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Liberation Day: Fear or greed in the air? We are less than hour out from the Liberation Day tariff announcements. The U.S. is preparing to roll out reciprocal tariffs on all countries, with rates set at 10%, 15%, and 20%, according to Sky News. Investors hoping for certainty may be disappointed—this could mark the start of a longer phase of trade battles. Mexico, once again, is reading the room. President Sheinbaum has confirmed Mexico won’t respond with tit-for-tat tariffs. They understand that the way to deal with Trump is to treat him with kid gloves. Meanwhile, gold hit another record high, reaching $3,149.04 on Tuesday before pulling back a little. Buyers might have a better setup around the parallel pivot line to position for further upside.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Why the RBA should cut rates todayThe Reserve Bank of Australia should cut rates today, argues James Glynn in the Wall Street Journal . Markets, however, expect the central bank to wait until May for its next move. RBA Governor Michele Bullock remains cautious, citing lingering inflation. But Glynn contends that global uncertainty now outweighs the RBA’s desire to wait for marginal improvements in inflation data. That uncertainty is set to escalate this Wednesday, with the Trump administration announcing sweeping tariffs on U.S. trading partners—likely triggering retaliatory measures. Andrew Boak, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Australia, appears to support Glynn’s view: “There are costs to waiting until May to cut. Waiting is not always a virtue.” Is Glynn simply chasing a contrarian headline or is there actually a possibility the RBA could act today?
by BlackBull_Markets
Yearly Candle on NQ 2025I believe what we're seeing right now is simply the market printing the “open low” of the yearly candle. The recent dip seems driven by short-term fear surrounding the new tariffs, but in my view, this is just noise. Long-term, this sets up a bullish scenario. Businesses won’t adjust overnight—it takes time to shift operations away from high-tariff regions. But as that transition unfolds, we’ll likely see improved margins and stronger fundamentals emerge. From a technical standpoint, I’m watching for a key reversal after price revisits the order block. If we get that reaction, it could mark the beginning of a broader move higher. This looks like manipulation, not distribution. OLHC - Gavin NFA, DYOR
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by gavintradez
2 reasons the peso rally may not be over The USD/MXN has fallen over 2.5% in the past five trading sessions, dropping below 19.9 per USD for the first time since November 2024. Two key factors could be driving this move: 1. Investor distrust in the U.S. dollar – Market confidence is weakening due to Trump’s inconsistent tariff threats and other unpopular policies. In contrast, the Sheinbaum government’s kid-glove handling of Trump is securing favourable trade concessions. 2. Attractive interest rate differential – With Banxico’s benchmark rate at 9.5%, the peso remains appealing for carry trades. The Federal Reserve’s decision this week could widen this gap further. Last week’s subdued U.S. inflation data is helping to fuel speculation of earlier Fed rate cuts, which may continue to support the peso despite trade uncertainties.
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD: Trump’s trade war crosses the Atlantic You may be sick of hearing about tariffs, but they are currently the catalyst for a huge amount of volatility in the market and a huge amount of trading opportunities. And now Trump’s trade war has crossed the Atlantic Today, the European Union announced retaliatory tariffs on approximately €26 billion worth of U.S. goods in response to President Donald Trump's recent increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Targeted products include Harley-Davidsons, bourbon, and jeans—key American exports that have been caught in previous trade disputes. The EU has said it remains open to negotiation but has not ruled out further action. In response, Trump vowed to retaliate, stating, “Of course I’m going to respond.” The daily chart for the EUR/USD shows the pair could fall into a larger corrective decline, given overbought RSI conditions.
