SPX500USD M15 Not Perfected SetupSpoken about the not Perfected Setup… where the highest of the sixth and seventh candle It’s not superseded by the highest of the eighth or ninth candle.
So you can expect that in the next 3 to 5 candles, the Setup high (Also, the highest of the sixth or seventh candle) should be superseded before retracement proper.
They noted in this chart that the purple box should be broken into and above.
Let’s watch the demonstration…
Tdsequential
S&P 500 Attempt to Test Previous HighThe Monthly S&P is overbought and at a 9 TD Sequential Sell signal, that is why the market pulled back. The Daily after the pullback has found buyers at previous breakout resistance turned support (Change of Polarity). The Weekly has relieved the overbought condition and I believe this is the point where bulls will see if they can continue the bull market. On the Daily chart I show something like a 5-8% profit potential to the next Falling
Window resistance area and high. The Daily TD Sequential has a green 2>1 allowing for a new long position. This is happening on a breakout of the Falling Window resistance. The 39 minute chart (10 Daily candles on U.S. stock market) shows a close above EMA 200 followed by the previous candle closing above the Window resistance. You can use this to open a new long position with a stop loss below the low of the window.
CCCS - BuyI used TradingView's stock screener to find assets with ADX (14) crossing up 15 on Weekly charts and came upon this CCCS. All of this analysis is based on a Weekly chart. First and foremost this is the first time that ADX is crossing up 15 in the chart's history. Secondly, TD Sequential is on 8/9 of a Buy signal. Third, it's at the bottom of the Bollinger Band. Fourthly, it's at Fibonacci Pivots S2. Lastly, this exact spot is a convergence of several Fibonacci support levels. This looks like the bottom of a coming up trend.
38.20% pullback into Monthly Fibonacci Pivots S2:
38.20% pullback:
127.20% extension support:
Uptrend neared 2.618% extension:
ADX crossing up 15 first time in stock's history:
Bollinger Band lower band:
End of Microsoft Bull Run ReachedFrom Left to Right:
1. Horizontal Resistance off of Doji High.
2. Price falls to 200 EMA.
3. Trend-Based Fib Extension is drawn from Bullish Engulfing Pattern Low at 200 EMA to Doji High (confirming previous Doji resistance), and finally down to Bullish Engulfing Pattern.
4. Price broke out of the $340 horizontal resistance and hit Yearly Fibonacci Pivots targets R1 & R2.
5. Trend-Based Fib Extension targets 0.786 & 0.886 reached.
6. Monthly Fib Pivots targets R1 & R2 reached.
7. TD Sequential 9 Sell Signal.
LINK Potential IH&S, High Confluence, $26 Target 1, $32 Target 2🎯 TL;DR Potential IH&S + W3 Target: $26; W3 Target 2: $32; High Confluence
📈 With the recent dip to $15.3, BITGET:LINKUSDT might be forming an Inverted Head & Shoulders (IH&S) pattern with a $26 target.
The 50VWMA is acting as support in this area, and TD Sequential printed a Perfect Buy Setup (red M9) yesterday, offering additional confluence.
This retracement is also 61.8% of the previous leg up, setting a potential Wave 3 Target 1 also at $26, and a potential Wave 3 Target 2 at $32.
✅ Confirmation would be a daily close above the neckline at $19.3.
For a safer entry, wait for a daily close above $20, which is a previous resistance, a High Volume Node (HVN) and a key psychological level.
Keep an eye on $22.9 as it previously triggered a rejection.
❌ Invalidation would be a daily close below $15.3, and it would likely lead back to trading in a rectangle between $12.8 and $19.2.
If you have any questions about the TA, feel free to ask. I am always more than happy to share and discuss charts.
Not Financial Advice
NASDAQ - Bounce and Lower Low incoming this weekJust a quick demonstration...
Accouding to the TD Setup rules, a normally perfected TD Buy Setup would see the lowest point of the 8th and 9th candle be lower than the lowest point of the 6th and 7th candle. This to say, if it is normally projectable, then there would be a Lower Low point less than 17113 over the next three days, if not another three days after that (likely, this week).
So, the red box should be pierced through.
Watch for it...
CFX - 🚩 Flying High: Unveiling the Bullish Flag Formation 📈🚀On the weekly chart, CFX displays a promising bull flag formation. In the long term, it resembles a head and shoulders pattern around 0.09, with a favorable risk-reward profile. There are two resistance ladders on KDJ and Fisher indicators that need to be surpassed. The projected path is shown in black. The bull flag setup remains intact, even potentially retracing to the 0.07c area.
PS Notice the green highlights on indicators.
BITCOIN: $236.193 Month MA 3/12 Dead Cross:
TD SEQUENTIAL Buy Setup projected January 01 2024. Target TDST Support: $236.19
61.80% Fibonacci retracement from Bitcoin at $0.00 to ATH altings exactly with TDST support:
So what’s the plan? Play the short game all of 2023, and get in now before the action starts!
