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Can Soybeans Survive the Global Trade Chessboard?In the intricate game of international trade politics, soybeans have emerged as pivotal pieces on the global economic chessboard. The soybean industry faces a critical juncture as nations like the European Union and China implement protectionist strategies in response to US policies. This article delves into how these geopolitical moves are reshaping the future of one of America's most significant agricultural exports, challenging readers to consider the resilience and adaptability required in today's volatile trade environment. The European Union's decision to restrict US soybean imports due to the use of banned pesticides highlights a growing trend towards sustainability and consumer health in global trade. This move impacts American farmers and invites us to ponder the broader implications of agricultural practices on international commerce. As we witness these shifts, the question arises: How can the soybean industry innovate to meet global standards while maintaining its economic stronghold? China's strategic response, which targets influential American companies like PVH Corp., adds complexity to the global trade narrative. The placement of a major U.S. brand on China's 'unreliable entity' list highlights the power dynamics involved in international commerce. This situation prompts us to consider the interconnectedness of economies and the potential for unforeseen alliances or conflicts. What strategies can businesses implement to navigate these challenging circumstances? Ultimately, the soybean saga is more than a tale of trade disputes; it's a call to action for innovation, sustainability, and strategic foresight in the agricultural sector. As we watch this unfold, we are inspired to question not just the survival of soybeans but the very nature of global economic relationships in an era where every move on the trade chessboard can alter the game. How will the soybean industry, and indeed, international trade, evolve in response to these challenges?
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by UDIS_View
EURUSD 17 Feb 2025 W8 - Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 17 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment No major economic news for today and market sentiment still continuing as per my Weekly Analysis 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play. 🔹Price swept Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High to facilitate to the Daily and Weekly expected Bullish move. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing continuation after BOS, Waiting Swing pullback phase. 2️⃣ 🔹Bullish Swing structure continuing bullish aligning with the 4H Bullish Swing continuation phase. 🔹After the recent Swing BOS, INT structures continuing bullish and I’m expecting the 15m BOS pullback to start soon with Bearish iBOS. 🔹Current INT structures could be treated as Swing structures, but I prefer to have the 15m Swing Bullish even when we have a deep pullback. 🔹INT Structure still can hold bullish to facilitate the 4H target the Weak Swing High (Bullish BOS on 4H before pullback). 3️⃣ 🔹As it’s Monday and no much catalyst Today, I prefer longs from the INT structure demand following the bullish structures on 15m and 4H while knowing that pullback can start at any time soon where I can shift to Intraday Bearish after confirmation (Bearish iBOS).
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 17-21 Feb 2025 W8 - Weekly Analysis -EU ZEW - US FOMC/PMIThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 17-21 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment Weekly Chart AnalysisDaily Chart Analysis4H Chart AnalysisEconomic Events for the WeekRelated PostsLatest Weekly Analysis Market Sentiment Inflation Data Mix U.S. CPI and PPI came in hotter than expected, signaling lingering inflation pressures. However, softer underlying PPI components linked to the Fed’s preferred PCE metric raised hopes for a moderation in inflation next week. Fed Policy Expectations Investors are cautiously optimistic about potential Fed rate cuts later in 2025, despite the Fed’s current "wait-and-see" stance. A softer PCE report next week could solidify bets on easing monetary policy, supporting risk assets like the Euro. Trump’s Tariff Strategy Markets dismissed Trump’s reciprocal tariff threats as negotiation tactics rather than a prelude to a trade war. Investors expect delays in implementation, reducing immediate fears of economic disruption. Geopolitical Optimism Progress in Ukraine-Russia peace talks (e.g., territory swap discussions) eased global risk aversion, weakening the USD’s safe-haven appeal. Reduced geopolitical tensions benefit the Eurozone economy, indirectly lifting the Euro. Central Bank Divergence The ECB may cut rates further in 2025, but improving Eurozone data and reduced trade-war risks provide short-term EUR support. The Fed’s cautious tone limits USD upside, creating a balanced tug-of-war. Short-Term Bias Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation. Key Risks: A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness. Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks. This balance of factors suggests choppy but upward-leaning trading for EUR/USD. Weekly Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Internal Bearish 🔹In Swing Discount 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS) 3️⃣ 🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase. 🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicated that the liquidity was enough as per previous weeks analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS. 🔹Price pulled back after the Bullish CHoCH to the Weekly Demand formed and showed reaction after volatile week. 🔹With the previous week solid Bullish close, the Demand did hold and there is a high probability that price could continue Bullish to facilitate the INT structure pullback phase. 🔹If price to continue Bullish, price will be targeting the liquidity above Dec 2024, INT Structure EQ (50%) at 1.06933 to target the Weekly Supply in premium before continuing down to target the Weak INT Low. 