Taxes
Simple Bitcoin Ultimate Forecast into 2020Capitulation is basically when Miners stop mining and sell some of their bitcoins to keep operations going.
However Capitulation is more likely to occur at the end of every annual year now due to regulation and taxes.
It is easier to calculate loss/profit by shutting or slowing the network down and washing your hands so to speak.
Power consumption costs are higher during the winter time as well.
So with that said the ultimate guide and advice I am giving myself is to play it short, wait for capitulation cycle to open and and buy all in as the capitulation cycle is closing.
This chart is an emulation scenario of the next "possible" 50% drop
***I am not a FINRA registered agent or broker (As of Yet) and this is not financial advice, Please always do your own research, As Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset.***
The CAD Has Fallen Out of FavorThe CAD has experienced a long bullish run and it is approaching a known supply area. There is some weary news coming up for Canada in the near future ( I think we all know what that is). In combination with that, Canada has a minority government when fiscal policy intervention is heavily needed. The CHF has been struggling, but I think this isn't due to medium to long term problems and we will see the safe haven shine again in the short-term. Let's see if my analysis is correct as we are already seeing the heavy short volume on the daily timeframe. As always, trade at your own risk.
Cryptocurrency and U.S. TaxesThe Internal Revenue Service has stated that in years past they have received several hundreds of cryptocurrency filings per annum. They have also stated their intent to implement a crackdown on tax evasion via crypto , as well as having published a PDF made available on the Coinbase Pro site , stating that digital currency amounts to property , and as such every trade , exchange , transfer etc. is a taxable event.
In 2018 I suffered by far more losses than gains as f.o.m.o. gave rise to fear and dread , and I made approximately 700 plus trades trying to backpedal my way through this bear market. As the regulators became more vocal , I began to fear that it would cost thousands to report that I had lost a similar amount.
Then I stumbled upon Cointracking.info . Cointracking.info has been around for a while , and they offer a comparatively inexpensive service allowing for API importation (with carefully selected permissions of course,) which to me was vital because whether or not one wants to admit it, I did buy my first coin at Coinbase , and Coinbase .csv files are wildly inaccurate, incomplete , and do not mix well with information from better exchanges. Currently , a coinbase .csv file lists every sale or purchase as a deposit or withdrawal. I am sure you can imagine how difficult that would make it to calculate capital gains/losses when they reduce your cost basis to zero.
Cointracking.info offers a free account , and two paid accounts. Of the paid accounts , one covers a year (buy in February) and the other a lifetime. Because of the difficulty with coinbase .csv files, and .csv files in general I was permitted a 2 week trial of "PRO," which allows for API import and all of a sudden everything added up and was accurate. The site offers many different services , from trade analysis to balance by currency , exchange , averaging ; but most importantly is up to date on the tax laws of most countries. They offer form Form 8949 as well as a table style report and a very detailed report of EVERY single trade. They also offer FIFO,FILO,LIFO etc. , unsold assets as cost basis, all assets as cost basis , all currencies or only digital currencies , whether or not to include deposits and withdrawals , and whether or not to group trades by day (which can help if one has used multiple exchanges in different time zones, as well as reducing total trade amounts ;and warn you of inaccuracies. One can also choose between average prices or exchange specific prices in account settings.
I have been paid NOTHING and write this article because I believe there are "services" out there that may not be honest, or perhaps wildly overpriced , and because I like what i see. Most importantly- I can sleep at night again.
Caveat Emptor
Coinbase and taxesThe I.R.S. has been rather clear about their intentions to collect taxes on cryptocurrencies , yet vague about in what fashion to do so. Many in the crypto community bought some of their first coins on coinbase basic, despite their exorbitant fee's and wild point spreads , and coinbase as well as coinbase pro (gdax.com) , being U.S. based companies have been subject to IRS demands for information as early as 2016. Coinbase successfully defended the privacy of some users at that time, but the I.R.S. isn't going to stop there and we all know it. Coinbase' shamefully expensive base site and their step up platform have both led the way in informing users of their tax responsibilities , yet cannot as of this time generate workable .csv outputs.
Opened in Excel , there are missing timestamps - imported into tax software , sales show up as withdrawals ; in the end the information they provide is not only inaccurate and incompatible with everything that I have tried , it generates negative coin balances , usd balances , unfulfilled withdrawals - transfers , resulting in the cost basis of the incoming exchange currency being 0 dollars. Imagine the taxes on that.
The community needs to DEMAND better from coinbase. If your account still exists it is time to write support tickets, if it doesn't , they hopefully have your history or the cost basis for transferred currency to a new exchange is 0. Example :You bought in this year , early , buying a Bitcoin in March for 8800 USD. You didnt sell it , but transferred it to a different exchange , and used some of it to buy another currency. That is a sale with a cost basis of 0 , meaning it's all profit even at it's current , low price. What would have been a deduction is now an additional , potentially very significant expense. Or perhaps you bought in early , and later transferred your BTC to Binance, where you sold 30 BTC for 18k each. Your original cost basis according to coinbase generated reports is 0. Not 100, or 500 , or 4k , but 0. It's like a gift subject to capital gains.
The IRS doesn't like inconsistencies , and coinbase even has links to the latest , vague IRS doc on CC's , but still provides b.s. info.
Perhaps coinbase should be made aware not only of this , but the possible consequences of THEIR failure to comply.