by BlackBull_Markets
International politics is now a high school dramaSo, Trump was all like, “Let’s slap an extra 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum,” which meant total duties shot up to 50%. Why? Because Ontario put a 25% tax on electricity exports to the U.S. And Doug Ford? He was not having it—saying he’d “respond appropriately” and “not back down.” But —he totally backed down and scrapped the tax on electricity exports to Michigan, New York, and Minnesota. And now, Trump just ditched the extra 25% tariff, and boom— USDCAD broke below the recent low of 1.43986
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/CAD holds up OK despite tariffsOK, so it's finally happened. On March 4, 2025, President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, with Canadian energy products facing a separate 10% tariff. Tariffs on Chinese imports were also doubled from 10% to 20%. In response, Canada imposed immediate 25% tariffs on CA$30 billion worth of U.S. goods, with plans to extend them to another CA$125 billion in the coming weeks. While USD/CAD maintained a steady upward movement, it is difficult to characterize the move as a broad-based selloff. Maybe this is more of a trade scuffle than a trade war right now? China announced additional tariffs of 10% to 15% on U.S. agricultural products, effective March 10. Mexico is set to announce its own retaliatory tariffs on March 9. Now, the focus shifts to Trump’s next move. He has already suggested he will reciprocate the reciprocation. Where does this end? Full blown trade war? Meanwhile, reports suggest he is considering easing sanctions on Russia.
by BlackBull_Markets
Market Update & Crypto OutlookMarket Update & Crypto Outlook Tariffs & Economic Impact Trump is leveraging tariffs as a negotiation tactic to pressure adversaries into deals. While Europe is reluctant to concede outright, they have little choice. These tariffs are shaking the markets, and we all know how sensitive elites are about their portfolios. By hitting them where it hurts—their wallets—Trump is forcing them to the table. In my opinion, this strategy will work. Over time, Europe, Ukraine, and even China will likely agree to compromises. As these agreements unfold, market uncertainty (FUD) will ease, restoring investor confidence. Inflation & Market Sentiment Markets are pricing in expected quantitative tightening , meaning no interest rate cuts for at least two years. However, I don’t believe tariffs will fuel inflation as much as feared. Reduced government spending and a stronger USD could offset price increases, maintaining purchasing power without printing money. Until markets realize this, we’ll see uncertainty, but inflation numbers may not be as catastrophic as expected , helping stabilize sentiment. Crypto & Market Cycle The bull market isn’t over, but Bitcoin finally experienced real consolidation —without heavy ETF purchases propping it up. The ETF FOMO is over , and that’s actually a good thing. Now, Bitcoin can continue its rally naturally , setting up for its final, most parabolic leg. Altcoins & The Spark for Altseason As I mentioned before, a strong dollar combined with the upcoming $5,000 stimulus checks will ignite true altseason . This influx of cash will likely fuel a major altcoin rally later this year , after the new administration distributes the payments. Conclusion Yes, it’s been painful—altcoins are bleeding, portfolios are down, and sentiment is low. But capitulation marks the bottom . Expect a bumpy March , but April and especially May* could be parabolic , making today’s struggles a distant memory. 🚀 (Everything is on the chart, check the arrows)
by CryptoNikkoid
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Now it’s an EU trade war Trump wantsDonald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on the European Union, bizarrely stating that the 27-member bloc was “formed to screw the United States.” Without providing further details, he hinted at targeting carmakers, saying, “We have made a decision and we’ll be announcing it very soon.” The EU has vowed to retaliate immediately if the tariffs take effect. EUR/USD tested resistance around 1.0536 before sellers stepped in around the time of Trump's announcement. The pair remains under pressure, trading below the 50-day EMA, while the 200-day EMA is flattening, offering a potential target besides the 38 and 50% Fibonacci levels on the chart.
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD 10 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday Analysis - Tariffs!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 10 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment My Weekly Analysis HERE still the same as Tariffs is the main theme but market reaction is the key. Is the market got used to the Tariffs news so reactions will be soft and fade or we are going to see more fear in the market with Tariff War ? 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios: Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs are staying Bearish. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Price reached the Weak Swing High (4H CHoCH) sweeping the liquidity and turning INT structure to bearish with iBOS. 🔹INT Structure continuing Bearish following the 4H Continuation. 🔹With today open, market created a new Bearish iBOS due to Tariffs announcements. 🔹Current INT High is the 4H CHoCH which could be taken out as liquidity for continuation down. 🔹Price currently reached the Supply zone that caused the Bearish iBOS and we could see continuation down targeting the Weak INT Low. 🔹For me, I’d prefer to short from the 4H Supply after sweeping the 15m INT High (4H CHoCH). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is for price to continue Bearish targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low.