🔹Expectations is for price to continue Bullish if it managed to break 1.05333 27 Jan High to facilitate the INT structure pullback. Daily Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone. 3️⃣ 🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone. 🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low. 🔹Price failed for the 2nd time to close below the Weak INT Low after mitigating the Daily Demand formed from the failure to close below the Weak INT Low which triggered aggressive Bullish reaction and mitigating the Daily Supply Zone formed from the recent Bearish CHoCH. 🔹After Supply mitigation, price continued Bearish following the Bearish INT Structure continuation phase. 🔹Previous week I mentioned “if the Daily formed a Bullish CHoCH (Currently above the recent mitigated Supply) this will shift my outlook to the Weekly Scenario of a deep pullback of the Weekly INT Structure to at least the Structure EQ (50%). MTF required to shift Bullish to confirm”. And with that happened I’d shifted to Bullish expectation and there is expectations of a deep pullback within the Daily Bearish INT structure. 🔹The expected targets for the current bullish move is 1st to sweep the liquidity above the equal highs (17 Dec & 27 Jan) 2nd Break of the Strong INT High to facilitate the Daily Bearish Swing pullback and the Weekly Bearish INT pullback. 🔹Currently Supply is failing and Demand is holding confirms the short-term Bullish scenario and setting my expectations for continuing Bullish. Price could pullback to the recent Daily Demand before continuing Bullish. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play. 🔹Price swept Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High to facilitate to the Daily and Weekly expected Bullish move. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 14 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday - EU GDP - US Retail SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 14 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment 1. Impact of CPI and PPI on Inflation Expectations CPI Outcome: The headline CPI rose to 3.0% YoY (vs. 2.9% forecast), while core CPI increased to 3.3% YoY, signaling persistent inflationary pressures 10. However, the market reaction was muted due to mixed signals. PPI Analysis: The headline PPI exceeded forecasts (3.5% YoY), but key components linked to core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred metric) suggested a potential moderation. Analysts noted that softer PCE data next week could ease Fed tightening fears, supporting risk assets like the Euro. Investor Positioning: Futures traders now price in 33 basis points of Fed cuts in 2025, up from 29 basis points pre-PPI, indicating growing optimism about disinflation. 2. Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs: Negotiation vs. Trade War Tariff Announcement: Trump’s directive to formulate reciprocal tariffs (e.g., 25% on steel/aluminum) was not immediately implemented, with a delayed enforcement timeline (potentially April). Markets interpreted this as a negotiation tactic rather than an escalation into a trade war. Market Reaction: The USD weakened (DXY fell to 107.25) as investors focused on the negotiation window and avoided panic-driven safe-haven flows. The Euro benefited from reduced trade-war fears, rising to $1.0469 in early Asian trade. 3. Geopolitical Optimism and Risk Sentiment Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks: Reports of potential territory swaps and Trump’s mediation efforts bolstered risk appetite. A resolution could alleviate Eurozone energy and supply-chain pressures, supporting EUR/USD. Equity Market Stability: European stocks (e.g., Euro STOXX 50) pared losses, with sectors like utilities and healthcare outperforming. This resilience reduced demand for the USD as a safe haven. 4. Central Bank Dynamics The ECB is expected to cut rates further (market pricing in 3 cuts in 2025), while the Fed maintains a cautious "higher-for-longer" stance. However, softer PCE expectations may narrow this divergence, favoring EUR/USD. 5. Key Risks and Catalysts Today U.S. Retail Sales & Industrial Production: Forecasts suggest a 0.2% MoM decline in retail sales (first drop in 5 months) and slower industrial production growth. Weak data could amplify USD selling. Tariff Negotiation Updates: Any hints of tariff implementation timelines or retaliatory measures from the EU/China may reignite volatility. Final Sentiment Summary Short-Term Bias:  Cautiously Bullish for EUR/USD. Support Factors: Soft PCE expectations, delayed tariffs, and geopolitical optimism. Investors will monitor retail sales data and tariff rhetoric for intraday momentum shifts. A softer PCE print next week could solidify bullish sentiment, while tariff escalation remains the primary risks. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play. 🔹Currently price is sweeping Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High. A decent pullback is also expected if the Liq. is enough and market sentiment is aligning with the pullback (Requires market Fear/ Risk-Off). 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Pullback 2️⃣ 🔹Swing structures continued Bullish with 2 Bullish BOS yesterday (High Volatility). 🔹The current 15m Bullish structures confirms for me the 4H Bullish Swing continuation and we are targeting high. 🔹After the recent 15m Swing BOS, we expect a pullback. Current structure doesn’t have much clear demand zone (the 70% of the structure is a 4H Demand zone). 🔹Price expected to have a pullback to the recent demand identified (Not well positioned as it’s in premium) or to structure EQ (50%)/Discount to continue Bullish and target the Weak Swing High. 🔹I want to note that the 4H had swept Liq. above 30 Jan High which could initiate a decent pullback on price after that aggressive move up. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation of price to continue Bullish as long the Swing Low hold and pullbacks are contained within the structure.
