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Tariffs

US-China Rift: India's Golden Hour?Heightened trade tensions between the United States and China, characterized by substantial US tariffs on Chinese goods, inadvertently create a favorable environment for India. The significant difference in tariff rates—considerably lower for Indian imports than Chinese ones—positions India as an attractive alternative manufacturing base for corporations seeking to mitigate costs and geopolitical risks when supplying the US market. This tariff advantage presents a unique strategic opening for the Indian economy. Evidence of this shift is already apparent, with major players like Apple reportedly exploring increased iPhone imports from India and even accelerating shipments ahead of tariff deadlines. This trend extends beyond Apple, as other global electronics manufacturers, including Samsung and potentially even some Chinese firms, evaluate shifting production or export routes through India. Such moves stand to significantly bolster India's "Make in India" initiative and enhance its role within global electronics value chains. The potential influx of manufacturing activity, investment, and exports translates into substantial tailwinds for India's benchmark Nifty 50 index. Increased economic growth, higher corporate earnings for constituent companies (especially in manufacturing and logistics), greater foreign investment, and positive market sentiment are all likely outcomes. However, realizing this potential requires India to address persistent challenges related to infrastructure, policy stability, and ease of doing business, while also navigating competition from other low-tariff nations and seeking favorable terms in ongoing trade negotiations with the US.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by UDIS_View
SPY Analysis & Tariff TurmoilLast Friday, the market pressure was intense, and my bullish call option, targeting $537.64 on SPY, seemed overly ambitious as tariffs and political uncertainties peaked. I stated, " AMEX:SPY Trump went all in thinking he had the cards. We were getting sent back to the McKinley era," wondering when or if Trump would fold under international pressure and market realities. Fast-forward to Wednesday, April 8—Trump didn't just blink; he folded utterly, reversing the harsh tariff policies he initially defended aggressively. Prompted by China's aggressively dumping of U.S. Treasuries and stark recession warnings from Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and JPMorgan, Trump pivoted significantly: • Base tariffs: 10% • Tariffs on China: Increased to 125% • Tariffs on U.S. goods entering China: Increased to 84% starting April 10 While temporarily bullish, these sudden, dramatic policy swings underline ongoing instability and volatility. However, with big bank earnings on deck this Friday, short-term momentum looks positive. Technical Levels & Trade Ideas Hourly Chart The hourly chart reveals a critical zone—dubbed "Liberation Day Trapped Longs"—between $544.37 (H. Vol Sell Target 1b) and $560.54 (L. Vol ST 2b). Bulls trapped here from recent highs may now look to exit on a relief rally. • Bullish Scenario: • Entry: SPY reclaiming and holding above $544.37. • Target 1: $560.54 (top of trapped longs) • Target 2: $566.54 (next resistance area) • Stop Loss: Below recent lows near $535 to limit downside. • Bearish Scenario (if tariffs intensify again or earnings disappoint): • Entry: Breakdown confirmation below $535. • Target 1: $522.20 (Weeks Low Long) • Target 2: $510.00, potential further support • Stop Loss: Above $544.50 to manage risk effectively. Daily Chart Perspective The broader daily chart shows SPY stabilizing around key lower supports after significant volatility. Recent price action suggests cautious optimism for an upward bounce, but considerable headwinds remain if tariff escalations resume. Final Thoughts The rapid tariff reversals and heightened volatility are unsettling. The short-term bullish move offers potential quick upside trades into earnings, but caution remains paramount. You can continue managing risks prudently and watch closely for political or economic headlines that could quickly shift market sentiment again.
