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Tariffs

15 December, the US will implement tariffs on $156B on ChinaTo offset the additional tariffs the CNY would have to depreciate - although the Chinese authorities have said that they won't pursue quantitative easing. If there is a formal announcement to suspend or delay the tariffs, the market would expect a more positive risk reaction and that is currently being priced in. WIth the USDCNY trading around the 6.90 and below the 7.00 psychological level that was key back in the summer. If Phase one of the deal does not pass and the tariffs go-ahead, we would expect the USDCNY to trade above the 7.100
by ForexVox
Playing Mattel's momentum?Technical MAT broke and sustained its 200sma resistance a couple of days ago. Todays candle above the trend (pink trend line) are confirmation MAT longer downtrend might be over. Fundamental / News December 15th tariffs were removed, easing pressures for them. However, 25% tariffs will remain on $250 billion Chinese imports and 7.5% will be put on much of the remainder. Mattel (MAT) said Monday, December 9th, that it plans to offer $600 million aggregate principal amount of senior notes due 2027 to institutional buyers, subject to market conditions and other factors.
NASDAQ:MATLong
by dorfmanmaster
Why I reallocated most of my tech and retail to pharma and cashToday the market surged higher despite the worst jobless claims data since September 2017 and also despite reports that Trump has no intention of delaying the December 15 tariff deadline. Investors apparently are betting that an eleventh-hour deal will get made before Sunday, but personally I'm not willing to gamble on that. If the US does impose $150 billion of new tariffs on consumer goods from China, retail companies and tech companies will be disproportionately affected. I shuffled some of my tech and retail shares into weed stock Aurora Cannabis and pharmaceutical companies Amyris and Lannett this morning after seeing some positive headlines about those companies. I also bought small positions in a gold miners fund and an inverse oil fund just for funsies. Those should both gain if no trade deal materializes. Most of my money is now in cash, however, and I will choose a re-entry once I know what's going on with tariffs. I will definitely miss some profit if a deal gets made, but that's okay. I take safer bets; I don't play Trump roulette.
SP:SPX
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
6
Potential Bull Flag in General Electric as Industrials ClimbIndustrial stocks have come to life since early October as investors look for the economy to recover from the U.S. – China trade war. Now one of the biggest and most liquid names in the entire sector is rebounding from a pullback, and a classic bull-flag continuation pattern may be taking shape. General Electric reported a potentially transformative quarter on October 30. Strong free cash flow dispelled worries about its balance sheet -- similar to the story in Tesla . In both cases, big obstacles that once kept some investors on the sidelines could be going away. GE gapped higher after that report and then pulled back. It found support at the same $10.70 - $10.80 area that was resistance in June and July. It's climbing again today following an upgrade by UBS, which raised it price target to $14. It is a strong news-driven move with the potential for brief consolidation, so traders may find some opportunities closer to $11.20. Energy is another potential catalyst because GE owns about one-third of oil-field servicing company Baker Hughes . This has also been one of the stronger niches in the market over the last week, and also stands to benefit from trade optimism potentially lifting crude.
NYSE:GELong
by TradeStation
US could impose 100% tariffs on French goods after Google taxWhat was President Macron thinking about designing a tax for tech companies... A quick reminder, it will be separated in two categories — marketplace (Amazon’s marketplace, Uber, Airbnb…) and advertising (Facebook, Google, Criteo…). Despite the fact it wasnt planned specifically for American companies, the vast majority of big tech companies that operate in France are American. Thus, a company that generates more than €750 million in global revenue and €25 million in France, will have to pay 3% of the French revenue in taxes. As expected, the U.S. Trade Representative claimed that“France’s Digital Services Tax (DST) discriminates against U.S. companies, is inconsistent with prevailing principles of international tax policy, and is unusually burdensome for affected U.S. companies.” And, as a result, now we might see tariffs that could be as high as 100% on French goods (wine, cheese, handbags…). What is going to happen now? Frnce will say that the response will be equally damaging, but i personally doubt they manage to impose significant tariffs unless the whole European Union agrees to cooperate and istart acting. However, even in this case no one can guarantee that th EU will achieve something worthwhile... So, with a high probability we will see another decrease in the Cac-40.