by Amr-Sadek
Reciprocal tariffs teased, markets react President Donald Trump has just signed a sweeping reciprocal tariff plan. The directive instructs the U.S. to develop new levies on a country-by-country basis but stopped short of implementing any immediate levies. The Dow reached an intraday high after the market realized the reciprocal tariff process could take weeks or months. In forex, the biggest gainers have been the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, although the British pound is performing well too. Wells Fargo predict that the tariffs could slow economic growth this year, describing them as a “modest stagflationary shock”. A study from the Peterson Institute estimates that existing import tariffs on Chinese, Mexican, and Canadian goods already cost the average American household over $1,200 annually, with reciprocal tariffs likely adding to that burden.
by BlackBull_Markets
$GOLD EASES FROM RECORD HIGHS AHEAD OF U.S. INFLATION DATAGOLD EASES FROM RECORD HIGHS AHEAD OF U.S. INFLATION DATA 1/7 Gold hit a record high of $2,942.70/oz on Feb 11, fueled by safe-haven demand amid fresh U.S. tariffs. Today, it’s dipped 0.2% to $2,892.50 as investors take profits and watch U.S. inflation data. Let’s dig in! 💰⚖️ 2/7 – RECENT PRICE ACTION • All-time high at $2,942.70/oz—sparked by President Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel & aluminum • Spot gold now at $2,892.50 (↓0.2%), with futures at $2,931.40 (↓0.1%) • The rally’s paused—are we in for a short breather or a bigger correction? 🤔 3/7 – TARIFF TENSIONS • 25% tariffs raise global trade war fears, boosting gold’s safe-haven appeal • Markets worried about inflation, as import costs could climb • Gold remains a hedge against economic uncertainty and currency devaluation 🌐⛔️ 4/7 – MACROECONOMIC DRIVERS • Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish comments on rate policy sent gold lower—higher rates often weigh on non-yielding assets • U.S. inflation data (due soon) could shape the Fed’s next move—any upside surprise might strengthen the dollar, pressuring gold further 5/7 – INVESTOR SENTIMENT • Profit-taking: After a massive run-up, traders might lock in gains • Safe Haven: Still an underlying bullish sentiment if tariffs escalate • The $2,900–$2,950 range is in focus—will gold consolidate or stage another breakout? 6/7 Where’s gold heading next? 1️⃣ Above $3,000—safe haven demand remains strong ✨ 2️⃣ Sideways around $2,900—pausing for data 🏖️ 3️⃣ Back under $2,850—hawkish Fed sinks gold ⬇️ Vote below! 🗳️👇 7/7 – STRATEGY WATCH • Short-Term: Watch U.S. inflation data & dollar moves—gold typically moves opposite the greenback • Long-Term: If tariffs stoke inflationary pressure, gold may shine even brighter. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments! 🌎
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DCAChampion
2
DeepSeek Is Not What the Market FearsWith the emergence of DeepSeek, tech stocks have generally dropped by 6% over these few short days across all US indices, but from the peak in late November to December, we saw a much more massive drop among all of them. The Russell 2000, representing small and medium-sized enterprises in the U.S., declined by 12%, What triggered this sell-off in the tech giants (Nasdaq), the old guards (Dow Jones), the suite of blue-chip stocks (S&P 500), and the medium-sized firms (Russell 2000)? Markets are inter-connected. What should we be looking out for, and how should we navigate if the market break below this recent all-time low? E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options Ticker: ES Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $12.50 Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options Ticker: MES Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $1.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Trading competition: www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by konhow
Gold's Parabolic Momentum After the FOMC CrashGold has entered full acceleration mode, displaying a textbook parabolic move following the recent FOMC-induced volatility. After an initial shakeout that saw weak hands liquidated, price has rebounded with unrelenting bullish momentum, carving out higher highs with surgical precision. This parabolic curve reflects strong institutional demand, as each shallow dip is aggressively bought up, confirming that buyers remain firmly in control. The angle of ascent is steepening, signaling that we may be entering the euphoric phase of this trend. Key levels to watch: 📈 If momentum sustains, the next logical targets could be previous key resistance zones or Fibonacci extension levels. 📉 A break of the parabolic curve could signal exhaustion and bring a deeper correction before the next leg up. Is gold setting up for a blow-off top, or does this rally have more fuel left? Drop your thoughts below! 👇🔥 #Gold #Momentum #FOMC #Trading