DK: 200ema supportDK (Delek US holdings)
Nice risk reward here on $DK for a swing long. A few reasons I like it:
-with T D sequential reversal 9 daily ,
- support of 200ema,
-and RSI at the lows.
I will wait until the end of the trading session today and see where it goes before entering a small swing.
Trade safe.
Nasdaq Weekly & Monthly downtrend exhaustingTLDLR: Weekly and monthly sellers likely exhausted. I am holding or opening longs.
The TD sequential is a nifty indicator that helps you know when a sell off has gone on long enough for a particular time frame. Getting a bearish 9 is a fair sign of exhaustion. The Nasdaq having a weekly and monthly 9 flashing currently is a sign I take very seriously that thinks are going to be moving to the upside for US equities and select "OG" crypto currencies.
The S&P chart likewise shows how very rare 9s are on the weekly or monthly time frame. I am sympathetic to the idea that people are concerned that we might have a "dot com" type bust but I don't see that in the cards yet. I think we are more likely to see QQQ double top or set a higher high than a bull trap.
I could be wrong. Risk management is still a thing. But I remain convinced the highest probability move is bitcion has a 2014-15 style consolidation and then a massive bull run and many alts will be blowing off their tops in 3-4 years.
My linked ideas show why I am bullish with a bit more detail.
Here is the deal with the USD...UP... within the next three weeks.
First, it has completed the Cup & Handle pattern, a very reliable pattern. Now on the breakout and the projection is mapped (dotted aroow line).
Second, technical indicators of the MACD are bullish, and continue to support an uptrend. There is no bearish divergence observed.
Third, the other set of technical indicators for money flow, and volume are also supporting the continued upside, with no indication of bearish divergence.
Finally, the weekly TD Sequential Sell Setup just completed (green box with black background), with a small kink... that the 8th and 9th candle highs are not higher than the 7th candle high. According to TD Sequential rules, we can expect that at some point in the next three candles (or so), the 7th candle high would be taken out and exceeded in an attempt to Perfect the TD Sequential Sell Setup.
So... expect the USD to end up in the range around the white ellipse.
Perhaps then we might see some real signs of the USD abating its bull run?
Note that with a massive bull run on the USD, markets are being affected badly, and money flow is unusually into the USD (exiting most other markets). Furthermore, the longer this stretches, the worse the unwinding becomes with commodities when the USD retraces. It is like an overstretched rubber band, and its dicey before we know who would release it first... the tension followed by the release of that tension. Oof...
Glove’s Index volume info graphic comprised of 4kings. 3/Oct/22This chart shown the average price ( index) of 4 major gloves manufacturers in the world which are Topglove, Hartalega, Kossan and Supermx where they “contribute “ almost half of the world’s gloves market. As said trend is our friends but without “volume” in stock market there is no trend. The “shifting” polarity of bull trend to bear trend all cause by “panic” buying ( climax)/ selling Climax probably due to FOMO ( fear of missing out) in uptrend and “fear of losing” ..due “borrowed money” which cause “margin call” in downtrend..
SPY can't get it up...Just a quick pre-weekend analysis and update about the SPY.
Previously, it looked like the SPY was about to do a technial bounce, but the week panned out to be more fear overwhelming than anything else. The MACD is not divergent, so any bounce can be expected to be shallow; just like Wednesday's bounce, and not following through the next day. It appears a little oversold, and at support cross-roads. With the bearish Buy Setup in force indicating a bearish primary trend, a bounce of some sort is still in the cards. So we play the bull and bear case scenario again.
(Slight) Bull case sees a mild rally to about 380 (most likely, as it meets a set of resistances) or perhaps stretch to 390, where should start to stall and turn down again. The TD Seq Sell Setup should start with a TD Flip, then proceed to build but not likely to change the primary trend by exceeding 403. In fact, it might even truncate. If this scenario happens, it would take us to almost mid-October, and the rest of October might be pretty bearish to reach the projected downside target(s), 305 and 330, which have been readjusted for time.
The bear case here is a consolidation around 370 and then most of October fall off the cliff type of bear market to 350, then to 330.
The slight bull case appears more probable at this point with a favourable 70/30 skew. But whichever way, it is in the middle of a bear trend and it is not quite over.
For now, I'd be watching the next week or two to see how this pans out...
PS. So far, the projected lines (based on the symmetrical HH and LL pattern) is still robust and uncanny, which was posted on Aug 3.
SPY Hourly Intraday analysis using TD Setup and MACD - Part IIITo continue, last we saw was:
After the last Buy Setup completed (red box), it broke down the lowest point of the previous opposing Sell Setup ( aka TDST at 398, red dotted line), hence a reiteration that the primary trend is still bearish .
