Shorting LINK: Overbought Conditions, TBO, and Fibonacci LinesIn this trading idea, we will explore the potential shorting opportunity for LINK/USDT, driven by recent news-induced overbought conditions and strong over-extension from the TBO Fast Line. The confluence of factors, including resistance at previous TBO Resistance lines and the 0.236 Fibonacci level, presents a compelling trade setup.
Reasons we are looking to Short LINK/USDT:
1) Overbought Conditions:
Recent news and hype have driven LINK to an extremely overbought state. Such excessive buying activity may lead to a price correction, providing an attractive opportunity for short positions.
2) Over-Extended from TBO Fast Line:
The current green TBO Fast Line at 6.857 indicates LINK's significant deviation from its average price movement. Historically, such deviations tend to revert to the mean, potentially presenting a favorable shorting scenario.
3) Strong Resistance at Previous TBO Resistance Lines:
LINK's price surge encountered strong resistance at previous TBO Resistance lines. These levels have proven influential in the past and may act as formidable barriers for further price advancement.
4) Fibonacci Resistance:
The price of LINK has reached the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, which often serves as a significant resistance zone. Traders typically consider this level as a crucial point for potential reversals.
Shorting Strategy:
With a well-defined shorting strategy, we aim to secure approximately 15% profit while maintaining a 4:1 profit-to-loss ratio.
Trade Plan:
- Entry: Initiate the short position from the current price levels.
- Take Profit: Target a 15% profit from the entry point.
- Stop Loss: Set a stop loss just above the 0.236 Fibonacci level of 8.408
- Time Frame: We expect the trade to close within a week.
Risk Management:
As with any trade, risk management is paramount. By adhering to a predefined stop loss level, potential losses can be minimized in the event of an unexpected price surge.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the current overbought conditions, significant over-extension from the TBO Fast Line, strong resistance at previous TBO Resistance lines, and the 0.236 Fibonacci resistance level all point to a potential shorting opportunity for LINK/USDT. Implementing a well-structured shorting strategy and prudent risk management will enhance the likelihood of achieving the desired profit targets. As always, exercise caution and remain vigilant throughout the trade execution. Happy trading!
(Note: The trading plan and risk management mentioned above are for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.)
TBO
Analyzing Support and Resistance Levels using TBO Indicator for Introduction:
In this analysis, we will examine the support and resistance levels for the $APE/USD trading pair. Often, identifying these levels can be complex, but with the help of our proprietary indicator, TBO (Trending Breakout), we can obtain unbiased information regarding strong levels of support and resistance on the chart.
Understanding TBO and its Role:
The TBO indicator is a valuable tool that aids traders in determining significant support and resistance levels. By using this indicator, we can simplify the process of identifying these levels, making our analysis more efficient and reliable. TBO provides non-biased information, enabling us to make informed trading decisions.
Interpreting TBO Support Levels:
It's important to note that a long TBO Support Line indicates a strong level of support. However, it's crucial to understand that even a strong support level can be temporarily breached. Sometimes, market forces may cause support levels to be wicked into, resulting in stop losses being triggered and weak-handed traders exiting their positions. This temporary breach may be a deliberate move by market participants to create a false breakdown before the price bounces back successfully off the support level.
Profit Opportunities for Long-Term Traders/Holders:
During these moments of temporary breach and subsequent bounce-back, longer-term traders and holders can seize profitable opportunities. By recognizing the significance of strong support levels, traders can remain confident in their positions and take advantage of the price rebound. This approach allows them to benefit from the upward movement and potentially generate profits.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the TBO indicator plays a crucial role in simplifying the identification of support and resistance levels. By utilizing this tool, we can obtain unbiased information about strong levels of support or resistance on the $APE/USD chart. However, it's important to remember that even strong support levels can be temporarily breached, providing opportunities for longer-term traders and holders to profit from price rebounds. By combining the power of TBO with a strategic approach, traders can enhance their decision-making process and potentially improve their trading outcomes.