TVC:GOLDLong
by GiancarloZacc
Australia dollar eyes confidence dataThe Australian dollar has started the week with gains.  In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6275, up 0.60% on the day. Australia releases business and consumer confidence on Tuesday, with the markets expecting some improvement.  Westpac Consumer Sentiment is expected to rebound and gain 0.4% in February after a 0.7% decline in January.  The National Australian Bank business confidence index is projected to improve to zero in January, after a -2 reading in December. China's inflation was a mix, as consumer inflation rose to a five-month high while producer inflation continued to decline.  CPI jumped 0.5% y/y in January, up from 0.1% in December and above the market estimate of 0.4%.  This was the highest level since August.  Monthly CPI rose 0.7%, up sharply from zero in December and an 11-month high, but shy of the market estimate of 0.8% The producer price index fell 2.3% y/y in January unchanged from December and deeper than the market estimate of 2.1%.  This points to deflation which is likely to worsen if the trade war between the US and China continues.  On Monday, China's retaliatory tariffs kicked in after the US hit China with tariffs last week. US nonfarm payrolls decelerate, unemployment falls US nonfarm payrolls eased to 143 thousand in January, shy of the market estimate of 175 thousand.  Still, there weres signs of strength in the labor market - nonfarm payrolls were revised by 100 thousand in the previous two months and the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4% from 4.1%, below the market estimate of 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.5%, up from 0.3% in December and above the market estimate of 0.5%.  Annually, average hourly earnings rose 4.1%, unchanged from the revised December reading and above the market estimate of 3.8%.  The generally positive employment report supports the  case for the Federal Reserve continuing to hold rates, possibly until the third quarter. Just a few months ago, it appeared that the Fed would stay aggressive and continue lowering rates into 2025, but with the economy purring along we might see only one or two rate cuts this year. There is resistance at 0.6351 and 0.6430 There is support at 0.6220 and 0.6141
by OANDA
$SPY: Three timeframe analysis, One Chart Pattern, Sentiment📢!Hey there! #Tariffs negative news drives bearish sentiment. Is it just mass media noise? And Mr. Market will continue up? WHY? Let's have a look at the charts: 1. 📈We are in a bullish trend on a weekly and monthly basis, meaning long-term and mid-term, yet in a bearish on a daily one, a ka short-term 2. 🤓The bullish Flag pattern has formed. Yeah, I know; how do you qualify it? For this theoretical exercise only visually, but for anything more serious, Bukowski starts, or you may want to run your own tests. 3. 🍒And the cherry on top: Bearish sentiment is significantly higher than the historical average, standing at 42.9% (2/5/2025) compared to 31.0%. On my side, it means that we might be in for a heavy short squeeze for a couple of days.👋Just observations, not advice For now, enjoy Super Bowl Sunday! 🏈 S ource of the screenshot: AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, www.aaii.com
AMEX:SPYLong
by ChartsPlusFun
China - U.S. Tariff Trade War!🩸China has slapped the U.S. with 10% tariffs on Energy products & automobiles as a retaliation🩸 China’s tariffs on U.S. energy & cars will hurt American exporters by reducing demand & pushing down prices, affecting profitability. Energy producers may struggle with oversupply, while automakers like Tesla and Ford face declining sales in China. The move escalates U.S.-China trade tensions, discouraging investment and increasing market volatility. While lower energy prices could help inflation, job losses in key industries may offset any benefits. U.S. policymakers might respond with countermeasures. If tensions rise further, a broader trade conflict could emerge, increasing risks for the global economy.
