Gold Short coming in upcoming sessionGold going to touch 1534 that is confirm by US-China trade talk in early october, If trade talk stay positive it will go more down.
Tariffs
SPY Triple BottomPotential for a triple bottom on SPY. Depending on incoming news later tonight/tomorrow morning, I suspect a large move monday. Technicals would suggest that spy should be making a move upwards towards 293. If 293 rejects, then down we go again. If it breaks and retests as support, then we may make new highs. However, with the fear in the market, it is hard to say that's going to happen....except, "be greedy when others are fearful?"...
Currently in a long straddle.
Delayed tariffs "for Christmas" might help HASBRO
News/fundamental
The USTR says that the tariffs on some items, including “certain toys,” will be delayed until Dec. 15.
September is a key shipping month for those companies as they prepare for the holiday shopping season, when the majority of the industry’s business occurs.
Hasbro told CNBC earlier this month that it would have “no choice but to pass along the increased costs to our U.S. customers” if the tariffs were put into place.
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Great risk reward ratio.
TRADERSAI - A.I. Powered Model Trades for Today, MON 08/12Bears Getting Emboldened?
The apparently mis-managed, mid-judged, and mis-publicized trade war appears to begin to take its toll on the confidence of businesses and investors - not only on the confidence, but could very well be on their bottomlines. And, this could be emboldening the bears to slowly emerge from their hiding.
Nevertheless, if you are itching to go short this market you need to tread carefully - there is still scope for stoking (baseless) hope and exuberance in the markets around the trade war agreement/developments (mass memory is said to be very short and politicians know this very well) - so, account for "short squeeze" spikes up when going short. Keep enough powder dry and do not jump all in.
Our medium term models have not formed any near term directional bias, yet, and are in an indeterminate state, waiting for further analyses of today's (Monday's) daily close. In the mean time, read below for our models' trading plans for the day.
tradersai.com
#ES #ESMINI #SP500 #SPX #SPY #Fed #China #Yuan #Yields #Rates #Tariffs #Tradewar
BTCTrump hits Beijing with tariffs this coming September. The markets retaliate and consumers run to Bitcoin as a speculative store of value.
$EEM - Emerging Markets Under PressureAs volatility has come back to the global markets with a vengeance, one headwind that continues to blow even stronger continues to be the US-China trade war. On August 2nd, the US unexpectedly imposed additional tariffs on Chinese goods, with the Chinese now threatening to retaliate in kind. As a result of this renewed volatility, Emerging Market stocks ($EEM) have been rattled heavily over the past few trading sessions.
On a technical basis, $EEM prices are below all three of its EMAs, with a death crosses forming on i) the 10-Day and 50 & 200-Day EMAs, and ii) the 50-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA, something that has not been seen since May. Further, its RSI continues to fall, indicating that momentum is quickly increasing to the downside as global investors lose faith in Emerging Markets. Lastly, $EEM prices seem to to be in a downward trend since July 25th, with the EEM/SPY price ratio continuing its march lower, as global investors (continue to) invest in the US over Emerging Markets.
Given the increase in rhetoric between the two economic giants, Emerging Market stocks are currently under heavy bearish pressure, with no end in sight. If these pressures continue on the space, we see $EEM heading lower to $38.45 as its next stop.
$SPY - S&P 500 Bull Flag Forming?The S&P 500 was hit hard this week after macro headwinds such as the less than dovish Fed meeting, and more China tariffs, the $SPY has taken a beating over the last few trading days.
However, despite this short-term rough path, it appears that a "Bull Flag" ("Flag") seems to be forming at the moment. If prices can bounce off the bottom of the Flag at $288, move higher, and breach $302,the rally would continue. If it fails to do so, more selling could be right around the corner.
Investors should watch this space.
QQQ -Nasdaq Bull Flag forming?After a volatile week, $QQQ has been hit by some short-term selling pressure. This in turn, has made its technical patterns look quite bearish at the moment.
However contrary to this, it may appear that a "Bullish Flag" pattern may be forming. If the price can bounce of the bottom of the channel pattern ("Flag") at $186.31, move higher and breach the top of the Flag at $192.89, we could see prices move higher. If it fails to do so however, we could see more selling.
