Is the Party ending soon?Some of the evidence suggesting that the party is about to end
1) 200 day Smooth Moving Average, historically a great Support/Resistance Level
2) TD Sequential
12 hour TD at 16
Daily TD at 13
Weekly TD at 9
3) NVT Showing reversal at both
daily and weekly candles
4) Potential RSI & Volume Divergence with Double Top
Tdsequential
Bitcoin Price Action Update (day 341)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: Bullish. 50 EMA posturing for golden cross with 200 EMA.
Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | 4h ascending triangle
Horizontals: R: $5,341 | S: 5,150
Trendline: 1h channel
Parabolic SAR: $4,800 and accelerating fast
Futures Curve: Contango
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
BTCUSDSHORTS: Looks like an A&E bottom, starting to build significantly over the past few hours
TD’ Sequential: Daily G4 | Weekly just closed a perfected G9
Ichimoku Cloud: Fully bullish
Relative Strength Index: Testing all time highs
Average Directional Index: Weekly still trending down. Daily is very bullish
Price Action: 24h: +6.05% | 2w: +38% | 1m: +39.08%
Bollinger Bands: Hugging the top band
Stochastic Oscillator: Weekly entering overbought territory
Summary: It has been a very long time since we have seen a weekly candle like this!
Markets are moving and it is time to pay close attention but we do not want to get ahead of ourselves. The weekly just closed a perfected green 9 and there is major resistance overhead. It starts getting heavy around $5,600 and it will become much bigger at $5,800.
If prices get to that area while being this overbought then it will be the best selling opportunity of the year. That being said I did enter a small long this afternoon at $5,190 when the price confirmed the ascending triangle. The target from the triangle is $5,669 which is right in line with where horizontal resistance is marked.
If we reach that target then I will be taking full profit and looking to go short. Despite entering long I have market this update as neutral because I wasn’t to post it in time. At $5,190 the risk:reward was slightly less than 1:2 and now the price is testing $5,300. That makes it far less attractive.
If you missed out on this current pump then make up for it by preparing to sell very soon. If we rally to $5,600 - $5,800 then I do not expect those prices to last for long. The market will be extremely overbought at major resistance and that usually results in a strong / fast reaction. The risk:reward of opening a short in that area will be at least 1:5.
Bitcoin Price Action Update (day 340)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: Weekly is bearish. Daily is bullish
Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | A&E hit it’s target today
Horizontals: R: $5,078 & $5,345
Trendline: Brokethrough bear trend
Parabolic SAR: $4,360 and accelerating fast
Futures Curve: Still slightly in backwardation
Funding Rates: Longs pay 0.0015%
BTCUSDSHORTS: Looks like it is starting to bounce from support
TD’ Sequential: Green 9
Ichimoku Cloud: Just like Consensio, weekly is bearish and daily is bullish
Relative Strength Index: Last time it was this high was December 2017
Average Directional Index: Daily just crossed 25. I don’t think the +DI has ever been this diverged from the -DI. I’m not sure what to make of it...
Price Action: 24h: +2.22% | 2w: +26.83% | 1m: +46.94%
Bollinger Bands: Full candle above top band, now on the second.
Stochastic Oscillator: Sell signal
Summary: Bitcoin is showing a lot of signs of exhaustion. Today just opened a green 9 after closing a shooting star. The is in line with a sell signal from the Stochastic while the RSI is at levels we have not seen since the top.
It could continue this run but I don’t think that it will make it far. What is interesting is the 200 EMA flattening out while the 50 is starting to turn up. If the price can support above $4,600 over the next couple weeks then we would get a golden cross.
That would be very interesting, but it would certainly take time. Something I will be keeping a close eye on.
All signs are pointing towards a pullback. If that doesn’t happen then it definitely will not be a buying opportunity. There is a lot of resistance from here all the way up to $5,800.
It is definitely time to be paying close attention and to have a clear plan that you can commit to. Don’t make emotional decisions for large amounts of your capital. Have a plan and move in portions.
$TEVA in Buy Zone + Daily and Weekly TD 9'sI've been watching $TEVA for awhile now and finally it is hitting my first buy target.
Both the Daily and Weekly are showing a TD 9, however the daily did break the TD resistance line.
Furthermore, the RSI, CMF, moving averages, stoch, and current bearish candle all point to $TEVA moving lower.
I'm going to enter half of my position size in now and wait for a green 1 over a green 2 for the rest of it.
Feedback is always welcome. If you found this helpful, please leave a like.
Time to short! $ADA $ADABTCHi guys,
Hope you all are doing well. Congrats, BTC hitt 4800!!!:))
Unfortunately Ada didn't reach my target of 1850 yet. It triggered my stoploss around 1700 Sats.