TVC:DXY
by BA_Investments
EURUSD 10-14 Feb 2025 W7 - Weekly Analysis - US CPI/PPI/PowellThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 10-14 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment Weekly Chart Analysis Daily Chart Analysis 4H Chart Analysis Economic Events for the Week Market Sentiment Mixed Labor Market Signals The February 7 NFP report showed 143K new jobs (below expectations of 170K), signaling potential cooling in the labor market. However, strong wage growth (0.5% MoM, 4.1% YoY) and a 4% unemployment rate (down from 4.1%) suggest lingering inflationary pressures. Markets may interpret this as a "Goldilocks" scenario: cooling job growth could delay Fed rate hikes, but elevated wage inflation keeps stagflation risks alive. Tariff Volatility and Trade Uncertainty Trump’s tariffs (10% on China, delayed 25% on Canada/Mexico) dominate market psychology. While tariffs are a negotiation tool, their sudden implementation and reversal create uncertainty. For example: Automotive and energy sectors face direct risks due to integrated North American supply chains. Consumer goods (e.g., electronics, produce) may see price hikes, amplifying inflation fears. Retaliatory measures from China add to global trade tensions. Week major news events Fed’s Powell testifies ECB Lagarde Speech US CPI, PPI and Retail Sales EU GDP Given the forecasts and the recent NFP report showing slower job growth, market sentiment could be cautious. If the CPI and PPI readings come in higher than expected, it could reinforce concerns about inflation and lead to USD Strength. Investors might seek safe-haven assets. Conversely, if the CPI and PPI readings are in line with or lower than expectations, it could provide some relief to the markets and support a more positive sentiment which will lead to Weaker USD. Weekly Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Internal Bearish 🔹In Swing Discount 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS) 3️⃣ 🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase. 🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicated that the liquidity was enough as per previous week analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS. 🔹Price pulled back after the Bullish CHoCH to the Weekly Demand formed and showed reaction after a volatile week. 🔹Price still looking bearish to target the Weak INT low to target the Weekly unmitigated demand. Ultimately targeting the Swing Weak Low. 🔹Noticing that the Bearish INT Low didn’t pullback to at least the INT Structure EQ (50%) so there is a chance that price could hold the current Weekly Demand to fulfil the i-BOS pullback phase which will require MTF to confirm this scenario. 🔹Expectation is set to Bearish continuation targeting the Weak INT Low and the unmitigated Weekly Demand. Daily Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone. 3️⃣ 🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone. 🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low. 🔹Price failed for the 2nd time to close below the Weak INT Low after mitigating the Daily Demand formed from the failure to close below the Weak INT Low which triggered aggressive Bullish reaction and mitigating the Daily Supply Zone formed from the recent Bearish CHoCH. 🔹After Supply mitigation, price continued Bearish following the Bearish INT Structure continuation phase. 🔹Expectations is price to continue Bearish to target the Weak INT Low and hopefully we get a confirmed close which is fulfilling the Weekly target of continuing Bearish. 🔹Notice that if the Daily formed a Bullish CHoCH (Currently above the recent mitigated Supply) this will shift my outlook to the Weekly Scenario of a deep pullback of the Weekly INT Structure to at least the Structure EQ (50%). MTF required to shift Bullish to confirm. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios: Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs are staying Bearish. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 5 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - EU PPI - US ADP/PMIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 5 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Investors remain cautious but are gradually finding footing after recent bouts of volatility linked to aggressive trade measures and policy uncertainty. The sentiment can best be described as a mix of risk aversion amid global trade tensions and a tentative willingness to engage as economic data remains broadly resilient. The U.S. dollar has experienced modest strength but remains under pressure due to the broader uncertainty in trade dynamics and the potential for escalating tariffs, particularly from ongoing actions against major trade partners even with pause of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The target is Europe. Federal Reserve Outlook: While the recent policy stance has been one of a pause, the Fed is expected to continue monitoring inflationary trends closely. Any future adjustments to monetary policy are likely to be data-dependent, with the current sentiment suggesting that policymakers will remain cautious amid trade-induced uncertainties. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the Bearish iBOS, price confirmed the Swing pullback phase. 🔹We reached the Swing extreme demand which triggered a V-shape reaction indicating the bullish continuation. 🔹Price is currently targeting the liquidity (CHoCH) at 1.04342 (15m Swing High). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish for the Bullish 4H Swing Continuation after reaching the Swing Extreme Demand. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Pullback 2️⃣ 🔹Swing turned bearish signaling the 4H/Daily bearish continuation. 🔹After a BOS we expect a Pullback, price pulled back with series of Bullish INT structures reaching the 4H Supply and the 15m Swing extreme. 🔹While the 4H Swing Structure is Bullish, 15m Swing still Bearish. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue bullish to sweep the 4H liquidity (Forming a Bullish
by Amr-Sadek
Tariffs and Their Influence on GoldWe observed how gold has pivoted upward so precisely each time tariffs were applied since the start of the trade war in 2018. Before the trade war, gold remained stagnant within this range. However, with the onset of the trade war, everything changed for gold. We will conduct a case study since 2018, analyzing how gold has reacted to each significant tariff imposed. With the latest proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, what could be the potential trend for gold, and how should it be managed above the current level? Gold Futures & Options Ticker: GC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 Micro Gold Futures & Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 er troy ounce = $1.00 1Ounce Gold Futures Ticker: 1OZ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 per troy ounce = $0.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TVC:GOLDLong
by konhow
8
USD/CAD got absolutely 'hammered' on MondayTrump's trade negotiations provided USD/CAD with its most volatile daily range since the height of the Pandemic. Yet the surprise announcement that Trump is pausing Canada's tariffs for 30 days saw prices reverse sharply lower, to close the day with an elongated bearish hammer. Does that pave the way for an immediate reversal lower? Not necessarily. Using price action and market position, I explain why. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
LSE:CAD
by CityIndex
EUR/USD slides on tariff turmoil, euro CPI risesThe euro has weakened at the start of the new week. EUR/USD slumped over the weekend and dropped as low as 1.0141, its lowest level since Nov. 2022. The euro has recovered somewhat on Monday and is trading at 1.0277 in the North American session. Still, the euro has dropped 0.76% since Friday's close. US President Trump hasn't wasted any time and imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada over the weekend, effective February 4. Mexico and Canada have both announced retaliatory tariffs in response. Earlier today, just one day before the tariffs were to take effect, the US announced that the tariffs against Mexico would be delayed for a month. The breather is good news, but the US could still find itself embroiled in a trade war with its two neighbors, in what is the world's largest trade zone. Trump hasn't slapped the European Union with any tariffs yet, but said on Friday that he would "absolutely" go after imports from the EU. Global markets have been hit by fears of a global trade war resulting from the US tariffs and the US dollar is up sharply against most of the major currencies, including the euro. Inflation in the eurozone ticked upwards to 2.5% y/y in January from 2.4% in December, above the market estimate of 2.4%. This was the highest CPI level since July 2024, driven mainly by a sharp jump in energy prices. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, remained unchanged at 2.7% y/y for a fifth straight month, just above the market estimate of 2.6%. This is above the European Central Bank's 2% target but is the lowest level since January 2022. Services inflation, which is closely watched by the ECB, eased to 3.9% in January, down from 4% in December. Today's inflation report affirms that inflationary risks remain and could complicate the ECB's plans to reduce interest rates and kick-start the weak eurozone economy. The ECB meets next on March 6. EUR/USD has pushed above resistance at 1.0244 and is testing resistance at 1.0297 There is support at 1.0203 and 1.0175 www.tradingview.com
by OANDA
