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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 135)I am going to try doing things a little differently moving forward. The bottom line is that I have been spending much more time on this each day and seeing too little return in terms of networking and community interaction. The checklist below is what I go through every day. It is a list of my most important indicators in order of importance. There are so many different variables that it can be easy to get paralysis by analysis. My skill is being able to look at all of them and come to a concise conclusion. If this checklist helps you develop a consistent process then it is yours to use free of charge! Also feel free to skip the analysis and go straight to the conclusion at the bottom. Yesterday’s analysis: Weekly OBV div, Weekly TD countdown, 6 hour cloud, and moving average crossovers. Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,275 R: $6,377 | $6,560 | $6,660 BTCUSDSHORTS: Fitting into downward channel. Rebound didn’t test top end of channel. Instead it found resistance at 23,000. Hanging man forming. Looks like we will go for a retest of 20,000 at a minimum. Bearish cross on EMAs. Divergence in weekly long:short is significant and starting to angle back for convergence. Longs are high, shorts have room to rally. Also longs paying shorts. Div in 6 hour long:short ratio is as big as we have seen it in 2018 Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% EMA’s (12 & 26): Angling down. No longer posturing for bullish crossover. MA crossovers: Bearish. After flattening out they are angling down and spread out indicating a continued bearish trend. FIB’s: Currently bouncing off 0.382 and illustrates why we haven’t gotten to $5,00 yet. Candlestick analysis: Spinning tops, and hammers on 4h chart at support. 12 & 6 hour look to be forming a bear flag. 3day tweezer top + bearish engulfing. Weekly tweezer top and bottom?! Ichimoku Cloud: 6h is interesting. Currently at cloud + kijun support after failing to breakout. Recent bullish kumo twist. Recent TK cross on 12 hour, LS above price, Bearish cloud that the price failed to support. Price below cloud on weekly making it fully bearish. TD Sequential: Weekly 9. Would have had a green 9 on daily if 7th candle closed $16 higher. Tells me the next 7 days should be bearish (in line with original projection) and then we could get a nice bounce off the weekly 9. Visible Range: Huge gap from $4,800 - $5,500. Huge resistance up to $7,000. Slight relief until $7,775 then biggest resistance dating back 1 year. 50 & 200 MA’s (calculate % difference): X BTC Price Spreadsheet: X Bollinger Bands (1 week, 1 day, 4 hour): D: at MA, bands are tight. 3d: resisted right below MA. W: attempting to bounce off bottom band. Trendline: Down: $7,450 Up: $5,000 Daily Trend: Bearish, and at support. Fractals: Up: $6,841 Down: $5,786 On Balance Volume: Noticed that the range is getting tighter. Slapped on some BB’s and can start to see some similarities with 2016 Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: RSI back below 45, stoch pulling back. All MA’s are sell except for volume weighted MA. MACD approaching 0.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
4
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 133)Yesterday we looked at the reasons why I am expecting a $750 - $1,000 pump from the current price level. Today we will look at the mounting bullish indicators and ask ourselves if they are enough to bet against the bear trend. Today is Sunday and we only have a few hours left before the weekly candle closes. We are on a red 8 out of 9 on the TD Sequential and I would really like to see the the countdown complete before this pump continues. If we rally through $6,886 in the next couple hours then we will get a price flip before the red 9. If the countdown doesn't complete this time then it is very likely to complete in the future before this bear markets comes to an end. We are bouncing strong off the Stochastic buy signal and the Tweezer bottom . I do think there is plenty of room for this dead cat to bounce, however I am hoping that it doesn’t happen too fast such that it ruins the countdown to a 9. The RSI is back above 50 on the daily chart for the first time in two months. I view this like the 50 yard line of a football field. The bulls are now on offense and getting close to scoring position. This is an important confirmation for me when considering a long. There are currently multiple divergences in the On Balance Volume . One in the daily chart and one in the weekly. This is indicative of bigger players building a long position. The price has stayed level and the buying volume has spiked. That tells me that the proverbial smart money is accumulating at these levels and that is a very good sign for the bulls. The 12 and 26 period EMA’s on the daily chart are posturing for a bullish crossover as well as the 50 and 200 period MA ’s on the 4 hour chart. Longing one or both of those buy signals is becoming more and more attractive. If you elect to do so then I would suggest using ½ of your normal position size due to betting against the