NASDAQ:CACShort
by Market_Referee
ORBEX: Weekend Trade News Likely to Affect SPX, DXY!In today’s marketinsights video recording, I talk about SPX and DXY . SPX takes a breather from all-time highs offering some pocket-relief to short-term bulls, however, with weekend trade headline news the rally could continue higher. The US index looks bid too despite the medium-term bearishness as the economy performs incredibly well, supporting the dollar. From a technical perspective, there's more room to the upside for both. The index, however, will most likely have a harder trip moving higher as its upside is limited. Unless if of course a sharp bullish move occurs, taking out breakeven stops and then reversing rapidly to everyone's surprise. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Orbex
ORBEX: GBPUSD, AUDUSD: Trade And Brexit Deals Fall Short!In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPUSD and #AUDUSD Pound Lower on: - Highly complex proposal for a double customs system - Nothing substantial or "workable" submitted to EU Aussie Lower on: - Tradewar shift, again, as tariffs part of the limited deal - Phase one not documented, China needs confirmations Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
SPY Triple BottomPotential for a triple bottom on SPY. Depending on incoming news later tonight/tomorrow morning, I suspect a large move monday. Technicals would suggest that spy should be making a move upwards towards 293. If 293 rejects, then down we go again. If it breaks and retests as support, then we may make new highs. However, with the fear in the market, it is hard to say that's going to happen....except, "be greedy when others are fearful?"... Currently in a long straddle.
AMEX:SPY
by Eurocrem
Delayed tariffs "for Christmas" might help HASBRO News/fundamental The USTR says that the tariffs on some items, including “certain toys,” will be delayed until Dec. 15. September is a key shipping month for those companies as they prepare for the holiday shopping season, when the majority of the industry’s business occurs. Hasbro told CNBC earlier this month that it would have “no choice but to pass along the increased costs to our U.S. customers” if the tariffs were put into place. -- Great risk reward ratio.
NASDAQ:MATLong
by dorfmanmaster
3
TRADERSAI - A.I. Powered Model Trades for Today, MON 08/12Bears Getting Emboldened? The apparently mis-managed, mid-judged, and mis-publicized trade war appears to begin to take its toll on the confidence of businesses and investors - not only on the confidence, but could very well be on their bottomlines. And, this could be emboldening the bears to slowly emerge from their hiding. Nevertheless, if you are itching to go short this market you need to tread carefully - there is still scope for stoking (baseless) hope and exuberance in the markets around the trade war agreement/developments (mass memory is said to be very short and politicians know this very well) - so, account for "short squeeze" spikes up when going short. Keep enough powder dry and do not jump all in. Our medium term models have not formed any near term directional bias, yet, and are in an indeterminate state, waiting for further analyses of today's (Monday's) daily close. In the mean time, read below for our models' trading plans for the day. tradersai.com #ES #ESMINI #SP500 #SPX #SPY #Fed #China #Yuan #Yields #Rates #Tariffs #Tradewar
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
$EEM - Emerging Markets Under PressureAs volatility has come back to the global markets with a vengeance, one headwind that continues to blow even stronger continues to be the US-China trade war. On August 2nd, the US unexpectedly imposed additional tariffs on Chinese goods, with the Chinese now threatening to retaliate in kind. As a result of this renewed volatility, Emerging Market stocks ($EEM) have been rattled heavily over the past few trading sessions. On a technical basis, $EEM prices are below all three of its EMAs, with a death crosses forming on i) the 10-Day and 50 & 200-Day EMAs, and ii) the 50-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA, something that has not been seen since May. Further, its RSI continues to fall, indicating that momentum is quickly increasing to the downside as global investors lose faith in Emerging Markets. Lastly, $EEM prices seem to to be in a downward trend since July 25th, with the EEM/SPY price ratio continuing its march lower, as global investors (continue to) invest in the US over Emerging Markets. Given the increase in rhetoric between the two economic giants, Emerging Market stocks are currently under heavy bearish pressure, with no end in sight. If these pressures continue on the space, we see $EEM heading lower to $38.45 as its next stop.