AMEX:SPY
by HispanicHedge
4
$BTC consequences of the Trump 90 days tariff pauseCan It Last? Is This a Trend Reversal? Today, #Bitcoin surged over +8%, but surprisingly, #Tesla outperformed with a massive +20%—almost as much as $FARTCOIN! 🤯 History is being written, and we’ll remember this day… but is this truly the end of the consolidation phase? What to Watch: 📈 Price Action: Bitcoin must break above the descending trendline (in green) and close a daily candle above it to flip resistance into support. The price to watch is $84.5k. Closing under 80k would invalidate this pump. 📊 RSI: Currently in mid-range—could swing either way. 🔁 MACD: Was turning bearish. We need a clear bullish crossover to confirm a trend continuation. Conclusion: With all the recent global tensions, many investors are feeling a sense of relief, especially as the trade war appears paused until September. This gives markets some breathing room to recover. However, it’s not all clear skies yet: Bitcoin is still stuck inside the descending bearish channel. The recession risk hasn't gone away. Trump may have been pressured to offer good news to avoid a full-blown market crash. 🕵️‍♂️ Let’s see how the weekly candle closes after this sharp move to the upside.
by CryptoNikkoid
Yen surges to six-month high, BoJ cautiousThe Japanese yen continues to make inroads against the US dollar. In the North American session, USD/JPY is up 1.1% on Wednesday, trading at 144.60. Earlier, the yen strengthened to 143.98, its strongest level since Sept. 2024. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday that the central bank will have to determine the impact of US trade policy on growth and inflation in Japan. Ueda said that US tariffs had created new uncertainty and signaled that the BoJ might hold off on further interest rates until the situation became more clear. Ueda repeated that the BoJ would raise rates if the economy continued to improve, and currently, underlying inflation was rising and moving closer to 2% target. The uptake is that the BoJ is being very cautious with all the turmoil in the markets and is dampening expectations of a rate hike at the May 1 meeting. FOMC minutes - still relevant? The Federal Reserve will post its minutes of the March rate meeting. Investors scrutinize the minutes for policy clarity but global economic developments are unfolding so quickly that it's questionable if the minutes will be relevant with the massive market sell-off and the trade war between the US and China. Earlier today, the US lifted tariffs on China to an astounding 104% and China has retaliated with an 84% counter-tariff. The turmoil in the financial markets has nervous investors looking for safer shores, and are parking their funds in safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. In April, the yen has jumped 3.3% against the US dollar, while the Swiss franc has soared 5% against the greenback. USD/JPY has pushed below support at 145.46 and is putting pressure on support at 144.64 There is resistance at 146.79 and 147.61
by OANDA
Walmart Withdraws Earnings Guidance Amid Tariff UncertaintyWalmart (NYSE: NYSE:WMT ) has withdrawn its operating profit forecast for the current quarter. The company cited tariff-related uncertainties as the reason. Rising import duties from countries like China and Vietnam have impacted cost structures. Walmart aims to keep pricing flexible to protect margins. Despite the near-term challenges, Walmart reaffirmed its full-year guidance. The retailer expects net sales to grow between 3% and 4%. It also sees adjusted operating profit growth between 3.5% and 5.5% for the year. Walmart highlighted additional concerns, including insurance-related costs and shifts in consumer behavior. Shoppers are spending more on low-margin essentials due to inflation. This change in product mix has also pressured the company’s margins. CEO Doug McMillon said Walmart will continue focusing on pricing discipline, inventory efficiency, and expense control. He admitted that the current environment remains unpredictable. However, the company will stick to its long-term strategy. Technical Analysis Walmart’s stock is currently trading at $90.46, up 10.53%, with a high of $90.80. The price has bounced from a strong support zone near $82, forming a bullish momentum candle. NYSE:WMT is now testing a resistance area at $89, previously a demand zone. A successful break and retest could lead to a rally toward the $105.30 previous high. However, rejection at this level could see the price fall back to the $82 support. But with the recent bullish momentum, a breakout at $89 is possible.