by Amr-Sadek
03/02/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $106,485.24 Last weeks low: $100,995.99 Midpoint: $95,506.74 As the US begins a tariff trade war on the world, BTC ends the previous week with a weekend selloff back into the range low of $91,000. Despite the crypto world being everchanging this range low level has held strong for nearly 3 months now. Because of this strong support level we have seen many weekly outlooks follow the pattern of an early break below weekly low, then reclaim and rally back up the range throughout the week. Could this be the case once again? Currently sentiment is terrible, probably bear market levels of depression despite Bitcoin being above $100K most of the time. I think this is largely due to the state of altcoins as they are at pre-US election lows, in some cases bear market levels... This plays havoc mentally which so much was promised in terms of alt season potential now that Bitcoin is a new highs. In reality the market will do what hurts the most, max pain. Having said that, generally a weekend dump can be misleading due to low volume and the absence of institutional buying making any manipulated move much easier to pull off from a market makers point of view. There are some nice 4H TF setups emerging, now the macro environment is definitely calling the shots in the Tradfi world but as long as the $91,000 holds the rangebound move is still in play.
by ProR35
$SPY: Fed induced rally hiccupsThe 6 week rally from the low on Mar 23 appears to be digesting the gains or struggling for direction, as you see fit. $SPY ended lower for the week, down -2.65% on Friday on a very low volume day as most of the exchanges worldwide were closed for Labor day holiday. The critical 61.8% retrace and gap resistance is acting as a wall at present. The US markets started May poorly, especially the small caps (IWM), which was trounced for -3.97%. FED induced rally appears to be running out of steam. $SPY has lost the 20 EMA. Price and momentum are diverging. Cycles are pointing to a low around 3rd week of May. Story stocks like $AMZM, $ZM, $TDOC, strong sectors like semiconductors (SMH) -4.71% are likely trading heavy due to anticipated 2nd round of tarriff war with China. These geo political tensions, alongwith economic devatation from Covid-19, does not bode well for the markets for the near future. Technically the markets are showing weakness, though a supportive tweet or further FED stimulus can again rip the markets higher.
AMEX:SPYShort
by insyyte
When Trump Made America Great Again - SPXSP:SPX TVC:SHCOMP AMEX:VEU TVC:SX5E AMEX:VEU 1, Vertical lines: Thin Orange is Trump wins election. Thick Orange is start of Trump presidency 2. Chart Lines: White is USA stock market, S&P500 Blue is the European “Dow Jones”, Euro Stoxx 50 Orange is the market cap weighted index of the entire planet’s stock markets (the 44 countries with capital markets), except the S&P 500. “All World minus USA” ETF. Red is China stock market. Summary: Between January 29th and May 24th, 2018, The U.S. went from lagging the World’s stock market to clearly leading the Earth’s stock. I propose this is a direct result of the announcement and implementation of Tariffs. 1st with $50B of tariffs on China on March 22nd, 2018. - I had initially thought this was due to Brexit (Britain exiting the European Union), However, the Brexit vote happened in June 2017, and actually seems to have boosted their markets. - For symmetry, and to compare apples 2 apples, this chart is in log percentage format.
