SPX: Updated daily view$SPX is trending up clearly, and is ready to go even higher before starting a retracement or consolidation period for a few weeks, probably after earnings are out for all companies.
I'm long a few select individual stocks, following my main investing themes for this year, and not holding direct exposure to passive funds or index or sector ETFs personally. Refer to related ideas for my long term forecast and other ideas for $SPY/$SPX.
Sentiment has been negative throughout this whole rally, peaking right before and after the elections results came out in November 2016. It has been a very interesting year, and things will continue to be exciting from a trading perspective. As an investor, I'm interested in riding big emerging trends in unloved stocks, and trying to stay away from high valuations in tech overall. I have a sizeable gold position, 25% of my net worth since it was at $1220, but I'm not a declared bear like most people in gold -who have been either losing, or missing out on the stocks, AND crypto rally since 2009-. I think it's good to keep a clear head, and be open to new data to adjust your views.
Technicals show we can rally significantly in the short term, and get a consolidation later on, so be ready to hedge once more by then. I'll update this chart when the time comes.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
TAX
Xau/Usd $$$ Gold - short term setupNote$
-I was hesitant to short gold mostly because of tensions with North Korea, however IMO any military escalation from now on is unlikely. Market got used to North Korea shooting wanna-be-ICBMs and missiles every now and then.
-I expect gold to be losing value til next friday
-US inflation data next friday might push Gold up a bit (as per labor report I expect weaker inflation), however I think it will hit top of current downtrend channel followed by further decline
-Any new info regarding Trumps tax reform might confluence or diverge with this setup
USDJPY Yen Slide Continues as Markets Eye Trump Tax AnnouncemThe Bank of Japan is expected to hold the course and maintain interest rates at -0.10%. The negative rates are part of the BoJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy, which is expected to continue until inflation levels move closer to the central bank’s target of around 2 percent. Japan’s economy has improved in recent months, as a weak yen and stronger global demand have boosted exports and revitalized the manufacturing sector. At the same time, consumer inflation and spending data remains weak, which has weighed on the economy. Household Spending and Tokyo Core CPI, which are key consumer indicators, are both expected to post declines. If these readings are softer than expected, the dollar’s rally against the yen could continue.
TAX- 7% Return in Stock trading only in 1 Day !!- Here’s another Quick Trade from Our Trading Room Executive summaries -
As discussed in Executive summaries we bought TAX at 7.13 in 5/31/16, it was looking an up-ward momentum trade as it crossed up EMA5 & SAM20. Our first target was at 11.73, around 23% Fib Retracement Level. With our surprise Stock moved to our first target the next day giving us a chance to lock a 7% profit.
Trade Details –
TAX- Long
Trade Logic: Momentum pattern, Long channel breakdown adjustment to Fib Retracement level 23% & further to 38%
Entry price: 11.13
Target Price: 11:93, second target 13.73
Stop-Loss: 10.67
You can check our detailed analysis on TAX in the trading room link here-
Trade Suggestion Date: 5/31/2016
Trading Room - Executive summery link: www.youtube.com
Time Span: 5.25”
Trade Open: 5/31/2016
Trade Close: 6/1/2016
Profit/Loss: 7% return in Stock trading in only 1 Day !!!
Sell Facebook before the news is out I'm short $FB with $89 puts that expire in few weeks, $87.5 puts that expire in August and whole assortment of other FB puts. IMO this is like trading with inside information, the news is available, but hidden well in Facebooks last 10K filing in January 2015. FB says " We are being examined by the IRS" in that filing. They also say "We are unable to estimate the full range of possible adjustments" At issue is a tax loss carryforward tax credits that FB has taken but not eligible for. Evidently the IRS code says that a tax loss carry forward cannot be transferred if ownership of a corporation changes by over 50%. That happened to Facebook when it went public. So far FB has taken tax credits on $3 Billion of a $7 Billion tax loss carryforward which will be denied by the IRS. FB profits will turn into losses when FB has to restate earnings. You can find this information hidden in Notes to Financial Statements in the Income Tax section of the 10K. Technically FB indicates a sell by the Stochastic indicator and other indicators on a daily chart. The fundamental news outweighs all the technical indicators imo. Sell Facebook ASAP. Stop loss at $89.50