NYSE:WMTLong
by DEXWireNews
Amazon I Technical & Tariff Analysis Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** Amazon Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by BKTradingAcademy
1
Bitcoin Eyes $81,500 Resistance Following Trump's Tariff Pause. 🚨 **Market Update** 🚨 President Donald Trump has announced a 90-day pause on the full effect of new tariffs for certain countries, and the markets are reacting strongly! 📈 Both the stock and crypto markets are surging as a result. Right now, **Bitcoin** is testing the $81,500 resistance level on the 1-hour timeframe. 💥 Our trading strategy: let it break the resistance and sustain above it, then look for a solid entry on the pullback. Stay tuned and trade wisely! 🚀💰
Long
by Kartik_Elkunchwar
Trump's Tariff Wars : Why It Is Critical To Address Global TradeThis video, a continuation of the Trump's Tariff Wars video I created last week, tries to show you why it is critically important that we, as a nation, address the gross imbalances related to US trade to global markets that are resulting in a $1.5-$1.8 TRILLION deficit every fiscal year. There has been almost NOTHING done about this since Trump's last term as President. Our politicians are happy to spend - spend - spend - but none of them are worries about the long-term fiscal health of the US. (Well, some of them are worried about it - but the others seem to be completely ignorant of the risks related to the US). Trump is raising this issue very early into his second term as president to protect ALL AMERICANS. He is trying to bring the issue into the news to highlight the imbalances related to US trade throughout the world. When some other nation is taking $300B a year from the us with an unfair tariff rate - guess what, we need to make that known to the American consumer because we are the ones that continue to pay that nation the EXTRA every year. Do you want to keep paying these other nations a grossly inefficient amount for cheap trinkets, or do you want our politicians and leaders to take steps to balance the trade deficits more efficiently so we don't pass on incredible debt levels to our children and grandchildren? So many people simply don't understand what is at risk. Short-term - the pain may seem excessive, but it may only last 30, 60, 90 days. Long-term - if we don't address this issue and resolve it by negotiating better trade rates, this issue will destroy the strength of the US economy, US Dollar, and your children's future. Simply put, we can't keep going into debt without a plan to attempt to grow our GDP. The solution to this imbalance is to grow our economy and to raise taxes on the uber-wealthy. We have to grow our revenues and rebalance our global trade in an effort to support the growth of the US economy. And, our politicians (till now) have been more than happy to ignore this issue and hide it from the American people. They simply didn't care to discuss it or deal with it. Trump brought this to the table because it is important. I hope you now see HOW important it really is. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
19
We’ve seen a solid correction in NVDA - Bullish?We’ve seen a solid correction in NVDA following its rally since early 2024. The stock has broken through key levels and managed to hold within the resistance zone between $80 and $90. We will most likely enter a sideways movement until the situation regarding tariffs becomes clearer. This could extend into June, after which we might expect an upward move toward the $132.95 zone. By early 2026, we are likely to see a new all-time high, especially if the trade tensions and tariffs between China and the US are resolved and overall uncertainty decreases.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by larsnicog
Temu's Price Magic: Shattered by Tariffs?PDD Holdings, the parent entity behind the popular e-commerce platform Temu, confronts a severe operational challenge following the recent imposition of stringent US tariffs targeting Chinese goods. These trade measures, particularly the dismantling of the "de minimis" rule for Chinese shipments, directly threaten the ultra-low-cost business model that fueled Temu's rapid expansion in the US market. The elimination of the previous $800 duty-free threshold for individual packages strikes at the core of Temu's logistical and pricing strategy. The impact stems from newly enacted, exceptionally high tariffs on these formerly exempt low-value parcels. Reports indicate rates escalating to 90% of the item's value or a significant flat fee, effectively nullifying the cost advantages Temu leveraged by shipping directly from manufacturers in China. This fundamental shift disrupts the financial viability of Temu's model, which relied heavily on tariff-free access to deliver goods at minimal prices to American consumers. Consequently, significant price increases for products sold on Temu appear almost inevitable as PDD Holdings grapples with these substantial new costs. While the company's official response is pending, economic pressures suggest consumers will likely absorb these charges, potentially eroding Temu's primary competitive advantage and slowing its growth momentum. PDD Holdings now faces the critical task of navigating this disrupted trade landscape and adapting its strategy to maintain its market position amidst heightened protectionism and geopolitical tension.