$XRP Bullish Pennant Breakout?Ripple CRYPTOCAP:XRP has been in the news again in regards to their ongoing court case with the SEC. Rumors of a positive verdict are circulating, which typically creates bullish sentiment for price action- but Ripple has been in this situation several times over this long litigation. So what does the chart say?
The white trend lines show a pennant formation on the daily time frame that has been in progress for over 2 months. One thing we teach our course takers is to pay attention to is how many attempts were made to break either trend line. With that in mind, the upper trend line has been touched many more times than the lower trend line, which could produce a bullish break out. But what does the TBO show?
The TBO stands for Trending Break-out, and is our favorite indicator for gauging the strength of a trend, as well as identifying when a break-out might happen next.
When we look at the TBO alone, we can clearly see that the trend is bullish since the lowest line, the TBO Slow Line, is angled up and moving up. TBO Resistance (the dotted green lines at the bottom of the chart) has moved up to 0.4157, which confirms that support has been moved higher- a bullish sign.
Things that make us concerned when we look at the TBO are the fact that the price of XRP is inside the TBO Cloud, similar to what the Ichimoku Cloud means in terms of confirming consolidation. While the TBO Fast Line is pink (confirming the previous TBO Open Short symbol on May 8th), which should be a bearish indication for the trend, the fact that XRP is currently above the TBO Fast Line is a good sign of a change from bearish sentiment to bullish sentiment.
The final thing we will leave you with are words of wisdom from long ago:
Buy the rumors and sell the news.
However, a break above this long-term white overhead trend line would be very big for XRP, allowing it to move up to 0.50 or higher very quickly.
Trade Analysis: $PEPEPEPE has had its short time in the spotlight after crashing 72% from its all-time high- which doesn't mean much for a coin that has only existed for a few weeks. But we're not going to get into the ethics of meme coins in this post, so we'll table that thought and let you wrestle with it. Our goal in this post is to help you understand how to use our "TBO" indicator to recognize where trends begin, signs of when it would be wise to take profits, glaring signs of bearish sentiment, and how to identify re-entry points.
#1: "TBO" Open Long (green triangle) signals a confirmation of an uptrend, measuring 1275% from Open Long to all-time high.
#2: on faster time frames (like the 4-hour), it's important to understand that faster doesn't equal stronger. In fact, it's the opposite when it comes to indicators. Longer time frames are stronger with indicators, but faster time frames give earlier warning signs and alerts.
With that said, when the price is stuck sideways, eventually a red line from the "TBO" will be printed, indicating "TBO" Resistance. These can be considered early take profit warnings/suggestions.
#3: whenever the price exits below the "TBO" Cloud, consider it strongly bearish. Usually these piercing events will be quick and fast, and bounce back into the "TBO" Cloud (as we see here on the chart.
#4: the red X is the "TBO" Cross Down symbol, forewarning that a bearish cross to the down side could be coming soon (which was accurately indicated).
#5: the pink triangle is the "TBO" Open Short, which confirms the bearish trend. Note that Open Longs and Open Shorts will typically be quite late to the trend. Their purpose isn't to give an early warning about a new trend, but to confirm the trend.
#6: lastly, for those who are risk-averse, we can use the green "TBO" Support line to identify future support and areas where the price might bounce. While the price did bounce about 12% off the "TBO" Support line, we have to remember that the 4-hour time frame is fast, and therefore weak.
We hope that this explanation of the "TBO" in action on PEPE will help some of you understand the power behind this seemingly simple indicator!
$LINK Trend Change In ProgressLINK has been in a compressed sideways range ever since June 2022- nearly 10 months. Many other top 10 and top 20 tokens have made significant returns after Bitcoin's victory bounce back in January, but LINK has been forced to stay below the 0.236 Fibonacci line (at $9.126).