trend. A profit target of $7,500 - $8,000 is reasonable and a 5% stop loss provides a favorable risk:reward. I am going to remain on the sidelines for the time being and will be strongly considering buying each of the moving average crossovers. The main reason I am being cautious is because of the visible range volume profile . It is showing resistance stacked up from here to $9,000 with a big gap at $5,000 that is begging to be filled. Shorting this bounce and longing $5,000 are my priorities and it will not be a cause for much concern if I miss a move in between. Thank you for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 131)Yesterday we examined the ema’s crossing over on shorter time frames, the bullish setup on the 4 hour Ichimoku Cloud, as well as the reasons that kept me out of the market while awaiting further development. Today we are going to look at a few reasons why this market could have found a bottom as well a few reasons as a few reasons why it hasn't. Let’s start with the good news and end with the cautionary! There are two indicators that signaled the bottom of the last bear market, prior to the year and a half of consolidation. It was a red 9 on the weekly TD sequential and and a cross on the weekly Stochastic below 12. We haven’t gotten the 9 yet, but fingers are crossed that it will come on this drawdown. If it doesn’t then I expect we have another painful 2+ months in our near future. Now let’s take a look at a chart that I posted on Twitter (same screen name) on 6/11. It is cut off in the picture but the next arrow was straight down to $5,000. The top of that channel is serving as strong resistance and it isn’t alone. There is established horizontal resistance from $6,750 - $6,792 and we can see that it is significant when looking at the visible range volume profile on the daily chart. Building a short with a stop loss at $6,830 with a $5,000 target provides a nice risk:reward. However there are too many oversold indications on the higher time frames - such as the C-Clamps on the daily Ichimoku Cloud and the distance away from the 200 day MA . Now that the bullish indicators are starting to build you might be considering building a long. If so I would suggest using ½ of your position sizing due to betting against the trend and also entering in thirds upon the following confirmations: Red 9 on the weekly | Crossover on the 12 & 26 day EMA ’s | Golden cross on the 50 & 200 period MA’s on the daily chart. Be like a chess player, always thinking moves in advance and never being caught off guard! Thank you for reading! Have a question? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don't miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 130)Yesterday we narrowed in on major areas of resistance and outlined why I believe $7,770 - $8,150 will be a great area to build a short. Since then we have shown weakness as the price failed to rally through $6,800. Today we will be checking to see if it still looks like the rally can get to $7,700+ as well as going over the reasons why I am staying out of the market while waiting for further development. The Ichimoku Cloud on the 4 hour chart just had a kumo breakout , combined with a bullish TK cross and a bullish kumo twist . Please note: I have not found the 4 hour cloud to be reliable enough to trade by itself, if that was on the daily chart I would open a long. The 50 and 200 period MA ’s on the 4 hour chart are posturing for a golden cross . The price is finding resistance at the 200 MA while the 50 MA postures upward. This is similar to what Bollinger Bands illustrate. The price getting squeezed in between the two MA’s before crossing over is a very bullish indicator for the short term (1-2 weeks). The last time those crossed was on 4/18. Before the moving averages can cross on higher time frames they must first do so on lower time frames. Therefore we would expect the 1 hour, 2 hour and 3 hour charts to crossover before the 4 hour. As you can see below the shorter time frames have already fallen in line. The Bollinger Band on the 4 hour chart is starting to tighten and indicates that some volatility is on the horizon. The Ichimoku Cloud on the 1 day and the 3 day are indicating oversold conditions and suggest that a return to equilibrium is imminent. That is due to the C-Clamp that is evident on the 3 day and widening on the daily. With so many bullish indicators it can be difficult to remain on the sidelines. I seriously considered opening a small long position on the 4 hour golden cross and adding to it on the daily 12 & 26 EMA crossover that is expected. While I do believe that this rally has enough legs to get back to $7,770 - $8,150 there are two specific reasons that are making me hold off from opening a long. The first is the visible range volume profile which shows resistance stacked up from here to $8,500. There are two basic rules to trading which apply here: 1) Trade with the trend 2) Buy support ($5,000) and sell resistance ($6,700 - $8,500) We are in a bear trend and we are under a ton of resistance. Therefore I am going to stay away from a long. The second reason which led me to this decision is the TD Sequential which is currently on a green 6 out of 9. That indicates that the entry was missed and this rally could coming to an end. Thank you for your time! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 129)Current Outlook 1-2 weeks: neutral-bullish 2 weeks - 12 months: bearish 1-2+ years: Super bullish Yesterday we went over the reasons why I changed my short term outlook to neutral/bullish for the next 1-2 weeks and today we will narrow in on how far this bounce can go. The last 4 hour candle challenged the resistance cluster at $6,724 and appears to have failed. Resistance came horizontally and from the 200 period MA . We briefly rallied through before getting shot back down below both points of resistance. The current candle is continuing the pullback and if it fails to support above $6,250 then this bounce will have likely run it’s course. While the 4 hour chart is looking fairly ugly, the higher time frames still look just fine. The rest of this post will be looking at the daily chart, which still shows plenty of room left to rally. The daily Ichimoku Cloud shows two key areas of resistance: the Kijun-sen at $7,845 and the bottom of the cloud at $8,045 The TD Sequential is showing a green 5 out of 9 with major resistance at $7,700 (green dotted). The Visible Range Volume Profile is showing resistance stacked up from here to $8,600 with $8,150 being the most significant. When multiple indicators are painting the same picture it is usually time to make a big bet. Building a short from $7,770 - $8,150 with stop loss at $8,650 looks like a really good position. Before than can happen we need to rally through $6,800 and $7,000 resistance. With how bearish this market has been that will be much easier said than done. If we create a new low below $6,250 then I will expect the drawdown to continue before we are able to retest the major areas of resistance outlined above. Thank you for reading and have a Happy Independence Day! Until next time drink responsibly, eat heartily, be social and smash the follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
No Clickbait: Bitcoin Weekly Overview The Weekly and Daily will be closing right around the time this is being published. Some of these charts are messy, but the indicators or trend lines are there for a reason, I am working on simplifying my charts. Looking for some signs of a bottom & there are a few that are slowly developing. Weekly (Above) We are on a red 6 with the T.D. sequential as can be seen on the chart above. The 7 opens right around now. I expect to get a full count to 9 with the 8 being a near perfect close above the 6th candle. (This week that just closed) The Stochastic is looking for a bottom and it may have found a temporary bottom for now. I expect a move upwards to move it out of oversold conditions but I also expect the move up to not pull us out of the current correction. The GMMA (Guppy Multiple Moving Average) shown above shows extreme conditions of being oversold. One thing to note, since the correction started this the first time we have seen the faster moving EMA's cross fully below our slower moving EMA's in red. The OBV (Above) is still higher than week of 3/26 low at $6,443, meaning if we look at the OBV like a sentiment indicator there is heavier buying at these support levels. However the 3 day and 1 day show a different story so I am just simply noting this. The C.M.F. (Above) shows a tad of positive pressure & doesn't really align with the OBV view that there is heavier buying at these levels. For now I take this as a sign the bottom is close but not in. Furthering my view that the bottom is not in is the RSI; I would like to see the RSI find a complete bottom before I feel comfortable that this cool down/correction is over. Conclusion I am looking for longs to be stacked over this week to further enforce my opinion that this is not the bottom, as this happens I believe we see some bullish moves to the dotted orange line (Chart is below) and potentially the pink line directly above it. After that I expect a drop to the first range seen in the green and blue box below. From there I am not ruling out that as the bottom as I am seeing some decent signs that are characteristic of a bottom already. However I will approach that decision when we rest there and the market has more data around there. As for now my outlook still remains the same from past ideas I have published, when the data changes I will adjust my viewpoint. I trade off of what I see, not what I am hoping for. See the idea I published from May 28th titled "Bitcoin Analysis: Weekly Bearish TK Cross & Full Trend Overview" for a cleaner overview of that price range. Turning on the Heikin Ashi candles below to get a full view of our current trend, I don't believe this is a market who has found its bottom , it is much more reasonable to assume the 78% fib will be our ending point. Also note: We sit at the top of the Kumo on the weekly. Anything below $4,000 I think we see some serious shifts in the market that are indicative of major manipulation. So far this entire correction seems natural in structure. I do believe it is possible to find a bottom before we ever dip below $5,000, but as of now this is what I see. I am doing a live seminar the 26th that can be watched in person in Florida or online, if you would like details on that please check the pinned tweet on my twitter or message me for details. Thank you for reading and please support by clicking like on this analysis. Like, follow, share and interact to help me stay motivated to keep these trending. Thank You!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Nick_Core
