Get started

Tariffs

To: Mr. Trump / Why do not you shut up? TVC:NDX DJ:DJI SP:SPX ES1! YM1! NQ1! This 1 hour chart show us that had already exceeded the 50 and 100 EMA, about to reach the dreaded 200SMA, BUT he has decided to tweet again, which puts a brake on all long positions and we enter the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a great dance of ups and downs turning a battle of #Bearish vs. #Bullish in the intraday, that the only thing that will bring is blood in the investors and North American companies. Great job #MAGA It seems that the No. 1 enemy of the North American economy is his own president, who does not understand much about it, he wants to affect companies like Amazon with his tweets or affect anyone who does not consider his friend. That is not the way to maintain stability in the stock markets, much less in the economy, it seems that it likes to generate panic and after living moments of stress in the S&P SP:SPX pressing the 200 DMA, but it seems that he wants to play with fire intentionally. Imposing tariffs and believing that economic wars can be won "easy" with enemies like China, destruction, uncertainty, fear and volatility is the only thing that is bringing every time, Mr. Trump expresses his opinion, what in the next months the historical supports will stop working and then we will have the great feared CRASH. www.bloomberg.com
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by UnknownUnicorn1464680
SHORT NZD/CAD NAFTA MS TRADECAD should outperform NZD over the coming weeks. Constructive NAFTA news suggests that the US may be getting closer to an acceptable agreement with its trading partners, which should lead to a continued re-pricing of the trade risk premium. Risks to a more dovish RBNZ continue, with the new Policy Targets Agreement likely to add a second employment mandate and potentially offer specific language on the currency. Data in NZ also remain uncompelling, including the business PMI and GDP. Positioning also favors the trade, with the market remaining long NZD while CAD sentiment is net bearish. A risk to the trade is a dovish shift from the BoC, leading to CAD weakness. - Morgan Stanley
Short
by itzbert
AUSSIE STEEL TARIFFS & TRADE PROTECTIONISM AIMED AT CHINAWe recommend selling AUDCAD targeting 0.9914 (50-day moving average), with stop loss 1.0150 (above recent highs) for a total reward-to-risk ratio of 2:1. As discussed in Asia Pacific: US tariffs: A minor setback for now, 2 March 2018, the steel tariffs reinforce our view of AUD underperformance on the basis of late-cycle domestic dynamics, and an expected moderation in Australia’s terms of trade . Any new announcement of wider tariffs on US imports from China will not bode well for the AUD, given the currency’s high sensitivity to China’s growth outlook. On the other hand, the loonie has already incorporated trade policy risk premium and a partial unwind, given Canada’s exemption to the steel and aluminum tariffs, could support CAD this week. This trade recommendation is valid from the Wellington open Monday to the New York close Friday. -Barclays FX Research
Short
by itzbert
1
CADUSD: Is this a bottom for the Canadian dollar?This level might be the bottom in this pair. Trump's tariff announcement might have created a negative enough sentiment to form a bottom here. From Zerohedge: "Canadians have had a tough time of it recently: they are getting inundated with illegal immigrants (thanks to Trudeau's welcome) and not benefitting from the wholesale emigration north that so many liberals promised if Trump was elected; housing has become unaffordable due to Chinese hot money flows encouraged by the government; the Canadian energy industry is hosed because of US shale production-driven low prices; and now the US imposes trade tariffs on another of their biggest exports." "The determination that Canada improperly subsidizes its exports is preliminary, and the Commerce Department will need to make a final decision. In addition, the U.S. International Trade Commission will need to find that the U.S. industry has suffered injury. But even a preliminary decision has immediate real-world consequences, by discouraging importers from buying lumber from Canada." www.zerohedge.com To me, as a contrarian, it sounds like a good opportunity, although the odds of the trade working are low, the payoff would be significant. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4