AMEX:EEMShort
by EconomicsGlobal
$SPY - S&P 500 Bull Flag Forming?The S&P 500 was hit hard this week after macro headwinds such as the less than dovish Fed meeting, and more China tariffs, the $SPY has taken a beating over the last few trading days. However, despite this short-term rough path, it appears that a "Bull Flag" ("Flag") seems to be forming at the moment. If prices can bounce off the bottom of the Flag at $288, move higher, and breach $302,the rally would continue. If it fails to do so, more selling could be right around the corner. Investors should watch this space.
AMEX:SPYLong
by EconomicsGlobal
4
QQQ -Nasdaq Bull Flag forming?After a volatile week, $QQQ has been hit by some short-term selling pressure. This in turn, has made its technical patterns look quite bearish at the moment. However contrary to this, it may appear that a "Bullish Flag" pattern may be forming. If the price can bounce of the bottom of the channel pattern ("Flag") at $186.31, move higher and breach the top of the Flag at $192.89, we could see prices move higher. If it fails to do so however, we could see more selling. Watch this space over the next few trading sessions.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by EconomicsGlobal
GOLD-(XAU): Fundamentals and Technicals Support This Next RUN Fundamental Analysis: It was always made clear to me that Gold is the "Safe haven" where money is shifted to in times of uncertainty and fear. Gold is also commonly bought to be used as a hedge. Take the tariff war that is currently going on between World Leaders, the increased tariff rates seem to have no limit. In return, the inflation to the US Dollar will have many people with their sights on Gold. A few examples of recent gold bull trends during down markets would be in 2002-2007 when the dollar fell drastically (40% against the euro). Gold also ran 240% in 2008 when the bank treasuries credit giveaways were discovered where gold found itself surging to $1,895 in 2011. Technical Analysis: The Markets were hit hard last week and during this time we saw Gold make a strong move to the upside, breaking out of its 3 month falling wedge to finish the corrective Wave 2/5. As we begin our impulsive wave 3 up, my fib measurement on this completion is sitting around 1450, where I believe we will be rejected for a corrective wave. I would like keep a close eye on the volume to see if it will pick up, However I see clear skies concerning the Volume Profile (VPVR).
FX:XAUUSDLong
by wolf_rojo
Trade-war relief - July 2019Trump and Xi Ping have come to a tariff truce at G-20 this weekend. Trump is now using Huawei (previously blacklisted, banned, etc.) as a bargaining chip, allowing TEMPORARILY, U.S. companies to continue doing business with China's Huawei. Here is a list of Top 20 U.S. based Huawei suppliers . I believe most of them will rally this month (July 2019). - Percentage number next to stock symbol is the revenue exposure to Huawei Intel (INTC) - 1% Advanced Micro Device (AMD) - 2% Broadcom (AVGO) - 6% Qualcomm (QCOM) - 5% Microsoft (MSFT) Nvidia (NVDA) CommScope (COMM) - 2% Texas Instruments (TXN) Seagate Technology (STX) - 4% Micron Technology (MU) - 2% Qorvo (QRVO) - 11% Flex (FLEX) - 5% Skyworks (SWKS) - 6% Corning (GLW) - 2% Analog Devices (ADI) - 3% NeoPhotonics (NPTN) - 47% Western Digital (WDC) Lumentum (LITE) - 11% II-VI (IIVI) - 8% Finisar (FNSR) - 8% Maxim Integrated (MXIM) - 4% Keysight Technology (KEYS) - 2% Marvell Technology (MRVL) - 1% Note: Trump can go back on the Huawei deal at any time.
NASDAQ:SOXXLong
by dorfmanmaster
1