Trump’s Trade War Risks Throwing Markets into Chaos. TARIFFic?Apparently, Trump has slapped Mexico, Canada and China with hefty tariffs. Now all these three are either already retaliating with their own levies on US goods or getting ready to do so. The complex interplay of back-and-forth tariffs risks turning friends into foes and driving up prices. All the while the end consumer is likely to cover the difference. President Donald Trump on Saturday actually went ahead and did what he wanted to do. He launched the game of tariffs. He hit Mexico, Canada and China with hefty import duties, threatening to throw the world’s trade into a spiral of ill intentions, retaliations and higher prices for your Stanley cups and iPhones. The looming destabilization is already coming from both ends — Canada swiftly imposed 25% levies on roughly $20 billion of US goods coming into the country on Tuesday. Another $85 billion worth of goods are getting the same treatment within the next three weeks. China, where nearly everything you get your hands on is made, said it will “take necessary countermeasures to defend its rights and interests.” Trump’s new order requires Canada and Mexico to pay 25% tariffs on imports to the US (with a partial carve out for Canada’s energy and oil exports — 10% levies apply there). The US President was gearing up for a 60% tariff rate on China while he was running for office but said he’s imposing a 10% tariff that will likely get higher in time. These three countries in 2023 collectively accounted for about 40% of all US imports. That year, the US imported about $3.85 trillion worth of goods. In November 2024, the US pulled in about $351 billion worth of stuff and then sold it to Americans. What are tariffs and who pays them? At the basic level, tariffs are a way for an economy to protect itself from foreign competition. Through tariffs, domestic businesses are somewhat shielded from outside interference and can snatch up a bigger portion of the local market. Tariffs are just taxes placed on products that are made overseas and then imported to the country. Here’s the kicker: the foreign companies that make these goods and then import them aren’t on the hook for paying the tariffs — American businesses are. Tech companies like Apple AAPL , which makes about 95% of its stuff in China, or Tesla TSLA , which makes half of its cars in China, will end up paying more for their products as they come into the US. Who’s collecting that import duty? The US government. What could happen when these tariffs get cracking? The US consumer will most likely cover the difference. Nearly every product will be affected — from cars to baby toys to the already expensive eggs (can egg prices get even higher?) Here’s an example: potash, the product that’s used by US farmers as fertilizer, just got 25% more expensive. That extra cost, paid by the farmers, is likely to trickle down to the end consumer so farmers could keep trucking and produce at the same rates. What could happen to the stock market? One thing is certain — the companies that don’t pass on the added cost to the consumer will see their corporate profits dwindle. But if they want to keep generating value for shareholders, they’ll need to pass it forward to the end user. With the first quarter now well under way, the next earnings season will be a sight to see. (Friendly reminder to keep an eye on the economic calendar for all corporate earnings and updates.) An analysis from Barclays estimates that all S&P 500 companies could see their profits shrink by 2.8% once the tariffs get in full flow. Perhaps a bigger, scarier fallout is possible. Inflation can perk up again. Inevitably, the higher costs across the border risk undoing what the Federal Reserve was doing to combat inflation. Goldman Sachs came out with the forecast that the looming tariffs could have an initial knock on effect on inflation to the tune of 0.7% to the upside. Gross domestic product could drop 0.4%. And most of all, there’s one thing investors fear the most. Rising inflation could bring back interest rate hikes. A revival in consumer prices might prompt the Federal Reserve to walk back its intentions of more interest rate cuts and lean against the economy by raising borrowing costs. There are early signs of this already. Fed chief Jay Powell last week said the central bank is in a wait-and-see phase as Trump’s policies unfurl. The scary tariffs already knocked the wind out of stocks and crypto. Monday morning saw one of its worst openings in years, especially for Ethereum ETHUSD . The second-largest coin fell as much as 27% from the get-go as the bullish sentiment was nowhere to be seen. Bitcoin BTCUSD also got a slap losing 6% in its first deals to settle near $91,000 before paring back some of the drop. And stock futures were looking at steep declines with Dow futures DJI shedding as much as 700 points ahead of the opening bell in New York. The only winner was the US dollar DXY , which stands to gain popularity in a high-tariff environment. Until now, the market has been overwhelmingly on Trump’s side. He stepped into the White House riding on the promises of a strong economy and booming business. But if he takes aim (even indirectly) at shareholders’ profits, he might end up losing the support of all those billionaire executives who worked hard to get him elected. What do you think? Is Trump acting in the best interest of America or is he driving markets into a ditch? Share your thoughts below!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
55