115
Will a historical pattern once again offer support for XMR?BITTREX:XMRBTC finds itself in a similar spot as the last few times it found a bottom (see clouds). BITTREX:XMRBTC very rarely makes it to a completed "TD Buy Set UP" for the weekly time frame. In fact, it has historically bottomed in week 7 (which we're in currently) just as it makes a bearish fall beneath the 50MA. The last 2 weekly 7s (had you bought the bottom) returned 200% and 250% respectively from top to bottom. Below is a snapshot of the same chart for daily time frame. If you look closely...you'll see that each of the clouds (weekly 6/7 bottoms) contain completed daily TDBuy Set Ups. What did Monero just complete a couple days ago? A TDBuy Set Up. www.tradethe9s.com
XLong
by Duffy08
9s Galore on SPXSP:SPX @ critical level on weekly chart while also flashing a Weekly TD ell Set Up. If orange line (last top) fails to be taken out this week (weekly 9) then at least a short-term correction likely. Daily chart below shows how a completed Sell Set-Up failed to take out the orange line so far this week with today on watch for a color flip to a red 1 on the Daily. Should yesterday's high hold through tomorrow's close...I'll return to this post with potential downside scenarios. www.tradethe9s.com
SP:SPXShort
by Duffy08
2
NEO trading at major support With BTC falling for the past month and half we've seen alts absolutely slaughtered. Although it can be risky, I like these times for beginning to build positions in some of the more mature, stable alt-coins that I like. Things I like looking for 1) 50%+ retraces against BTC 2) 80%+ retraces in fiat value 3) TDBuy Signals NEO is @ the top of such a list and pops for all 3 of the aforementioned Buy signals. don't want to go into its fundamentals with this post but a huge benefit to owning NEO (particularly during Bear markets) is that you get paid a dividend(GAS) just for keeping it in the correct wallets. NEO trading near major historical support on both it's USD chart ($32ish) and its BTC chart. It just recently passed 80% retrace of its ATH in USD pricing and 60% + its BTC equivalent. We're trading at levels not seen since before the December 2017 Mania. Recently completed a Perfected TDBuy SetUp on the daily chart for NEO/BTC and the few days since have failed to make new lows...just shows that NEO (like a handful of other stable alts) are really trying to carve out a bottom here (and should as long as BTC doesn't capitulate). Key price levels to watch in my head. 32$ Support (now). 38-39.50$ should provide some resistance on bounces now....50$ Will become major resistance on next rally up. Below 16$ is death (I will be a buyer all the way to this level but I don't expect us to get there unless we see $3,000 Bitcoin). We haven't been below that level since last fall when everyone in crypto thought China would be banishing and abolishing all things crypto (NEO is biggest crypto started in China so far). Want to know all the Coins trading on T D 9s and 13s? Check us out below: www.tradethe9s.com
Long
by Duffy08
Wyckoff Hopium for BitcoinHey guys, I've seen a similar Wyckoff sketch for BITFINEX:BTCUSD on twitter recently and I thought I'd draw it out for myself(while adding what I suspect to be yet another Bull-Trap to end it) and try and get some feedback from people who are more familiar with this pattern than myself. I've been buying in the low 6000s all week so I certainly want to know if there are holes in this theory since it's one of just a few reasons I find myself a buyer this week (maybe I'll go into the other reasons later or on another Post). The Biggest question for me is has the "spring" happened yet? I lean towards it already having happened (was a very quick panic dump once the "triple bottom" (higher highs) was violated in the $6,400 region. if YES....Then Bitcoin should continue a slow bounce to 7k-7300 region and then be thrown back towards the 6500-6600$ region which will support another rally passed 7500$. If NO.....Bitcoin will continue this weak rally and be thrown back by $6,900 towards 6K. HERE is where a logical spring to really match the Wyckoff pattern could take place. Any sort of pierce below 6k should send panic / trigger stops. BUT...right under 6k is the prior mammoth support that held price up during the "BCASH is the real Bitcoin" slide back in Fall of 2017 (Thanks Senor Ver ;] ). A big wick and close back above 6k is likely I think. I'll keep this post updated as we reach certain levels but off the top of my head some safer ways to place this include: 1) once $7,300 is decisively broken...ride it LONG to $8,500 (should be nothing in between those levels). 2) once $8,500 is decisively broken...all aboard and enjoy the swift, rocky ride to $16kish BTC. 3) on the short side...build a short anywhere from $6,900-$7,300 as there will most definitely be some amount of throwback regardless of the scenarios (tons of doubt and complacency in this market as people wait around to "Buy The Dip". Check out our other Blog Posts and tools related to TD Sequential @ www.tradethe9s.com