Watch this space over the next few trading sessions.
CAT Sensitive to Tariffs & Trade WarsHuge growth in 2016 as speculative anticipation of more sales to China & other developing industrialization nations occurred. Unsupported by Fundamental & Technical support and resistance levels. Now in a sideways pattern, inevitably selling down toward a Business Bear Cycle pattern. Weekly chart view.
GOLD-(XAU): Fundamentals and Technicals Support This Next RUN
Fundamental Analysis:
It was always made clear to me that Gold is the "Safe haven" where money is shifted to in times of uncertainty and fear. Gold is also commonly bought to be used as a hedge. Take the tariff war that is currently going on between World Leaders, the increased tariff rates seem to have no limit. In return, the inflation to the US Dollar will have many people with their sights on Gold. A few examples of recent gold bull trends during down markets would be in 2002-2007 when the dollar fell drastically (40% against the euro). Gold also ran 240% in 2008 when the bank treasuries credit giveaways were discovered where gold found itself surging to $1,895 in 2011.
Technical Analysis:
The Markets were hit hard last week and during this time we saw Gold make a strong move to the upside, breaking out of its 3 month falling wedge to finish the corrective Wave 2/5. As we begin our impulsive wave 3 up, my fib measurement on this completion is sitting around 1450, where I believe we will be rejected for a corrective wave. I would like keep a close eye on the volume to see if it will pick up, However I see clear skies concerning the Volume Profile (VPVR).
Trade-war relief - July 2019Trump and Xi Ping have come to a tariff truce at G-20 this weekend.
Trump is now using Huawei (previously blacklisted, banned, etc.) as a bargaining chip, allowing TEMPORARILY, U.S. companies to continue doing business with China's Huawei.
Here is a list of Top 20 U.S. based Huawei suppliers . I believe most of them will rally this month (July 2019).
- Percentage number next to stock symbol is the revenue exposure to Huawei
Intel (INTC) - 1%
Advanced Micro Device (AMD) - 2%
Broadcom (AVGO) - 6%
Qualcomm (QCOM) - 5%
Microsoft (MSFT)
Nvidia (NVDA)
CommScope (COMM) - 2%
Texas Instruments (TXN)
Seagate Technology (STX) - 4%
Micron Technology (MU) - 2%
Qorvo (QRVO) - 11%
Flex (FLEX) - 5%
Skyworks (SWKS) - 6%
Corning (GLW) - 2%
Analog Devices (ADI) - 3%
NeoPhotonics (NPTN) - 47%
Western Digital (WDC)
Lumentum (LITE) - 11%
II-VI (IIVI) - 8%
Finisar (FNSR) - 8%
Maxim Integrated (MXIM) - 4%
Keysight Technology (KEYS) - 2%
Marvell Technology (MRVL) - 1%
Note: Trump can go back on the Huawei deal at any time.
A correction to Trump's call with XiTrump's phone call with China's Xi pushed up the US stocks. The stocks' gains are likely to enter a daily correction phase as on S&P, we see a drop back to 2915. If that level is broken, check at 2910.
S&P 500 - potential for 2100 by Jan 2020In the upcoming days I'm confident we will see a continued rally in the S&P off of the news that Mr. Trump has solved "the problem" of the Mexico tariffs. While trying to remain as unbiased as possible, it is becoming more and more apparent that the current market news cycle could legitimately be subject to manipulation by Trump's continued belief that a strong market is indicative of his success in guiding the US economy. Seeing repeated bait and switch tactics on key economic policy decisions and the trade talks does not bode well for my confidence in long-term economic strength in both the real economy and the market.
Barring a true resolution of our engagement with China, I believe we are on course to see this head and shoulders pattern playout over the next 6-8 months. If the 2500 level breaks and confirms this pattern, a 38.2% retracement back to the 2100 levels for the S&P is certainly possible.
Keeping in mind that with such a long-term call as this, any major economic events that take place between now and then could drastically alter the circumstances that have preempted this view anticipating a continued decline on the major market indexes. I am by no means absolute on this position, and future developments will certainly be taken into account when assessing whether or not to maintain this position.