Right now we are writing a red candle 1 on the daily. So let's wait a week and see what happens. I will set my buy orders lower. Ada can go down towards 1480, be aware of that. This area is a good buy to ride the next wave.
Please leave a comment if you like,
Enjoy your day!
Bitcoin Price Action Update (day 339)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: Fully bullish, price breaking through 200 EMA
Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | Brokethrough bear TL
Horizontals: R: $5,100 | S: $4,676
Trendline: Brokethrough 11 month bear TL
Parabolic SAR: $4,019
Futures Curve: Backwardation, looks like it is flipping back to Contango
Funding Rates: Longs pay 0.012%
BTCUSDSHORTS: At support
TD’ Sequential: Weekly G9 | Daily G7
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily is bullish. Weekly Kijun is resistance
Relative Strength Index: Weekly brokethrough 50 | Daily at 86
Average Directional Index: Weekly testing 25 with +DI just crossing -DI
Price Action: 24h: +16.95% | 2w: +20.61% | 1m: +40.54%
Bollinger Bands: Going to close above daily band
Stochastic Oscillator: Daily sell signal
Summary: Price has broken through the 11 month bear trend with authority. At the same time it brokethrough the high volume node in the Visible Range Volume Profile. The 200 day EMA didn’t even slow it down which was a bit surprising.
Now it is mostly open air from $5,000 - $5,800. The lack of volume at $5,000, also known as the gap, makes me think we should smash right through that area. However I do not think it is time to overexcited and / or buy at these prices.
The weekly TD Sequential is on a green 9 with the daily on a green 7. The daily RSI is also very overbought. Also look at the price action! Up more than 15% in the last 24 hours. That is a strong indicator that we need to cool off.
I do not think that was the bottom. Bottoms are marked by disbelief and the large majority believe that was the bottom. Resistance should be very strong at $5,800 and I do not expect this rally to get past that area. I will be looking to sell this bounce and will not consider changing my disposition unless we spend some time above $6,500.
What I will be watching from here is for the RSI to create a bear div while price rallies towards major resistance. That would providing an ideal selling opportunity, especially if it occurs in the next 5 - 6 days which would be right in line with the weekly closing a green 9.
One last push towards my target of 1850Hi Cocopups!
Hope ya'll doing fine. Let me drop my chart of Ada. We all know what is coming up next month, but looking at the chart Ada is bound for a retrace.
I'm looking for one last push upwards till 1850. That's my target of the Inverse Head & Shoulders. There is a chance we won't make it so I put a stop around 1700.
I'm looking to buy back around 1460 and ride the next wave up.
On the 12 hourly we have a 9th on the TD seq, reverse of the trend is coming plus we have already bearish divergences on multiple timeliness.
So one last push up Ada and then take a rest, you deserved it!
Enjoy your beautiful day!
BUY BITCOIN: Tom DeMark 9-13-9-13.
In the previous two trades I recommended setting a stop-loss because of a potential bearish reversal, and finally a sell signal to take-profits. A day of no movement under the psychologically significant $4,000 mark, no selling... this I think is a bullish sign and only continues my previous weekly Trading Idea. 01 April completes 9-13. Bull market! :D
SELL BITCOIN - TD Price Flip + Perfected Setup?
A move -5.22% from here would cancel the developing Weekly setup where we are currently 6/9. If this occurs between now and 18 March that would invalidate 3-4 weeks of a projected bullish trend.
12H current state:
- Bearish Engulfing Pattern.
- Below 4K.
- Rejected by historic downward sloping trendline.
- Below Kijun.
12H state if TD Sequential flips:
- Below Ichimoku Span A.
- Below TD Sequential support.
- Below Bearish Engulfing Pattern support.
Considering that the Monthly chart has us on a red 8/9, the above bearish scenario could potentially create the conditions for a Perfected Buy setup if price gets below the January low of 3349.92. This would constitute a move -13.42% from here.
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I'm standing aside in USDT with a buy order at 4230 to catch any sudden bullish run. If things go bearish the ideal BUY scenario would occur on/about 01 April (Weekly chart) on a Tom Demark Perfected Buy setup near 3349.92.
Bitcoin 'Daily' Update - Day 338Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
*Using Weekly Chart*
Consensio: S EMA tried to make bullish cross with M EMA and looks like it is getting rejected which is very bearish.
Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | Bear Channel | A&E or Bear Flag?