Next, the SPY consolidated and made a weak attempt to break upwards, but ended up with a lower high by a terribly bearish looking doji , which was followed by a lower low. This also started the next TD Sequential Buy Setup that closed the day's trading on candle 7.
On Friday, the TD Seq Buy Setup continued with a Perfection, where a significant gap down on the 8th candle simply perfected the TD Seq Buy Setup. This was followed by a TD Flip (yellow up arrow) and the opposing Setup started forming. The MACD indicates a crossover, as well as a bullish divergence, in support of the current TD Seq Sell Setup forming.
Remember, the primary trend (in the hourly SPY chart) is currently bearish; and the TDST to turn the primary trend is to close above 396 (green dotted line). In the process, there should be a Gap Close, and it is possible to have a breakdown or breakout. The FOMC decision/announcement is something that is happening on 21 September, and would add volatility to the equation, allowing substantial movement either way. So do look out for that...
Just to share, and for demonstration of how a trade could be managed, a real (short) position was taken at the white down arrow, and closed about 15 minutes after market opened on a gap down (white up arrow) . Several reason why the position was closed, particularly, the Setup was near end, and perfected; furthermore, the gap down did not push the MACD for a lower low and the candlestick exceeded the Bollinger Band to quickly retrace back in.
You can see how hours later, a TD Flip and MACD cross over would have solidified the bullish retracement.
So, many ways to capitalize on the technicals. First get the technicals well done, then devise a concept strategy that would keep you safe (higher probability on your side of the trade), and manage the risk (exposure).
This would conclude this three part series on SPY Hourly Intraday analysis using TD Setup and MACD. I hope that there is some clarity on the use of technical indicators like TD Sequential, MACD, Bollinger Bands, as well as fractal analysis, to help in monitoring and risk management.
Would appreciate your comments and questions if any. Thanks in advance.
Stay safe and well.
PS. Do find the books that Thomas DeMark wrote as well as the version more recent summary by Jason Perl. Enjoy!
PSS. Special thank you to those (not mentioned) who had shared their codes, knowledge and analyses. It has truly helped me. To the the readers and followers, I hope this helps you too. Get better, get good, and pass it along...
Down came rain and washed the SPY-der out... Reference to the the just posted NASDAQ analysis; and in this analysis, the TD Sequential is switched on for a slightly new perspective, one that had been posted over the week on the hourly SPY chart. Now, you get to see it in the longer term chart and observe how fractal it can be.
The weekly SPY chart had a "Stick Sandwich" that looks more like a Bearish Engulfing IMHO. The difference here is that the SPY covers more than technology stocks (despite technology stocks taking up a lot of the S&P500 market cap). Technical indicators are similarly divergent, MACD bearish, RPM somewhat bullish. The TD Sequential (Buy) Setup is forming midway, just below the first TDST support (red dotted line), and is suggesting a bearish primary trend is forming.
What this TD Sequential pattern tells is that IF the current TD Seq Setup is to complete, then we should see the next 4-6 weeks of downside; probably fulfilling the the symmetrical projection to 325 (where the next TDST support line is).
These are the main factors that suggest more downside should be expected.
Zooming further out into the SPY monthly chart (right panel), with the TD Sequential switched on, and there is good and bad news here... The current TD Seq Setup completes in October, but in order to be Perfected, a low that is lower than 412 needs to be registered over the next 4 months; quite possibly meeting the monthly 55EMA. which is about 355 currently.
The geed news here is that on the monthly chart, the primary trend is still bullish, given the last TD Seq Setup (green box) in 2020 to March 2021. The TDST needed to turn the primary trend bearish would be a monthly close below 296.
So, at least for the rest of this year, the (monthly) primary trend is still bullish, notwithstanding that a recent lower low needs to be registered. ie. still downside risk prevails in the shorter term over the next couple of months.
MACD and RPM technical indicators support this view.
Also noted (the yellow arrow) that last month's candle was a bearish indication with a long upper tail, Shooting Star styled pattern. Furthermore, this month's halfway completed candle is already looking bearish, as it needs to. So, you get the idea...
Overall, these suggest that the SPY should be targeting a downside somewhere between 325-355 from now to the end of 2022.
BTCUSD TD SEQUENTIAL FLASHES 9The Tom Demark Sequential Indicator flashes 9 on the monthly chart. Each time this happened, the bottom was set and Bitcoin prepared for another bull run.
If you draw the Fibonacci from the monthly candle at the time the TD Sequential flashed a 9 to the highest point on the monthly candle that Bitcoin closed the bull run, Bitcoin then made a bottom at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement two times already.
This is exactly where we are now.
The bottom is in, it is now up to the bulls to slowly start growling. Be patient, just stack sats, and we're all going to be fine.