NASDAQ:PDDShort
by UDIS_View
EURGBP Discretionary Analysis: Eyes on the SupplyIt's that feeling when you just know the tide's about to turn (like when you're waiting for the wind to pass but can already smell the rain). EURGBP is giving off that "Next stop? Supply zone" kind of vibe. I see it pushing up to test that level, like it's gearing up for a showdown. If I'm right, I'll be eyeing some clean entries to make a move. If I'm wrong, I'll just grab a coffee and wait for the next opportunity to roll in. Just my opinion, not financial advice.
Long
by davidavasalcai
29
So here’s what I’m doing: Not Panicking.This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research. Listen, the US has survived the depression of WWI, the Great Depression, the depression of WWII, oil shocks, the dot com bubble, the GFC, the COVID-sell off. It’ll likely survive this. In the scope of history, that $1 survived very well indeed. Panicking and running for the hills does not do so well. Winston Churchill was a great and flawed man but a terrible investor; he bought and sold shares prior to the 1929 crash in such speculative investments as mining companies, railways, and so on — most of them lost money (hence why Churchill continued to write at such a pace — to fund his Champagne-and-spec stock lifestyle). Hetty Green, on the other hand, (known as the “Queen of Wall Street”, managed to do very well her time — her quote? I buy when things are low and no one wants them. I keep them until they go up, and people are crazy to get them. Now, that’s something I can get behind. Nobody wanted Meta a few years ago. I wrote an internal memo, close to its plummet in ‘22 (it got to $99 or so a share!). I wrote this: ii) Yet what if we were to tell about about a company with this set of heuristics? Let’s call it “Company A” Company A has a 31% return on equity and a 20% return on capital. It has a net income margin of 37% and a FCF margin of 21% Its income has a compounded annual growth rate over the last 5 years of 41% If we add in numbers, now, let’s say the net income for 2020 was $29 billion, and $10 billion of that was used to repurchase stock from shareholders? Let’s say the unlevered FCF is around $6 billion per quarter, and let’s say the debt to equity ratio is about 9x. In other words, Company A is grows at a quick clip, and has done sustainably for the majority of its life. Its return on capital and return on equity would make any investor happy. Its FCF is an absolute machine. Would you buy Company A? Company A was Meta . You would’ve roughly made 4x or 5x’d your money if you’d bought around then. The point is, the fundamentals of a business matter, and right now there a quite a few exceptional businesses with good fundamentals trading at a good price. Alphabet (Google) trades at ~16x earnings. LVMH trades at ~18x earnings. And so on. Brown-Forman trades at ~15x earnings. These are all “inevitables” — Google will continue to be a dominant advertising platform, LVMH will continue to sell luxury, and Brown-Forman will continue to sell Jack Daniel’s and so on. I talked to my ma in the weekend. She is not really a share person. Her portfolio is a bunch of “inevitables”. It’s done very well. She said “aren’t you worried about this stock market?”, and I said “You love supermarket shopping, Mum. If you see something at a 25% discount you buy it. You come home, and you’re delighted that you found some mince on special²” She was like, “oh, that makes sense”. The problem is you have a lot of people looking at charts and catching worry that the world will end. The world, I am delighted to say, has a magnificent disposition to carry on.