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Duffy08
Close / Trading on June 17 below 6302 = Good SignAssuming we see a close today below 6450 we are setup tomorrow to see a slight pullback on lower Sunday trading volume (as is the current trend for weeks). If we see tomorrow's close below 6302 we are in a nice territory to see a reversal next week to kick off at least a 1 to 4 day of slight upward momentum before the market decides to pull back further or make a true reversal. I'd think we'll see at least a few days of positive movement to kick off our week given our current trading environment. If we only see a 1 candle correction to the upside before a further continuation down, I'd expect another possible push down into the 5000's to end next week. Upon which I'll be increasing my positions.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by magnus_turing
(CLICKBAIT) Bitcoin Overview & Analysis: June 12th, 2018 This is very long but I would like to be thorough in this analysis, so stay with me. I warned throughout that the entire bounce off of support that the rally was not healthy and a breakdown needs to occur. We got the breakdown right out of the symmetrical triangle that has formed over the last several months. What IS healthy is this breakdown , I would rather see moves like this instead of a unhealthy rally delaying the inevitable. Corrections are good in order for a market to remain sustainable, keep in mind this is good for Bitcoin and when we find our bottom we will come out of it stronger than last years parabolic trend. I urge you to read my past analysis published here to get an understanding of our markets path. Weekly Overview (Above) Looking here on the weekly, I have Heikin Ashi turned on above to get a clear view of the trend. Below I have our traditional candles on with the T.D. sequential. (See my past educational pieces on using the T.D. linked below) I am watching for a full or near full 1-9 count on this current trend before a reversal. However, finding a bottom here temporarily is not out of the question this week. That being said we are not out of the woods until confirmation of a real bull trend on the daily kumo break. If we drop below the weekly kumo then the market structure has changed and we have a different story. The weekly is showing a Bullish Divergence on the OBV (On Balance Volume) & the Stochastic is near bottomed. The C.M.F. is still showing slight negative pressure, I wouldn't do too much reading into the weekly indicators though. In the world of crypto trading, the weekly indicators often correct from our smaller time frames; I do take note of them though. The GMMA (Guppy Multiple Moving Average) shows me that we are in a oversold area below our EMA's, but that the bear trend is still strong. 3 Day Overview (Below) There is a slight Bullish divergence showing on the OBV, not much but it is there for now. Daily Overview (Below) Bullish divergence on the OBV is present on the daily also. The C.M.F. has finally showed some positive pressure, this is good do to the fact we haven't seen this since late May. The RSI & STOCH are quickly looking for a bottom. However be aware of false bottoms on the STOCH as can be seen from May 12th through the 28th. 12 Hour Overview (Below) The T.D. Sequential gave us a 9 buy signal. However, it is not a perfect setup as the 9th candle did not close below the 7th candle. I like the 9th above or below (depending on trend) the 7th & the 8th above or below the 6th. In this case we got the 8th below the 6th but not the below the 7th. The Stochastic here appears to need more room to bottom. I would've like to see the settle a bit more here instead of pushing up at support with very little movement. It is not too worrisome but this signals to me typically that we have some unhealthy attempts at a rally.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Nick_Core
102
Text Bitcoin Analysis: June 5th, 2018In today's analysis I will be taking issues and indicator signals I see on various time frames. As detailed in my last analysis: "I foresee a small drop short term & then another minor unsustainable rally that ultimately leads to our retest of support levels throughout the next 3 days." Results So where are we at? Daily (Main chart) Kijun-sen (Base Line in pink) continues to distance itself from price action & the Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line in orange), there is nothing to trade from this but as it distances itself trades will come to fruition. Seen below sell pressure continues to be heavy on the C.M.F. 12 Hour (Below) The only thing I want to point out here is that the OBV is at dangerous levels in relation to its previous support touches and current price action. 