U.S. Treasuries have gone through a period of historic turmoil as the Federal Reserve starts shrinking its balance sheet. Today’s weekly chart considers just how dramatic the moves have been using the 10-year note’s yield index (TNX). The first thing that stands out is the accelerating rate of change since about March 2021. This chart shows ROC with a nine-week...
Soaring inflation and bond yields have hammered sentiment all year. But now there could be signs of yields peaking. A few patterns appear on this chart of the 10-year Treasury yield. First is the October 2018 high of 3.248 percent. TNX jumped above that level for six sessions before rolling over. It tried it again on June 28, but failed. That lower high may...
The greenback has been running for over a year, and it could remain in focus with Jerome Powell testifying on Capitol Hill today. The main pattern on today’s chart of the U.S. Dollar Index is the 103.82 level. That’s where DXY peaked in January 2017, essentially marking the top for the entire post-2002 period. Prices first challenged that resistance six weeks...
Homebuilders are among the worst-performing groups this year as interest rates increase. Now there could be a bearish continuation pattern in the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF . ITB sank to a 52-week low around $57 one month ago, followed by a period of consolidation. The lows have inched higher during this time, creating a potential bearish flag. Second,...
The S&P 500 has bounced from its January 24 low as investors focused on corporate earnings. But now it’s staggering as attention shifts back toward the Federal Reserve and inflation. First, consider the potential hanging man candle on February 2. Like January, was the high made early in the month? Second, that potential reversal pattern occurred at both the...
ServiceNow is exactly the type of cloud-computing growth stock that benefited from the pandemic. Is it now rolling over as the crisis fades? Consider the dive under $500 in January. NOW rebounded on strong quarterly results and an upgrade from Piper Sandler last week. Yet, prices failed to reclaim $600. That level could be important because it’s near two lows in...
Material stocks have come under pressure as the Federal Reserve gets hawkish. Alcoa has held up better than many peers, but for how long? Notice the candles with long upper tails or solid bodies as the aluminum company chopped above $60. Those indicate selling pressure around that price. Looking further back, notice how that level matches a high from April 2018....
The S&P 500 made new highs above 4800 early this year, but now the move may be looking like a false breakout. Notice how the rally between December 21 and 27 happened against a backdrop of waning volume. This isn’t a surprise given the Christmas holiday. But then when volume did resume last week, it occurred as price dropped. Several potential reversal patterns...
Price action in the market has grown more cautious, especially toward technology stocks. The first big pattern occurred on Monday, when the SPDR Technology ETF jumped to a new all-time high above $175. But it was negative within an hour and closed the session under Friday’s low – a big bearish engulfing candle. Similar patterns appeared on November 22 and...
With its back up against a wall, the US Federal Reserve has pledged to begin tapering its asset purchase program. Beginning later this month, the Federal Reserve will reduce the number of US Treasury Securities it purchases each month by US $10 billion and the number of Mortgage-Backed Securities by US $5 billion. How did the USD react to the Federal Reserve...
The S&P 500 has climbed for seven straight months. But it may face some near-term challenges as September gets underway. The main pattern on today’s chart is the resistance line running along the highs since mid-April. Notice how prices have stalled once again at this area. Next, consider the type of candles at the top of the range: August 31 and September 1...
Man oh man what a past couple of days of life.. The bottom trend line for the channel has now become the resistance. Still trading within the purple resistance/support zone.. I don't expect it to veer too much out of this maybe finding strong support around 1.35-1.38 Looks like we are in a descending triangle and with what Elliot is saying it seems like this...
📌 Endgame in the economic cycle and illustrating a painful recession Yields had the opportunity to move and successfully played the 'elastic band' rejection from the inversion in 2019, which despite the length of the global CB combination, can be expressed in no other terms than reckless. FED was obviously aiming for the ideal position (the frontal defence from...