Horizontals:
Trendline:
Parabolic SAR: $4,123
Futures Curve: Backwardation
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0032%
BTCUSDSHORTS: Took out horizontal support and appears to be turning it into resistance
TD’ Sequential: Green 5
Ichimoku Cloud: Tried to break through Tenkan-Sen but appears to be getting rejected
Relative Strength Index: Has climbed from 29 to 40 without the price going anywhere. I view that as bearish
Price Action: 24h: -2.3% | 2w: -4.5% | 30d: +6.5%
Bollinger Bands: MA at $4,186
Stochastic Oscillator: Rallying while price is flat
Summary: In the last daily update I said that:
“I can’t remember the last time I felt this bullish about crypto”
In 4 days I have gone from very bullish to neutral / slightly bearish. When the market flashes a bunch of bullish signals in confluence and then fails to go anywhere I take that as a very bearish sign.
We got a monthly Stochastic buy signal in confluence with a weekly buy signal. That is such a rare occurrence that it should be providing a lot of demand. The 4 & 9 week EMA’s were threatening to make a bullish cross for the first time in 7 months and likewise it should have created a significant amount of demand.
The futures market was in backwardation while the price was greater than the 2 week high, this is hands down one of my top two most bullish indicators. An Adam & Eve appeared to be forming on the 1D and was very clear on the 3D. The monthly TD Sequential was on a red 8. The 50 day EMA was rolling up and acting as support. The daily Ichimoku Cloud was fully bullish and acting as support.
Literally all of my favorite indicators were pointing in one direction which should mean there were a ton of traders seeing the same thing and entering orders to buy. When the supply overwhelms that much buying pressure then it is something to pay very close attention to.
Big moves often come after supply completely overwhelms all of the technical demand. It is a very strong indication that bears are overwhelming the bulls with ease. This is starting to feel very much like late September 2018. I am going to be staying away from entering new positions until this range breaks. At a minimum that means the blue pennant that has been drawn and even then I may want to wait until $3,200 or $4,200 falls.
On the bright side this will give me some much needed time to buckle down and focus on writing the book on Hyperwaves which I am co authoring with Leah Wald and Tyler Jenks. On the other hand I will have little motivation to make new updates until this range is broken. If you don’t hear from me for a while then that is why. I might have to change the name to Bitcoin Update and remove the daily aspect. Cheers!
$MCK - Inverse Head & Shoulder Setup with daily TD 9 I'm very bullish on $MCK and their 2020 plan. The drug distribution company is selling off due to FDA issuing warnings to all distribution companies for shipping "illegitimate" opioid products. I encourage you all to look at the software side of $MCK's business and the McKesson 2020 plan.
As for the charts, Daily TD 9 from Tone Vay's TD indicator + an inverse head and should forming.
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P.S: America Will Never Be a Socialist Country.
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 56 (0.466 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
It looks like we are finally getting some volatility and this is very exciting. In order for me to succeed with this challenge I need a big trend that I am able to enter into early in the game. The chop that has occurred over the last two months has been very difficult to trade.
If USDTRY can resume it’s bullish trend then it is game on. I am ready to bet big on this one, but as always will be starting small. The 4h chart recently had a red 9 at support and that was a good opportunity for me to start building a position.
Next I am watching for a golden cross with the 50 and 200 EMA’s. After that I will be watching for the same golden cross but on the Daily. If that goes as expected then I will be building a long position of ~10 BTC.
If all goes according to plan and then my most conservative target gets hit I will be back in the green for this challenge. The chances of that happening are realistic but not necessarily to be expected. As long as I continue to diligently manage risk and wait for ideal entries then I am confident I can get this challenge going in the right direction in the allotted time frame.
The crypto markets are also very interested for the first time in months. It is right on the verge of making a big move as far as I can tell. To learn more about what I am watching for see the Watchtower below as well as the 335th day of the Bitcoin Daily Update .
Open Positions
Exposure: 0.14 lots (3.66 BTC)
Long USDTRY
Enter: $5.3107
Stop: $5.236
Risk: 1.39%
Watchtower
USDTRY
Notes: Price getting squeeze in between 50 & 200 EMA’s on 4h and D.
Gameplan: Add if 4h GC. Add on D GC if not too far away from price. Close > $5.56 is another signal to add
Target: $6.55 (ATH Retest) & $8.00 (Big W Target)
ETHBTC
Patterns: Descending triangle.
Notes: Getting squeezed between 50 & 200 D EMA’s with beautiful cupping pattern
Target: 0.07 if break triangle to upside
Gameplan: Waiting to see how market reacts to Hard Fork. The technicals are very bullish, but Hard Forks are generally a sell. This might be different since there is no alt token being created.