But one thing our indicator, the "TBO", is telling us is that a trend change has been in the works since the week of January 23, 2023, indicated by the green X. "TBO" Cross Up symbols on longer time frames give us an advanced alert that the trend could be making a sudden shift in the next several candles. These shifts don't happen right away, but as you can see from the "TBO" Cross Down (red X) that happened back in October 2021, the price eventually turned bearish.
One other important detail to note about the "TBO" Crosses is that these symbols change the color of the "TBO" Cloud, introducing a gray color. This gray color is an indication that the trend is beginning to change directions.
Once the price of LINK closes above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, we expect the price to turn bullish and start hitting the higher Fib targets. Until that happens, we are mildly bullish on LINK.
*Note: the "TBO" is enclosed in quotations because an existing ticker (TBO) could lead to some confusion.
Gold on the Rise: TBO Breakout ClustersGold traders, take note! The "TBO Breakout Cluster" is making waves on the daily chart for Gold, and we're excited about its potential. Over the past 3 years, "TBO" Breakout Clusters have led to upward price explosions of 6% to 20%, with a 87% win rate.
But what exactly is a "TBO" Breakout Cluster? It's when three or more "TBO" Breakout symbols are printed in close proximity, indicating a potential trend reversal and bullish move. And that's exactly what we're seeing now for Gold.
But let's take one step back before we go any further. What is the "TBO"? The "TBO" is our proprietary indicator and stands for Trending Breakout Indicator- pretty fitting title, don't you think? The "TBO" shows us the strength of the trend, when trend reversals could be happening, and when breakouts (or breakdowns) could be happening on a chart. So with that explained, let's continue!
To confirm the bullish outlook, we need to check a few things. First, the price needs to be above the "TBO" Cloud, which it is. Second, all 4 lines of the "TBO" Cloud should be pointing up, and in this case, they are. Lastly, we need to see the "TBO" Breakout symbols printed in close proximity, or a cluster, and we just witnessed that happen.
Given the historical performance of "TBO" Breakouts on the daily chart for Gold over the last 3 years, we have reason to be optimistic about another breakout. So keep an eye on Gold and watch for the "TBO" Breakout Cluster to continue to unfold.
*note: we keep writing "TBO" in quotations because there is an existing ticker for TBO, and we don't want to cause confusion.
TBO Breakout on $ETHThe "TBO" Indicator (we have to type it in quotations because TBO is a ticker here on TradingView) stands for Trending Breakout Indicator, and it does two things exceptionally well: gauge the strength of the trend, and identify when a breakout (or breakdown) could happen. No indicator (just like any trader) will be 100% accurate every time, but based on past performance, we can see that the "TBO" has accurately predicted price breakouts for Ethereum 7 out of 10 times. These breakouts have resulted in moves ranging from 50% to over 500%, so you can understand why we are interested in the current price action showing two "TBO" Breakouts in the last three days.
Before we get all giddy and excited about the possibility of a bullish breakout for ETH, let's look at the last 3 times the "TBO" Breakouts failed.
Failure #1: June 2016. ETH had already made a major move from ~$1 up to $13 in early 2016. The "TBO" Breakout we're focusing on had a good structure (price above the cloud, three "TBO" Breakouts in a row, all "TBO" lines in the cloud pointing up). There must have been some FUD at the time to drop the price -52% over 2 days, and I don't know what it could have been.
Failure #2 and #3: both of these happened right next to each other in 2021. Both of these happened after a huge run starting back in December 2020.
So why did these fail? Our guess is because these "TBO" Breakouts were printed after substantial moves over 700%, both in 2016 and in 2020 (funny how those are 4 years apart...). While not every "TBO" Breakout resulted in several hundred percent moves, each successful breakout seems to have appeared after the completion of a bear market lasting about a year. So when we step back and look at the current conditions, it would seem that this is our first "TBO" Breakout after coming out of a significant bear market. For this reason we are long on Ethereum- even if for a move of only 50% or so.
What would change our mind is if the price of ETH made a sudden drop greater than 30%, which has happened in the previous failed "TBO" Breakouts mentioned above.