DXY Analysis & ConsiderationsOverall Trend & Context: Long-Term Uptrend: The DXY exhibits a clear uptrend from late 2023, indicating persistent USD strength. Key Levels: Resistance Zone (109.50 - 110.00): This zone has proven a challenge for the DXY to break decisively. A sustained break above this level is crucial for further upside. Support Zone (107.00 - 108.00): This zone has provided support during pullbacks. EMAs (25, 50, 100, 200 - 4-Hour Chart): The DXY is trading above all EMAs, a bullish sign. The 25 EMA is acting as dynamic support, and a bullish crossover (25 above 50) has occurred. Potential Scenarios & Probabilities: Bullish Breakout (High Probability) : The bullish EMA alignment favor an upside breakout above 110.00. Increased volume would confirm this scenario. Pullback to Support/EMAs (Medium Probability) : A pullback towards the support line or the 25 EMA (around 108.80 - 109.00) is plausible, especially given the overbought RSI. This could offer a good long entry opportunity. Breakdown Below Support (Low - Medium Probability) : A break below the support line and the EMAs would weaken the bullish outlook and could lead to a deeper correction. Trading Considerations: xxxUSD pairs - If the dollar goes up we should look for short positions. USDxxx pairs - If Dollar goes up we can look for long positions. A pullback to the support zones or the 25 EMA could offer a lower-risk long entry, provided these levels hold and there is sufficient demand on the USDxxx pair you're trading. (technicals should always be prioritized) Consider placing stop-loss orders below key support/demand levels to manage risk. Look for increased volume during breakouts or bounces off support to strengthen signals. Watch for bearish divergence on the RSI as a potential bearish warning sign on the DXY. Geopolitical Factors: De-dollarization Efforts: Some countries are exploring alternatives to the US dollar for trade and reserves. While this is a long-term trend, any significant announcements or actions could impact the dollar's value.   Sanctions and Trade Policies: US sanctions and trade policies can influence the dollar's strength, particularly against the currencies of targeted countries. The US imposed tariffs are creating ripples right now. Let's quickly look at what 'tariffs' are - By now you should all know about the US imposed tariffs on several major trading partners including China, Canada and Mexico (and that they've retaliated with their own tariffs on US goods). What does this all mean? In the US any goods that are imported from Canada for example, will now cost more to the general public. To put it simply, the US is now charging a "handlers fee" and that will increase the overall price. These tariffs are intended to encourage these countries to change their trade practices. The tariffs have disrupted global supply chains, increased costs for businesses, and created uncertainty. Make no mistake, this is without a doubt, a trade war. Potential Impacts on the US Dollar: Positive Impact: Safe-haven demand: Increased global economic uncertainty due to the trade war could drive investors towards the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, increasing demand and its value. People will flock to the take no s#it protocols implemented by the Trump administration. Reduced imports: If tariffs lead to a significant decrease in US imports, there could be less demand for foreign currencies to purchase those imports, indirectly increasing demand for USD. This means that trade conducted by the US will increase the overall Dollar output - thus making it seem more valuable. (If we assume the Trump administration is playing petty games, we're badly misinformed, we should assume that these are well calculated risks) Negative Impact: Reduced US exports: Tariffs can make US goods less competitive, leading to a decrease in exports. This can reduce foreign demand for USD, as fewer foreign buyers need dollars to purchase US goods. Economic slowdown: The trade war could negatively impact economic growth in the US and globally. A slowdown in the US economy could make the dollar less attractive to investors. Retaliatory tariffs: If other countries retaliate with their own tariffs on US goods, it can further dampen US exports and reduce demand for the dollar. Trade Wars and Uncertainty: The uncertainty and potential for escalation associated with trade wars can negatively impact investor confidence and lead to a flight to safety. While the USD is often seen as a safe haven, extreme uncertainty could lead investors to seek other safe-haven assets or reduce their overall exposure to USD (Right now Gold is something you should be looking into as a trader and investor). Final Notes: The technical picture is strong and does favour a breakout. But the geopolitical risks reduce the probability. Be prepared for fundamentals to override technicals in the short term. Given the heightened risks, traders should be cautious and wait for clear confirmation signals before taking positions. Closely follow news related to the debt ceiling, economic data, and geopolitical events. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
TVC:DXYLong
by Apexfx_Alpha