ETHUSD
Notes: First bullish crossover with 4 & 9 week EMA’s since April 23, 18. Only the 2nd since Feb 2017.
Gameplan: Same as above
LTCBTC
Notes: Weekly golden cross with price above 200 W EMA.
Gameplan: If BTC can close a daily above $3,922 then I will be looking for longs. Will enter on LTC if ETH hard fork hasn’t happened yet.
A Response To DLavrov Crypto is an unregulated and manipulated market - This cannot be honestly disputed
Based on my personal analysis of 1W BTCUSDT BITTREX , I think that the entire price movement from January 28th to present day can be precisely explained based on the Tom DeMark indicator .
I don't want to be a person who vandalizes Top Authors' Trading Ideas by posting my own charts in the comments section as a way to advertise my ego, so I will describe in words the Tom DeMark algorithm and why price action was predictable. This will be a long post.
First some back-story: The reason that we use candlesticks on charts is because of Steve Nison . He is the father of Candlestick Analysis. Steve Nison in his seminars teaches about "trend exhaustion" . What he teaches is the work of Tom DeMark. What I'm about to explain is information which is known to the richest institutional traders in the world. There are large organizations who specialize in and only trade based on Tom DeMark's work. I begin:
Tom DeMark developed an algorithm, a specific set of rules which predictably identify points of TREND EXHAUSTION in charts of all time frames, across all markets. The algorithm and psychology is thus:
How To Identify Trend Exhaustion:
1) Identify a SETUP where 9 ***consecutive*** candles close higher/lower than the open/close 4 periods earlier. [ MOMENTUM ]
1) (Expect a 1-4 candle correction in the opposite direction of the momentum.) [ CORRECTION ]
2) This MOMENTUM creates a COUNTDOWN (TREND). After the 9th candle, identify 13 additional candles (they do not need to be sequential) whose close is higher/lower than the open/close 2 periods earlier. [ TREND ]
2) (The TREND which was created by the MOMENTUM of the SETUP has exhausted itself. Expect a correction in the opposite direction of the trend.) [ EXHAUSTION ]
TL;DR : This recent price action which we observed on the 1W chart was caused by a chain of events begun on May 14th 2018. Events:
1) Tom DeMark Sequential on May 14th 2018 identified a period beginning 9 consecutive days of bearish MOMENTUM.
2) This bearish MOMENTUM exhausted itself on July 09 2018 and culminated in a +34% price correction, ending 3 periods later on a Bearish Engulfing Pattern.
3) The Tom DeMark bearish COUNTDOWN began on August 06 2018 where for the first time price closed lower than the candle 2 periods earlier.
4) The Tom DeMark bearish COUNTDOWN culminated on the 13th close lower than the close 2 candles prior, on January 28th 2019 . This completed the Tom DeMark SETUP+COUNTDOWN and indicates an end to the bullish trend which began on May 14th 2018 .
5) What followed immediately thereafter was the +10% move which 3 periods later peaked at $4,200 .
What should we expect now based on Tom Demark analysis? By my interpretation, I anticipate a period of 5 MONTHS of a bullish trend on 1W charts, completing a Tom DeMark 9-13-9, and expect a pullback at this point, April 01 2019.
Summary: I believe that this price action occurred in an unregulated and highly manipulated market but that based on Technical Analysis using the Tom DeMark methodology, this price action was anticipated and acted upon by BIG MONEY INSTITUTIONS and traders who specialize in this indicator. In a field which encompasses everything from Ascending Triangles to Heikin Ashi Candles, Gann Boxes to Fibonacci Retracements, Short Positions, Long Positions, Leverage, Market Fundamentals, Elliott Waves, and flying Bitcoin rainbow unicorns, there is no one trader who is a master of everything.
I WISH TO LEAVE ON THIS POINT:
Some of you may have found my analysis informational and will use this knowledge to further your trading education to increase your profitability as a trader. To those of you, you're welcome. I share freely from the kindness of my heart and sharing knowledge lightens my soul and makes the world a better place. To those of you who have not found my analysis informational, I do not think that you will berate me and inundate me with insults as I have not offended you. I ask you to heed my words: Dmitriy Lavrov is a kind and beautiful person who for years has shared his hard and costly knowledge with the TradingView community for free . He posts Trading Ideas because he wishes to help people improve their lives . I have the great honor to work with Dmitriy on the personal community which he is building and I can tell you first hand that he is a rare and trustworthy, kind and humble, honest and beautiful man. I ask you to please stop being negative and using his TradingView comments section as an emotional garbage can . He is a human and like all of us he has feelings which he must live with every day. It is a finger in the eye and a punch in the stomach to do something kind for people for free and to be insulted and injured for it. I ask you to please reflect on your poor behaviour and stop.