In anticipation of this rally, I will be working to assess when there is disparity on the premiums on long-term puts extending into 2020 on SPY. I hope to take advantage of potential price movement back into 290, to get cheap "insurance" on this market as I can cannot be confident in continued bullish momentum at this time.
INTC Has Massive Gap to Run DownINTC not only had a poor earnings season, but it also faces challenges from recent new tariffs in China. Intel’s stock price has fallen back to the lows of December 2018. This should provide support for the stock due to fundamentals.
USDCNY Blown Out and Moving HigherAs the trade tension heats up between the US and China, global traders have been putting pressure on the USDCNY.
On a technical basis,the RSI and MACD are strongly trending higher, indicating strong momentum higher for the USDCNY. Further, with the ADX firmly in trend, there are no signs of the rally in USDCNY slowing down.
If trade talks worsen or even fall apart, expect the USDCNY to move to 6.92.
Time to buy BMW? Day before ex-dividend dateBMW entered a bullish trend back in 13 May 2016, when it paid the dividend of 2016. Yesterday was at minimums of 2013 if we do not take into account Brexit effect on 2016. Today is the day before the ex-dividend date of 2019 and it offers a dividend yield of 5.12%. Nonetheless, it's worth reminding that BMW's 2018 Earnings where -16.9% YoY so in case you happen to buy shares today, do not hold them for long. A positive point for the auto sector is that Trump will delay tariffs on autos 6 months from now. Therefore, we might expierence some volatility with BMW stock and it could have a trend reversal right from today up to levels of 74-75€. So the final conclusion would be: Buy today, seize the dividend this month and sell in 5-6 months time depending on market news.
EUR/USD Next Target is 1.1305 Fueled By Chinese Tariff IncreaseThe EUR/USD currency pair has gotten a big boost as a result of China stating that it will impose tariffs on $60 Billion of U.S goods starting June 1st. This action has undoubtedly extended the ongoing trade war between the two countries.
China's declaration came three days after the US action of all most tripling tariffs on $200 Billion of Chinese imported goods.
The EUR/USD bullish momentum has picked up steam as a result of China's promise to raise tariffs on US goods. As a result of the actions of the two countries, the USD has take a hit in the short term. Click here to read the full article which includes predictions of the EUR/USD next target.
disclaimer: The above opinions should be used for research and educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice because we are not investment advisers.
Bearish On AMZN As Tariffs Heat Up - Failed at 20 EMA
I was not attempting to line these trend lines up. I just happened to find an amazing correlation from a more recent trend support line to the old resistance trend line from 2015-2018. What does this mean exactly? Well I'm not a pro at this or anything but I'd assume we can use it as confirmation that the newly formed support line is that it returned to is a strong one that it will most likely return to at some point. Let me know your thoughts. As for the more recent action, it appears that it failed to close above the 20 day EMA on Friday. For any bullish bets I'd definitely suggest waiting until it closes above the 20 day before getting involved in any overnight trades. This thing could retreat with any market action (tariffs) back to the 1794-1754 NASDAQ:AMZN area. (Which I believe happens soon)
$CMSS+$RENN Combo/Agreement-> $KXIN for $454,000,000 05/01/19www.globenewswire.com
www.globenewswire.com
$RENN The Original Parent Company currently holds 72% of the entire O/S
And has agreed to the below stipulation:
Upon the closing of the transactions contemplated in the Share Exchange Agreement in which CM Seven Star acquired 100% of the issued and outstanding securities of Kaixin, Renren received approximately 28.3 million ordinary shares of CM Seven Star, representing 71.7% of the total outstanding shares of CM Seven Star. An additional 4.7 million ordinary shares of CM Seven Star will be issued in exchange for currently outstanding options in Kaixin or reserved for issuance under the equity incentive plan of CM Seven Star. Additionally, 19.5 million earnout shares were issued in escrow. Approximately 20.4 million ordinary shares were redeemed in connection with the closing of the transaction. Kaixin has raised a total of $30.9 million from the business combination and related transactions, including $2.4 million that remains in the trust account established for the benefit of CM Seven Star’s public shareholders following the redemption and $28.5 million from convertible loans and a private placement.
