11/28/23 SPX Daily Outlook11/28/23 SPX Daily Outlook
#SPX #DailyOutlook:
We made the low of the day during the over night sessions. There was a NWOG that was left on Sunday and this is where price has been reacting during the NY open session. The PM sessions fell down into the 4H+FVG(H), TDO and D+OB(H) then pushed into the NWOG. There was also a bounce in the London/ Pre Market Session off of the D+OB(H) again. On the open the price rejected the PG but then held the D+OB(H) again and ranging through the NY open until the close.
This will be our biggest news release, however, we do have a few #FOMC speakers but not Powell. We also have Richmond Manufacturing Index numbers #RMI and the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y at 9:00am.
10:00am
USD
CB #ConsumerConfidence
101.0 102.6
#BullishCase: The bullish case will be our response to the NWOG (New Week Open Gap) which we have reacted off of and sold off from but, at the current price we are sitting near the low again. We could use the PG to push through and buy from and the aim will be the PDH/PWHs. Look for an impulse through and a return to it.
#BearishCase: The PDL from Monday is our POI for the sell setup. We need to watch the LTFs for an impulse through the low and on the LTFs once we trade through the low wait for a fresh -POI for a LTF setup.
1H chart
4H chart
D Chart
TDO
SPX setup 9/23/22Looking for a retracement at this area for rejection and continuation.
No reason for us to move higher than this but if we do the A/S range left a FVG, an -OB, TDO, and the daily open as supply.
Going to be waiting for the times & sales to show the entry. The pass few days NAS has shown all the order flow except for the afternoon entry on SPX.
Projected low from daily fib level
End of the week so the risk will be reduced and no trades will be at a risk of more than 0.25% for the total of all trades entered.
SPX neutral with a bias to the downsideAfter yesterday's drop that hit my 3770 target, we are holding near the weekly lows in discount. On the LTF the buying started in A/S sessions on through London session to take out some on the short term price imbalances.
Last POI was a reaction off of a -FVG that can be seen on the 15m and 1H charts. We will need to see if the fresh +FVG (not noted but its there on the same charts), the A/S session range, the DO, or the TDO holds up, else we continue down for the day. There's even a +OB at the 2:30 candle on the 15m, so I'll definitely be watching out for these +POIs.
The unemployment claim release at 8:30 is a good catalyst for a decision on the move today and that's where I'll be focused in on. The forecast is for higher claims and I am in agreement with that but I'll be patient in my bias.
Terms:
LTF: Lower Time Frame
POI: Point Of Interest
A/S: Asian Sydney session
-FVG: Bearish Fair Value Gap
+FVG: Bullish Fair Value Gap
DO: Daily Open
TDO: True Day Open
+OB:Bullish Order Block
SPX setup 9/20/22Trading inside yesterday's move up and near the weekly opening price.
Currently inside a 15m+FVG on no volume so I'll be paying attention to this area for the time being. The times and sales and level 2 aren't showing anyone big trading for now, so we wait.
I'm neutral to bullish for the short term but if we trade near the daily and the 15m-FVG and reject, I don't mind reversing the position in the opposite direction.