6 Hour (Below) Take a look at the Tom Demark Sequential. We had a near perfect TD Sell Setup, the only reason why I say near perfect is due to the fact the 9th candle's high was not above the 7th candle's high. The 8th was above the 6th but in order for me to feel really comfortable about a setup I need to see the highs of candle's 8 & 9 be greater than the highs of candle's 6 and 7. Either way there was plenty of other signals notifying a trend reversal including the C.M.F. showing a divergence then. Currently we see a C.M.F. with slowly subsiding sell pressure as we find some support on this time frame. The Stochastic is priming to make a Bullish move, however I still feel it will be short lived. The OBV appears confluent for the most part. Lets examine smaller time frames. 4 Hour (Below) There is a lot going on here so stay with me, Ill try not to indicator spam here. We see a red 9 on the T.D. Sequential two candles prior indicating a trend reversal indicating a Buy Setup. The T.D. Buy Countdown started there on the 9 at 1, I am looking for a a few candles of positive momentum and watching closely for a TD Combo in the future. I will cover what that is hopefully soon in a new educational idea. The GMMA (Guppy Multiple Moving Average) shows a Bullish shift on the top chart below. The second chart below we see that price action settled Kijun-sen (Base Line in pink) & stopped at the Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line in orange). The Bollinger Bands also show us resting on the median. 2 Hour (Below) Notable here is that the OBV is showing a Bearish divergence on the last move. We also rest slightly below the 50 period Moving Average with the 200 period closing in for a potential cross. 30 Minute (Below) Expanding the 30 minute (First one below) to appear more pronounced then normal we see the GMMA entering Bullish but also into overbought. Below that we see a nice Buy Setup on the T.D. Sequential 4 candles prior. The RSI appears just about capped with price action well out of the Bollinger Bands, also a T.K. cross is incoming on the Ichimoku.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Nick_Core
40
Bitcoin Analysis: No clickbait.Jumping right into this... I am going to start with the daily. Then jump to the weekly and continue my analysis down the time frames. Daily Overview Shown above on the Daily, I have the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) setup with a few tweaks to color schemes. My only reason to pull it up is to show our trend off of the support, as we go down the time frames we will take a closer examination of the trend. The Guppy Multiple Moving Average implements 12 different exponential moving averages (EMA's) in an effort to analyze a market’s behavior on multiple levels. We see the faster moving EMA's (green and yellow) converging on the slower moving EMA's (red & orange) indicating a Bullish move based on this strategy only. The RSI matched the trend shift on the GMMA. The C.M.F. however still shows a heavy sell presence. Weekly Overview Jumping out of order to the Weekly below, there are a few things I want to point out below. We currently sit right below the 50 period Moving Average. The weekly closes in 6 hours as of this writing. A close below the 50 M.A. is not a ideal scenario for a bull run. The Bearish Kijun-sen/Tenkan-sen cross (T.K. cross) shown in the yellow circle will not reverse anytime soon. The conversion line has inputs 20 candles back and has nothing but more room to drop. One thing I am noting is, I expect to see a cloud twist plotted on the weekly here shortly. 12 Hour Overview On the two charts below, we see the GMMA crossing bullish. However, we also see the price action at the top of our Bollinger Bands indicating an overbought scenario. The Stochastic also shows as overbought situation indicating a drop for 6-12 candles may be incoming. Please note that even with the STOCH showing this, our strongest moves in the market come when this is in overbought levels. The Bullish signal from the GMMA can be confirmed in a sense by the STOCH being at such extreme levels, but also can be declared Bearish since we see the crossover and have a capped B.B. with a bearish candle formation. 6 Hour Overview Few things to note here: The Tom Demark Sequential shows us a clear green 9 indicating an exhaustion & trend reversal. B.B. again are capped and the STOCH is showing a slight Bearish divergence. The C.M.F. did show a nice increase in buy pressure for that rally but is now subsiding. 1 Hour Overview Stoch & the C.M.F. show a Bearish divergence, the O.B.V. (not shown) appears healthy. 15 Minute Overview As I am writing this we saw a tad of a sell off. Jumping down to the 15 minute we see the GMMA cross bearish as the market begins to fix the overbought scenarios we are seeing. On the Ichimoku, we see a T.K. cross indicating a Bearish move (which we are now seeing). Keep in mind this is a small time frame.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Nick_Core
64
