key yearly support at $62.7k. Breaking below $62.7k would invalidate the current bullish wave. On the bearish side, Monday’s candle engulfed the previous five trading days (including the weekend). Before the pullback, the RSI hit 70.
4h: As we spotted and wrote about in our previous letter - the 4-hour chart showed MACD, CVD, and RSI divergences, with three consecutive declining peaks as the price continued climbing. The correction began on Sunday evening, and it may take more than a day to fully play out. The key level to hold now is $66.8k—if it breaks, the price may fall to the daily level of $65.8k. So far, it’s holding.
1h: The 1-hour chart looks bullish, as the $66.9k level is holding, with some bullish MACD and RSI divergence showing.
Alts Relative to BTC: ETH, SOL, and NEAR have not declined as much as BTC. However, SUI has dropped more significantly by 5%, and TAO by 9%. APT is unexpectedly pumping, while DOGE is up by 27.30%. Seems like alts are diverging from BTC correction. At least the aren't collapsing 7 - 10%, which was the case in the past with BTC falling by 2.4%.
Bull Case: BTC could be correcting slightly before resuming the bull run. If a recession is avoided, Trump wins the election, and rates are cut, the outlook remains positive.
Bear Case: BTC may have reached an old resistance level without breaking it, confirming it as a solid resistance, and initiating a deeper correction.
Fear and Greed Index: The index is back to Neutral at 57, down from the Greed territory of 60 over the weekend.
10/17 Give us a healthy pull back. Overview:
The AMEX:SPY continues its upward trajectory, hitting new all-time highs. The bullish momentum is supported by more companies exceeding earnings expectations this week. Despite rising unemployment and persistent inflation, corporations are posting record profits. It’s a reminder that the stock market and the economy don’t always move in sync.
The NASDAQ:QQQ , representing big tech, is hovering near its all-time high but struggling to break through. The Federal Reserve reported fewer initial jobless claims at 241k, a decrease from last week, but still higher than the average over the last three years. The CME Watch Tool now indicates a 9.3% chance of no rate cut in the next meeting on November 7th, influenced by these labor market figures.
Meanwhile, a surge in BTC ETF purchases has been observed throughout the week. Yesterday, BlackRock acquired $309 million worth, nearly tripling its average of $117.4 million. This marks their fourth consecutive day of buying. Even Grayscale joined the action. Altogether, $1.854 billion flowed into BTC ETFs this week. This could either mark the peak of the sixth bullish wave or set up a breakout from the year-long bullish flag pattern. BTC saw an 8% rise this week, making it one of the top five best-performing weeks of the year, including February's pump following BTC ETF approval. However, the volume remains lower than expected. For a full trend confirmation, we need institutional whales to join in. If we are indeed breaking out of the bullish flag, the volume should match levels seen at the beginning of the bull run in October and November 2023, when weekly volumes were 80-100% higher than this week.
BTC Technical Analysis:
W: On the weekly chart, BINANCE:BTCUSDT candle wick has reached July's open and close but hasn't tested its highs around $70k. A close above $68.2k this week would be a bullish signal. We still have Friday, but the weekend isn’t likely to bring much action.
D: BTC has been at the upper Bollinger Band for four consecutive days without any correction or pullback. The candles are reminiscent of the week of September 3rd, which saw an 8.5% pump, followed by a fake breakout and an additional 4.54% rise before a sharp decline wiped out all gains within ten days. A healthy pullback could target the $64-68k range—but of course, the bullish sentiment says, "No pullbacks on the way to the moon!"
4h: The current pump started at the key 2024 level of $62.7k, rising in three waves. The third push had lower volume, signaling a price-volume divergence. RSI has exceeded 70 twice and is now trending down, showing divergence with the price. On-Balance Volume (OBV) and Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) also indicate divergence. Without a clear shooting star candle with high volume, nothing is confirmed yet. We might see some sideways action over the weekend before a possible breakout on Sunday evening.
1h: Bearish.
Alts Relative to BTC: ETH, SOL, and NEAR are showing weakness. None have reached their July peaks like BTC, and they have all pulled back after this week’s pump. Quick question: Does MKR have a bottom?
Bull Case: If we continue breaking out of the bull flag, the pump could extend into next week, with potential gains of another 6-8%. If Trump wins and crypto rallies, rates could be cut in November and December, bringing them down to 4.25-4.50%.
Bear Case: We could continue oscillating within the $58-70k range, and we are currently at the upper end.
Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 58, still Neutral, but it touched the Greed level of 60 yesterday.