On a side note, what is with BCHSV? Is it sharkpool? Is there still a war against crypto being mined properly??
How could someone support that? This is about CHOICE , something that camp wants to eliminate.
The Asian session and every other day effectRecently , it can be said with no doubt that crypto and it's current bear winter have been unkind to Asia , specifically China - where mining companies are going bankrupt, where ASIC'S that were high end not all that long ago are being sold for scrap. Thusly, many miners and owners of mining pools HAVE NO CHOICE but to sell their BTC , likely other MINED currencies , and who can blame them.
The problem comes in there and in the American sessio , where people perhaps are just not seeing the correlation and taking the time to either buy or at least not succumb to panic selling.
Not ALL CRYPTOS ARE MINED. This is an important distinction , and yet the market continues to look to Bitcoin for price direction. In the past 48 , BTC rallied out of proportion to prominent coins that dont require mining. The coupling effect?? Price manipulation to keep mining in business?? Institutional buy in?? The latter seems unlikely as that would result in a sustained rally, and Bitcoin , while in the green , is teetering. Other coins didn't fare too well.
Something else seems to happen during a wavering market - everyday at some point the TRADEVIEW daily range resets , and more often than not , price movement has changed direction every other day in a wavering market. Can people not see this, or is it some psychological cue to sell that bypasses reason?
Finally Coinbase. Coinbase has been leading the pay your taxes charge , yet cannot on it's base platform (many of us bought our first coins there , so please dont judge ) differentiate a sell from a withdrawal. This has made software testing difficult. Does anyone know if API access helps clear things up? Correlate ACTUAL withdrawals with deposits on other exchanges?? Please comment below if you know or can point me in the right direction. I entered the game late , took losses , and I need a practical way to correlate this data.
Caveat Emptor.
Bitcoin 2018 Spring Roadmap, IRS/Tax April Cashout Theory [BTFD]Greetings once again BTFD members, lurkers and first timers!
Weclome to the greatest show on Earth right now!!!!
Its been a really fun and exciting path towards finding the TRUE value of Bitcoin since the rather over-inflated peaks of December and January
So what is the true value of bitcoin? its different for every person to be frank and thats why its having such a hard time finding its floor and is performing exactly how it should considering the tech and what it does and can be used for
my main theory which has also been confirmed now by a few other btc charters such as goldbug,
the US Tax/IRS stuff concludes on April 15th or so i am to believe, meaning people who bought and sold BTC last tax year now will have pretty large taxes to pay off, many people probably didnt know or realise this until too late and hence why there has been such a huge sell offs every week about $5-20bn has been going OUT of the market and not coming back in nearly as much, the Mcap clearly show this
So im charting that after 15th April we might see some trickles of life coming in to back bitcoin back up to some even stupider levels than the last all time high
BUT.....
until the 15th im totally bearish and by looks of things we are going to see a sub $4k bitcoin after all.
i expect the sell-off to be quite short and the rebuy very fast as i have been saying since last year this would play out around these levels
so you can use my chart as a guide for rest of the spring/summer and see if my theory is right, be nice if it is, cause im leveraging every part of it this year!
WHEN MOON? WHEN PARABOLIC?
End goals if the Gann fans hold then im seeing a nice cross around $12.5k for a first target and then back onto test ATH's after a small correction/pullback
Will be a Golden cross formed if the buying after sub$4k is steady and fast
Expect bounces on fib levels and we will go much more into detail via the telegram and our new discord playroom (PM me for details)
JOIN US ON THE LINKS BELOW for 24/7 FREE Bitcoin and crypto coin analysis and ZERO pump and dump spam :)
RSI showing overbought. One last big dip coming!Daily RSI is showing overbought, which was expected. I'm in the opinion that we might see a short dip back down to 6500-6000 as some investors may take profits off of this little pump to pay their taxes. But after this dip, and after the 17th, I expect the money to come pouring in. Especially with the big boys in the market now that the OTC buys aren't available, causing them to have to go to the exchanges to buy in bulk.
consolidated GBP = easy money (till tuesday)+info about ScotlandWe've arrived at heavy demand area. Pair should reman consolidated until we encounter a solid reason to break through this level or bounce up. Seems like situation will be simillar to the one when we were at this price level previuosly /yellow square @ Feb 2014/, yet the outcome might be opposite. I'd suggest playing it safe&technical now = from support to resistance and from resistance to support. Tuesday will be the day when some bigger move might appear.
This red, long vertical line is placed here to show the date of Scotland's independece referendum. Outcome of this referendum might be heavily injuring for UK. Wondering now wherther or not Scotland's independece is already priced in and what will happen if result shows that they will actually stay with UK.
What the price suggests is that, their independecte is mostly priced in so the impulse could be long for both the YES or NO as a result of the voting. Why? Because YES would only add-up more reasons to sell and NO would be a signal that we've pushed it too low in advance, and would mean that UK economy is safe for now causing some (or most) of all these short positions to take profit and wait till situation clears out.
What will actually happen to UK if the result is YES?
Less income from taxes, less people to contribute to GDP and overall economic growth, less people to take credit from UK's banks and first attempts to build independent monetary circulation system that doesn't support UK (or at least attempts to). There obviously are more outcomes of this but i'm only trying to imagine the scale of it and wondering if there could be any positive outcomes of independent Scotland for UK.