SP:SPX
by BlackBull_Markets
2
United Postal Service | UPS | Long at $92.00The United Postal Service NYSE:UPS finally closed out the last remaining price gap on the daily chart (since 2020) and entered my "crash" simple moving average zone. With a P/E of 15x, earnings forecast growth of 8.12% per year, and a dividend over 6%, NYSE:UPS "may" be a good buy and hold through these tumultuous economic/trade war times. I wouldn't place a continued price drop near $75-$85 out of the question, but I'm not in the game of calling bottoms. At $92.00, NYSE:UPS is in a personal buy zone. Word of caution: if this stock really tanks due to trade issues and massive recession, $50s... Targets: $108.00 $120.00 $133.00
NYSE:UPSLong
by WorthlessViews
1
New Zealand's central bank expected to lower rates by a quarter-The New Zealand dollar has rebounded on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5615, up 1.3% on the day. This follows a 5% plunge over the past two days. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to lower interest rates by a quarter-point at its rate meeting on Wednesday. The markets have priced in a quarter-point cut at 75% and a jumbo half-point cut at 25%. The RBNZ slashed rates by a half-point in February, a response to weak economic growth and an inflation rate of around 2%, the midpoint of its target band. The market meltdown and escalation in trade tensions due to new US tariffs could force the RBNZ to lower rates faster and deeper than previously expected. There is massive uncertainty in the air and the central bank will have to re-evaluate inflation and growth expectations, given the tariff turmoil. There is growing talk of a global recession, which would badly hurt New Zealand's export-reliant economy. China is New Zealand's largest trade partner and the escalating trade tensions between the US and China could turn into a New Zealand nightmare. China has imposed 34% reciprocal tariffs on the US, drawing a threat from President Trump that he will counter with a 50% tariff if the Chinese tariff is not removed. The RBNZ is dealing with the tariff crisis without Governor Adrian Orr, who suddenly resigned last month in the middle of his five-year term. The government has appointed Christian Hawkesby as Governor for a six-month term, after serving as the acting governor after Orr resigned.
by OANDA
GOLD H2 Outlook: Correction in progress 2900 USD in sight🏆 Gold Market Update (April 8th, 2025) 📊 Technical Outlook Update ▪️5 wave impulse completed ▪️Correction as expected previously ▪️currently trading at 3 000 usd ▪️Profit taking in progress now ▪️Price Target BEARS 2850/2900 USD ▪️Strategy: SHORT SELL rips/rallies ▪️target is 2900 USD 📢 Gold Market Update – April 2025 📈 Gold hits all-time high above $3,100/oz 🚀 Surge driven by Trump’s new global tariffs and rising trade war fears 🌍 Investors seek safety amid geopolitical uncertainty 📉 Pullback follows rally 💸 Sharp drop due to profit-taking and risk sentiment rebound 🔁 Analysts remain bullish as Fed rate cuts and tensions linger 🏦 Central banks keep buying 🛡️ China & others increasing gold reserves to hedge inflation & currency risks
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ProjectSyndicate
24
Canadian dollar slides as Canada's job growth declinesThe Canadian dollar has stabilized on Monday after declining close to 1% on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4225, up 0.23% on the day. It has been a roller-coaster for the Canadian dollar, which jumped 1.1% on Thursday but gave up almost all of the gains a day later. Canada's economy shed 32.6 thousand jobs in March, the biggest decline since August 2022. This was a sharp reversal from the 1.1 thousand gain in February and much lower than the market estimate of 12 thousand. The unemployment rate rose to 6.7% from 6.6% and the participation rate ticked lower to 65.2% from 65.3%. The employment data points to weakness in the labor market and the economic chill from the latest US tariffs could lead to further deterioration of the employment landscape. Businesses are holding back on investment and hiring due to the economic uncertainty and the plunge in oil prices will hurt the economy, as Canada is a major oil producer. US nonfarm payrolls surprised on the upside with a gain of 228 thousand, up from a revised 117 thousand in February and above the market estimate of 135 thousand. This was the strongest nonfarm payroll reading in three months. The positive employment report was overshadowed by the latest round of US tariffs which have sent the financial markets tumbling lower. There are increasing fears that the US tariffs and expected counter-tariffs could upend the US economy and tip it into a recession. Investors are hoping that the Trump administration will reduce the tariffs or at least announce negotiations will take place with targeted countries. So far, however, Trump has sounded defiant and said that the tariffs will stay in place.