Several Form 4's dropped at 9PM 05/11/19
CEO
565,700 Shares
www.sec.gov
COO
471,400 Shares
www.sec.gov
CTO
94,200 Shares
www.sec.gov
VP of Marketing
75,340 Shares
www.sec.gov
VP of Finance
94,200 Shares
www.sec.gov
VP of Fine Products
18,750 Shares
www.sec.gov
Director
1,060,875 Shares
www.sec.gov
Director
477,518 Shares
www.sec.gov
Director
9,530 Shares
www.sec.gov
Director
9,430 Shares
www.sec.gov
Macroeconomic and Political Long term effect on the EURUSD pairMay 9th 2019
EUR/USD
This is a time where the macroeconomics of the U.S are influencing this pair in conjunction with the technical analysis seen on the chart. However, the macroeconomics are having an 80% influence over the price movement at this time, while 20% of the movement is still attributed to the technical.
The EUR/USD has reacted inversely to the movement of the S&P500 over the last 4 days as President Trump warns more trade tariffs on Chinese goods and a potential trade war between the two Powerhouses. (Compare EURUSD to SP500 )
This threat has had negative outcomes for the S&P500, Dow, Nasdaq and virtually all major U.S stock indexes. This movement has trickled over into the currency markets, showing a devaluation of the U.S dollar causing the EUR/USD pair to rise to break through its weekly resistance on high volume pushing it to intraday new highs of 1.1250.
Since the initial push, the price seems to have consolidated in a textbook flag pattern, slowly sinking below the weekly resistance. While the price is consolidating, this is the perfect time for a trader to speculate on the direction of the next big move over the next week or coming months.
Macroeconomic & Political factors at play
There are a lot of macroeconomic factors at play with this currency pair over the next month and coming months which will make deciphering movements difficult but that is why trading isn't for everyone. This will be hard. And most likely won't be fun or a get rich quick scheme.
Here are the major events that are looming over the price movement of this currency pair this week/month.
1. Potential Trade War with US&China -
President Trump finds himself in a peculiar spot, boxed in between his 2016 campaign promises to be tough on China, and his self proclaimed measurement of presidential success being the S&P500. President Trump sees that if he continues to be tough on China, the S&P500 will react negatively which it has done for the last 3 times he has beefed up tough talks against China. Investors believe that if Trump pushes forward with more tariffs on Chinese goods this will spark retaliation from China which will hurt U.S businesses that rely on a good working relationship with China, and competitive pricing. When the tariffs were first introduced the S&P500 reacted negatively to it and U.S businesses felt the brute of the iron curtain of tariffs. Early in January, President Trump promised trade negotiations with China, and since then there was only good news of favorable outcomes from the negotiations. However, over the weekend President Trump tweeted that negotiations were not going as well as planned which caused the S&P500 to plummeted. If these negotiations aren't going as planned president Trump may decide to be tougher on China with increased tariffs which will spark a retaliatory trade war as China has already begun doing.
2. Brexit Looms - Let's not forget that Brexit still isn't done, and it is basically making the UK more and more confusing to be an investor. Brexit, which was supposed to happen in March 2019, has been delayed by Theresa May to ensure she can create a road map forward for the country. Brexit is now scheduled to happen in October to give the government more time to prepare the country. However, the uncertainty of what will happen next is hurting British businesses. A weak housing market, slumping autos production, declining investment and downbeat executives all suggest that continued confusion over Brexit has caused the UK economy to stagnate. As more news about Brexit is released throughout the month it will inevitably affect this currency pair.
BREXIT UNCERTAINTY
Original deadline: March 29, 2019
First delay: April 12, 2019
New extension: October 31, 2019
3. US Election Cycle - There is no doubt U.S Election cycles affect the stock markets and the currency markets. Most of the presidential candidates have already launched their campaigns and as respectable contenders slam the sitting president and gain polling numbers, investor begins to think what would what happen if this candidate wins. For example, during the 2016 presidential elections, investors believed Clinton would be the victor and her push to lower drug prices were going to inevitably hurt the pharma industry. Therefore investors began pulling out before the ballots were even cast. This month in the election cycle is something to watch out for not because of what the candidates will say, but because what President Trump may respond to. If Trump begins responding to candidate promises associated to the economy, this may be an insight into what he will campaign on and moreover, what he will do in the coming month with China.