AMEX:SPYLong
by jgeno
Acuity Brands: Business Uncertainties from Tariffs and WagesAcuity Brands: The Business Uncertainties from Tariff and Wage Inflation I last mentioned Acuity Brands (AYI), a lighting and building management solutions company with $3.7B in net sales in 2018, three months ago. At that time, I described a good risk/reward setup to go long the stock post-earnings. AYI shot nearly straight up from there. The stock broke through resistance at its 200-day moving average (DMA) and gained as much as 34.7% before peaking intraday in September. While I only participated in a portion of that run-up, I am glad I did not overstay my welcome. Fast forward to last week: AYI suffered a massive post-earnings gap down. The stock lost 16.3% and sliced right through 200DMA support after the 50DMA gap down. Sellers closed the week confirming the bearish breakdown. AYI has now almost erased its entire incremental gain from July earnings. {Chart: Acuity Brands (AYI) looks set to reverse all its previous post-earnings gains after a disastrous earnings report that sent the stock crashing through its 50 and 200DMAs} This moment is critical for the stock. AYI hit an all-time high in August, 2016 and sold off pretty steadily from there (on a monthly basis) until reaching a 4-year low in May, 2018. If AYI completes a full reversal of its gains from July earnings, then the stock greatly increases its risk of resuming the downtrend from the all-time high. AYI’s earnings report was interesting for a lot more than the technical disaster. The company also delivered some telling remarks about today’s inflationary environment. The company begain its conference call by launching right into the bad news. From the Seeking Alpha transcript: “While our results for the fourth quarter and the full year were records, we had higher expectations coming into 2018. Market conditions for growth were far more subdued than most had originally anticipated, especially for larger commercial projects and deflationary pricing persisted throughout the year, while cost pressures were far more significant than most had forecast, particularly in the fourth quarter.” The general market environment hindered the business: “Based on the information from various data collection and forecasting organizations, we believe the overall growth rate for the fourth quarter as measured in dollars for lighting in North America was flat to slightly down, continuing the sluggish trend over the last several quarters… We believe the lighting industry will continue to lag the overall growth rate of the construction market, primarily due to continued product substitution to lower priced alternatives for certain products sold through certain channels.” For the fourth quarter and full-year, the company sported record revenues and diluted earnings but significantly lower operating profit and margin. The cost pressures came from multiple inflationary fronts including tariffs and wages. Emphasis mine… “Another significant factor impacting our adjusted gross profit and margin was higher input cost for certain items, including electronic and certain oil-based components, freight and certain commodity-related items, particularly for steel. Many of these items experienced dramatic increases in price in the fourth quarter due to several economic factors including enacted tariffs and wage inflation due to the tight labor markets. We estimate the inflationary impact of these items reduced our adjusted gross profit in the quarter by more than $20 million, lowering our adjusted gross profit margin by 200 basis points and reduced adjusted earnings per share this quarter by $0.38… …we expect employee-related costs will continue to rise as we enter fiscal 2019 as markets for certain skills remain tight contributing to a rise in wage inflation…” AYI also explained that it sources from China about 15% of its components and finished goods which are subject to the new import tariffs. Freight costs are an increasing burden. The combination of rising oil prices and the rising wages that come from a severe shortage of truck drivers are driving freight rates skyward. Shipping a lower-value product mix is exacerbating the shipping burdens. As we would expect, AYI is scrambling to mitigate these costs by finding alternative suppliers and production sources, improving productivity, and increasing prices. The company announced price hikes last month and new price increases go into effect on October 15th. Assuming the new 25% bump in tariffs on Chinese imports goes into effect on January 1, 2019, AYI will raise prices yet again. IF AYI makes these price hikes stick without losing much demand, then the stock could represent a great buying opportunity. Better margin numbers should start appearing by the second fiscal quarter 2019. AYI cautioned that a lot uncertainty surrounds the potential impact of the cost pressures. For example, the inflationary pressures from tariffs caught the general industry by surprise as participants have experienced a deflationary environment for a “handful of years.” The demand impacts are hard to assess: “It is not possible for us to precisely determine what the potential impact tariffs will have on demand as it is a very complex situation impacted by numerous factors including currency fluctuations and political outcomes.” As the inflationary adjustments unfold, I will watch the technicals for signs of renewed buying interest. The company itself is one source of buying. AYI repurchased 2M shares at a cost of $298.4M in its fiscal year 2018. AYI still has 5.2M shares left under its repurchase authorization. I have to assume the company will aggressively buy shares in the coming months given the current stock price of $130.99/share is well below the average cost basis of $149.20/share of the to-date repurchased shares. Finally, it is possible tariffs could HELP AYI although the company did not specifically say so. In the conference call AYI pointed out that the Chinese government is subsidizing lighting companies who are undercutting price for lower-value fixtures. This competitive pressure is important because, as noted earlier, some of AYI’s customers are downshifting to these lower-valued products. AYI is determined to compete – “We will not yield this space for many strategic reasons” – and this competition represents one more important risk factor for the business. Overall, AYI is one more cautionary tale about the unanticipated impacts of today’s new inflationary environment. Given that financial markets are generally ignoring most potential fallouts from the expanding trade war between the U.S. and China, this earnings season should deliver many more surprises like AYI’s. Be careful out there! Full disclosure: no positions For more, see One-Twenty Two by Dr. Duru
NYSE:AYI
by drduru