by OANDA
VIX Clips 60 as Market Volatility and Tariff UncertaintyThe VIX Clips 60 as Market Volatility and Uncertainty Surge on Tariff Announcement The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often dubbed the “fear gauge,” surged past the 60 threshold this week—the highest level since August 5, 2023—as markets reacted violently to an unexpected announcement by the U.S. President regarding global tariffs. The sharp rise in the VIX, which measures market expectations of 30-day volatility, underscores the profound uncertainty now gripping investors, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting over 1,000 points and the S&P 500 entering correction territory. The trigger? A sweeping tariff policy unveiled by the administration on Liberation Day, a symbolic holiday marking a shift in economic strategy, which has sent shockwaves through global markets. The VIX at 60: A Sign of Extreme Fear The VIX typically hovers around 15-20 under normal conditions, reflecting moderate uncertainty. However, readings above 30 indicate heightened anxiety, and levels above 50 are rare, historically occurring during major crises like the 2008 financial collapse or the 2020 pandemic sell-off. This week’s spike to 60 marks a dramatic escalation, signaling a market gripped by fear. Analysts attribute this to the suddenness and scale of the President’s tariff announcement, which caught investors off guard after a period of relative calm. The Liberation Day Tariff Announcement On Liberation Day—a holiday commemorating historical freedoms—the administration announced a 25% tariff on a broad range of imports from key trading partners, including China, the EU, and others, effective immediately. The move, framed as a “national economic security initiative,” aims to curb perceived trade imbalances and protect domestic industries. However, its immediate impact has been severe: Scope and Speed: The tariffs apply to $500 billion in goods, targeting sectors like semiconductors, automotive parts, and consumer electronics. The abrupt implementation, with no prior warning or negotiation, has left businesses scrambling to adjust supply chains. Political Context: The announcement coincided with domestic political tensions, including debates over inflation and job creation. The White House argued the tariffs would “level the playing field” for American workers, but critics warned of retaliation and inflationary pressures. Market Chaos: Sectors Under Siege The tariff shockwave rippled across asset classes: Equities: The S&P 500 fell 2+% on Monday, its worst single-day drop since March 2020. The Nasdaq, heavily weighted in tech stocks reliant on global supply chains, plunged over 5%. Sectors: Semiconductor firms like Intel and AMD tanked, while automakers such as Ford and Tesla declined sharply. Expert Analysis: A Volatility Tipping Point Historical Parallels and Economic Risks The current volatility mirrors past crises: 2008 Financial Crisis: The VIX hit 80 as Lehman Brothers collapsed, but the current crisis stems from policy, not financial contagion. 2020 Pandemic Sell-Off: The VIX spiked to 82 as lockdowns paralyzed economies, but today’s uncertainty is self-inflicted. However, the tariff-driven uncertainty poses unique risks: Inflation: Higher import costs could push inflation back above 4%, complicating the Fed’s rate-cut path. Global Growth: The World Bank warns that trade wars could shave 2% off global GDP by 2025. Emerging markets, reliant on exports, face currency crises. Looking Ahead: Can Calm Return? Markets may stabilize if the administration signals flexibility. Potential pathways include: Negotiations: A G20 summit in September offers a venue for de-escalation, though diplomatic progress is uncertain. Policy Reversal: If tariffs are delayed or narrowed, the VIX could retreat. However, the President’s rhetoric suggests a hardline stance. Corporate Adaptation: Companies might pivot to domestic suppliers, but such shifts take years, prolonging volatility. Conclusion: A New Era of Uncertainty The VIX at 60 marks a pivotal moment. Markets are now pricing in not just the immediate tariff impact but a broader shift toward protectionism and policy-driven instability. For investors, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. While short-term volatility may ebb with reassurances, the long-term consequences—trade wars, inflation, and geopolitical friction—could redefine global economics for years. With Liberation Day’s tariffs reshaping the landscape, one thing is clear: the era of low volatility is over. The question now is whether policymakers can navigate this new turbulence—or if markets will remain hostages to fear.
TVC:VIX
by bryandowningqln