Thank you for your time.
I encourage you all to study Steve Nison and Dmitriy Lavrov to become expert traders . Farewell.
zerocashcool
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 334)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: P > S EMA > M EMA > L EMA (rolling up) = fully bullish
Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | A&E
Horizontals: R: $4,259 | Will $4,113 become support?
Trendline: at $4,500
Parabolic SAR: $3,656
Futures Curve: Spot < March > June
BTCUSDSHORTS: New local low. Next support at 17,000. If that breaks down target would be 10,000
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0008%
TD’ Sequential: G8 | TDST = $4,275
Ichimoku Cloud: Just got bullish kumo twist. Very interesting how that happened at ~ the same time as the 50 EMA rolling up.
Relative Strength Index: 77
Average Directional Index: Weekly is getting close to turning bullish. 3D just did it.
Price Action: 24h: +5% | 2w: +13.5% | 1m: +16.8%
Bollinger Bands: 3D closed above top band. Love the Daily getting stuck to the top band.
Stochastic Oscillator: Bullish recross > 80.
Summary: Now is the time to be very careful. If you went long over the past week then now is the time to adjust stop losses, if you haven’t already. I have moved my stop losses on ETH and BTC well into the profit and that is a very good feeling.
If you did not long over the past couple weeks and want to now then ask yourself why? Are you getting a great setup to enter or are you feeling emotional / FOMO?
The 200 W EMA is rolling over and is currently being tested for resistance. It has held strong since November of 2018. Even if we do get through that area then there is a bear TL and 200 D EMA waiting directly above. If we can get through those areas then the volume profile indicates a high probability of returning to $6,000.
If not in a position then I would not be entering long now. We are overbought, on a green 8 at major resistance. If it were me then I would stay on the sidelines and look for signs of exhaustion and be ready to enter shorts. I do think this bounce still could have some room to go but there is no way I would feel comfortable entering a swing trade now.
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 332)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: P > S MA > M MA > L MA
Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | A&E
Horizontals: R: $3,993 | S: $3,891
Trendline: At $4,577
Parabolic SAR: $3,514
Futures Curve: Contango
BTCUSDSHORTS: Appears to be resisting throwback to TL. Failure to maintain trend would indicate a change in market disposition where less are inclined to short sell these prices.
Funding Rates: Longs will receive 0.0213% (this is very surprising)
TD’ Sequential: D G5 | W G3 > G2
Ichimoku Cloud: Attempting to close weekly above Tenkan-Sen for first time since Aug 2018
Relative Strength Index: Above 70 for first time since July 2018
Average Directional Index: Daily found support at 20 and created a higher high above 25 providing nice confirmation of this only being the beginning of the trend.
Price Action: 24h: + 0.73% 2w: +16% 1m: +11.9%
Bollinger Bands: Third close above top band. Want to see price continue to stick to that band.
Stochastic Oscillator: Weekly buy signal | Incoming daily sell
Summary: Over the last couple weeks a lot has changed for me. Namely I was asked to co author the book on Hyperwaves with Tyler Jenks and Leah Wald! I couldn’t be more excited about the opportunity, however trying to find the time has been a bit of a challenge.
My day was already scheduled so tightly that I barely had a free 30 minutes in an entire week. Now I am needing to adjust my priorities in order to make time for writing. Unfortunately that means I have less time to analyze charts and trade.
This was not a problem when the markets were dormant and quite uninteresting, however that hasn’t been the case over the last few days. While I haven’t been able to do as much analysis as I would like I am keeping a close eye on what is most important:
The 4 & 9 week EMA’s.
ETHUSD is working on it’s first bullish crossover since April of 2018 and it looks like BTC will be following closely behind. Look back over the past years and calculate how much you would have returned if you simply would have bought every bullish crossover and then taken profit and shorted every bearish crossover.
You would have bought BTC around $600 in 2016 and sold around $12,300. I am not suggesting that type of move will happen again, or anywhere close to it, I am suggesting that you should do some backtesting and see how powerful this indicator can be. Being in confluence with the weekly Stochastic buy signal provides great confirmation.
This market is showing all the signs of a big bounce, which is still hard for me to wrap my head around. Therefore I will just be taking it day by day. Being very careful about how I manage my positions and not allowing myself to become too convinced of one outcome or the another. As it stands today I am continuing to add to my long exposure and am really liking what I am seeing.
The only reason I am not calling a bottom is because I do not believe we have capitulated and that is my most important indicator for calling the bottom of a bear market.