4. US Unemployment Rate - The U.S recorded a record-breaking low unemployment rate last month of 3.6%. This will no doubt be one of President Trump's talking points during his 2020 campaign. This is important because of two things, 1. historically low unemployment proceeds a market crash and correction and 2. maintaining this low unemployment rate will be the main focus for President Trump to ensure his re-election in 2020. In President Trump's mind, he is winning and succeeding with the U.S economy. He is doing what he said he will do during his 2016 campaign. But now his problem is that he is in a lead way too early, he will have to try to maintain low unemployment rates through to his campaign trail so it can stay relevant in the voter's minds.
5. Trump's Stock Market - After being elected President, the stock markets rallied for the business-centric president Trump. Investors gained confidence that Trump will do what's best for the Economy, and for the most part he has done just that. Until of course, you start to look more recently. With a tweet, he sent over the weekend the stock markets each lost 1 to 2% of their value. This is not what President Trump wants, especially if he ends up reversing all the gains the market has had over his presidency.
President Trump does not want to have a weak stock market going into the Presidential Election Cycle, but he also doesn't want to be weak on China. The Vice Premier of China is flying into the U.S to complete trade negotiations with the U.S and we should expect a result within the next week.
With Brexit not scheduled to happen until October, I think that is far enough outside of the realm of affecting this currency pair this month. In my opinion, I believe President Trump will increase tariffs, even if for a while on China to show China that there are consequences to crossing this administration. But I believe those tariffs will be lessened in time before the presidential elections to give the markets time to recover and be in a growing state by the time he is on the campaign trail. I think his game plan will be to have the markets growing strong while on the campaign trail so that he can get re-elected and be tougher on China at a later date.
If these events play out the way I believe they will, May will see an increase in tariffs causing a 1-4% decrease in market indices over the May-July period resulting in an increase in the currency pair EUR/USD.
Companies affected by the tariff increase will report lower earnings through the August-October period. Causing an additional decline in the major US market indices. Further increasing the currency pair.
Lower earnings will result in some companies closing their doors or laying off workers. If this is done at a favorable rate this could actually curb the market crash theories and reverse the historical pattern. Or it can be a catalyst to the market crashing in November-January.
Lower earnings reported during the Aug-October months coupled with Brexit in October can result in a major shake-up of the EUR/USD pair. However, if the two forces are of equal size they may cancel each other out and we may so no real change to the EUR/USD pair in October-November.
These are thoughts that may affect the currency pair in the way presented, investing is a risk and this should not serve as a recommendation to invest but rather educational material.
UnitedHealth Group Price SurgeUNH defied the heavy selling due to fears of more Tariffs. An extra-long white candle formed without HFT activity. The stock has not broken through major bottoming resistance.
TAIEX and China Stocks Both Benefit From US-China Trade DealTAIEX enjoys a positive correlation coefficient with the Shanghai Composite which has strengthened consistently over the past few months. Then if we believe that a trade deal with the US is coming then the TAIEX will surely enjoy some gains as well even especially since TAIEX greatly outperforms Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component. However, TAIEX RSI is well into the overbought territory and let's also not forget TAIEX suffered its worst single day loss (6 percent) since the 2008 financial crisis back in January of 2018. More volatility to come?
Sell AUDUSD Because Chinese Growth Slowdown Isnt OverThere are plenty of technical reasons to avoid AUDUSD. Nearly all exponential moving averages, which more heavily weigh the more recent days than the ones further away, point towards a continuation in the downward trend. The bull bear power index also indicates that AUDUSD long is an overcrowded trade. Indeed, data from DailyFX backs up this claim with its data from its parent company IG which can be found here: www.dailyfx.com
But the thematic background is truly what will mainly driving this paid in conjunction with the likely poor data releases this weak. But the weakness in AUDUSD doesn't stem from inherent weakness in the Australian economy as much as it does weakness in the Chinese economy. Perhaps one could read this as splitting hairs since the Aussie economy is so dependent upon the Chinese. Either way, China's growth slowdown which is likely to continue amid speculation of prolonged trade war and tariffs will continue to put downward pressure on this pair. Never forget, you can trade the trend until its no longer a trend. Right now, we're still knee deep in bear signals.
If you like this analysis you can check out more of my work here www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
