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Tbonds

10 yrdaily wick formed a bearish hammer IMO. Looks like yields want to retest the break out around .95. From there we watch, this means a pull back is likely coming to stocks at some point we r talking 16 basis points so could do some damage. But the DXY looks a bit mixed up and also looks like downside should continue. The 4 hour 10 yr chart looks strong so this will likely be very choppy and not a straight drop, my original target of 3880 top in SP500 looks questionable. Im basically day trading pulling quick profits until I think this drop is complete. Still long my crypto XLM XTZ as DXY weakness is apparent and my TP $88.50 still not tested so I can't really be sure today whether the DXY gets massive support & bounces off said level or if that level fails as support. But the correlation between stocks & 10yr is much stronger than stocks DXY IMO. That being said The 10 yr chart looks very similar to DXY.
TVC:US10YShort
by Big_Mike716
3
PLAY IT SHORT ENTRY PROBABILITY |T-BOND FUTURE - ZB1! - 30MNThank you for your shares and likes! Much appreciated! __________________________________________________________________ We have identified the channels which have helped to see trade other markets correlated to the ZB1! US 30 Years Future (Like GOLD for example). See how the market is bouncing around those lines. THE BLACK LINE We have identified probable line illustrating the "what the price should be", The Bottom Black Line. If the Bottom Black Line break, the probability to get profits in the short direction will be amazing. For the recent past history, this Bottom Black Line has seen pullback up. Staying in a constant uptrend overall. THE RED LINE We have identified a Top Red Line which is probably the best place to enter short from. But will the market find enough power to reach the $175 mark? Probability exists since we have seen a super squeeze of seller recently. Now small candle sticks a re running in the upward direction, one after the other like if nothing happened before. Nice 40 to 45 degree angle. No coincidence, the market has closed at the top on the channel. A critical point from which anything can happen. The market could probably break up and test highs or go down staying in the blue channels traced. WHAT TO DO? It is more likely that you make good decision only when the market approaches those Red or Black line. In between, anything can happen for the moment. So 171.1, 172.23 and 175 will possibly be the most important prices. So, probably, only wait and observe for the moment. This is also trading.
CBOT:ZB1!
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
TBonds spread correlation suggests systemic recessionThe current trend of yield curve (10-02) looks very similar to past pre-recession eras. We heard many times that a negative yield curve means recession. But that's not the case : recessions occur with widening spreads after touching ZERO. In the past, it was a signal of systemic recession with high probability. I added a correlation indicator to SPX. We can observe clear cycles. We are currently in positive correlation, spreads are widening and SPX rising. It's the same situation than October 2007 : New ATH, quickly widening spreads above 0.70, positive correlation. Then the correlation became negative : widening spreads and falling indexes. Short sellers should focus on the correlation. As soon as it becomes negative, that's the signal of the next big recession.
TVC:US10YShort
by SebastienYC_FR
3
TBonds (ZB1!) 4H - Trapped traders on both sides of priceTrade setup There are trapped traders on both sides of price above monthly highs & lows for TBonds ZB1! on 4H timeframe. When price comes back to either of these zones - these trapped traders will want to exit - giving us an exit! Risk management 1) Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free 2) Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even 3) Close trade at 3R 4) Winner = 1.75R Strategy Pickup a pair which is highly correlated to DXY (if trading DXY or an uncorrelated instrument, ignore the correlation) AND Wait for market structure to break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders AND Liquidity in form of equal highs/lows should not be present behind the stop loss AND Since the pair is highly correlated to DXY , the formation of HH/LL in DXY should support the trade's direction at the time of zone's formation
CBOT:ZB1!
by makuchaku
POSSIBILITY OF RECOVERY, RANGING, THEN, PULLBACK DOWN - UB1! -30Thank you for your likes and shares! Much appreciated! ___________________________________________________ This is not a Squeeze, it is a true market trend. Possibility of seeing the market ranging in the lower area of Andrew's Pitchfork zones which acts all as true resistances. Beware, possibility of pullback on the actual price. High possibility also of recovery, ranging then pullback on the black dotted line to go down again.
CBOT:UB1!Short
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
30 year Treasury Bond Yield trend change?This will be interesting to keep an eye on over the coming years. If the ending triangle is a wave C diagonal, then it would signal the end of the down-trend in yields over the past 23+ years. Zero fundamental analysis was conducted, but it would seem there is upward pressure on yields at a time that 10 year T bonds is in a corrective phase - down 12+% from 2012 highs. Each wave C of the first two ABC corrections extended ~1:1 but not less. The current ABC has extended slightly more than 0.786 and is displaying a tightening range. If the triangle is a a wave 1 diagonal then this would strongly imply moderate to strong upward pressure on government bonds and a conservative estimate of 44+ is possible. The most plausible bearish scenario would be a downward breakout to around the 1:1 extension of wave A down to the sub 17 range. That would place the triangle in the wave 4 position in wave C down. The next couple of years will illuminate all. Another possibility is a meandering sideways correction instead of a definitive breakout. Yes I am covering my bases; it could go up, down, or sideways :) But I expect a trend change with some strength behind it. I am not an investor in this market. But am sharing this for my own technical analysis education.
TLong
by flyinkiwi10
T-Bond futures peakedThe weekly chart shows the recent surge is likely topping, and might start falling between now and the next 3 weeks probably. Fundamentals favor a decline as governments go into spending binges to counteract the virus induced crisis. @timwest pointed out this short idea recently, props to him for spotting it. I do like how wild the disconnect vs #Gold is now, might be interesting to look into trading the spread soon. As a sidenote, the asset classes that sold off while this rally was occurring might turn around by the 2nd week of April (like stocks and #Bitcoin). Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by IvanLabrie
General Markets AnalysisBITFINEX:BTCUSD FX:EURUSD NASDAQ:FB CBOT:ZT1! AMEX:SPY COMEX:GC1! Bitcoin, EURUSD, Facebook, T-Bonds, SPY, Gold, etc...it is not important to make profit on a specific asset. What is important is to optimize operations regardless of the assets, clearly selected and constantly monitored. Potentially earning $10,000 on cryptocurrency or forex, while maintaining a high risk profile rather than $5,000 with a low risk profile, won't get you very far and especially it's not the setting of the big traders. If you intend otherwise to allocate capital to a diversified portfolio of stocks, commodities, cryptocurrencies, bonds, indices, investing in the long term then we are talking about other things.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALEducation
by SwissTradingSchool
ZN1! P-Modeling Pt 1. 10 Year T-Note Futures. Extreme CajunZN1! 10 Year T-Note Futures . Extreme Prediction Modeling Architecture on a One Week Time-frame. The following chart is an very experimental Extreme Long Range Prediction Model, using quantum graphing decoding protocols that were developed to tease out very complex long-range modeling architectures... This has mostly common sense schematics outlined.. Find the 10 year cycle patterns. Decode the Matrix Residual from those patterns. Copy/Paste correct residuals into hyperspace. Gather Geometric Support thru Regression/Vector blueprints of ecosystem. Post idea and wait... I honestly see this to be apart of a historic correlation with the SPX ... I do not expect to be right. Fully.. But, this is potentially a full ecosystem reset ... A Recession Cycle.. Laugh now... Cry Later.. Doubt is an illusion to the truth... Doubt now, Laugh Later.. Love Everything. Failure is a necessary component of success. ;) Please see the following charts as evidence to support the evidence towards a full cycle reset... ZF1! ZT1! Welcome to the Hyperspace and thanks for pondering the Unknown with me, Glitch420
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by Glitch420