GBPUSD Trendline, Ichi, and Tom Demark AnalysisI believe there will be a trend reversal to bullish on GBPUSD. Factors: TD 13 countdown completed on the daily chart, signaling trend exhaustion. Price is finding support on previous resistance (green) and horizontal trend line. Daily RSI is bottomed Weekly is on a 7 count, so if bear trend continues after the next two weeks reversal or consolidation expected Weekly also found support on kumo cloud. Monthly is about to finish the first bar of pullback after a completed TD sell setup
Long
by chives152
Bitcoin Analysis: Imperative MomentI try to keep my charts clean & I realize the chart above looks messy, so bear with me. As mentioned in my previous idea from May 24th (See links below in related ideas) I am watching the weekly to see if we close above the 50 period Moving Average. I also mentioned that the Kijun-sen (Base Line in pink) & Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line in orange) are converging into a bearish T.K. cross. I had detailed that if the weekly does not cross back above the 50 period Moving Average I expect to see a very bearish outlook & that a T.K. cross would happen. We currently sit slightly below the 50 period Moving Average as of this time of writing. 29 hours to go as of this writing. Keep an eye on it, I do not expect the sell off to be instant but it is something to watch very closely. That being said... Daily Overview As seen above on the Daily Bitstamp we now have a similar situation with the Kijun-sen (Base Line) & Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line) converging to create a bearish T.K. cross. Considering price action is below the Kumo this would be a very Bearish signal. Last time this happened on March 26th we essentially had a $2,000 sell of from $8,400 to $6,400, the sell off began before it crossed, keep that in mind. There has been a few mixed results in the past from the daily T.K. cross but generally we sell off extremely hard just prior. I would show examples but I don't want to spam this analysis with it, set your Ichimoku settings at 20,60,120,30 and take a look at prior moves. Bollinger Bands on the daily are bottomed, but that is becoming more & more unreliable as an indicator in crypto. The Tom Demark sequential doesn't tell us much here other than a Bearish trend is still in movement. I left additional indicators off of the chart above since it already seems overloaded, but nothing really notable here other than the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index appear to be reacting to the 3 past candles holding steady and are trending upwards now. The Chaikin Money Flow still shows heavy sell pressure, however it has ticked up just slightly showing a miniscule relief in sell pressure. 6 Hour Overview Below As mentioned previously in another publication here when the 6 hours RSI has reached the levels seen on May 23rd we typically have had a large bump in price. At this time there are a few different conditions to note of from prior RSI bottoms: Sell pressure is a lot heavier and we were bottomed much lower as far as price action is concerned. Something to take into account though as all this transpires. As on the Daily we are seeing a slight decrease in sell pressure but it generally aligns so far with the price action within the continuation pattern. 1 Hour Overview Below Bulls are keeping this right at the top of our rough symmetrical triangle. If we keep testing this resistance we will need to see more buy pressure to break out. Again everything depends on actual supply and demand, Volume analysis allows you to gauge this, many analysts take familiar patterns and signals without checking to see where Volume is at, they then base a trade on past or recognizable patterns, this an error on there part as we need actual volume to break bullish unless there is the supply is limited of the underlying asset, in this case it is not. The hourly Kumo sits right above price current levels. We also had a bearish T.K. cross that transpired 3 hours ago.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Nick_Core
75
Bitcoin Analysis: Weekly Bearish TK Cross & Full Trend Overview First off let me say I am not a fan of Elliott Waves, now I know some traders rely solely on E.W. but as time goes on and they gain more experience those analysts will eventually come to the same conclusion as I have. Elliott Waves are subjective , I rely on very little wave analysis, I do take it into account, but I never base a trade solely on them. That being said if Elliott Waves were exact we still have another leg down in our corrective trend, these are roughly placed as Bitcoin's nature does not always fit into E.W. theory. Honestly I am not satisfied with the placement of the end of wave A as its placement changes many factors. Please realize this is not something to rely on as a predictive method. The rules of Elliott's are exact in some sense but at the same time they are not, before all the Elliott Wave maximalists start huffing & puffing, keep in mind Elliott Waves are typically recognized after they have passed. Please see articles like this to understand my experience with them: forextradingstrategies4u.com That is all on Elliott Waves for now, I may do a tutorial on them once I do some more important educational lessons. Weekly Overview (above) As mentioned prior in several of my past ideas, if we close below the 50 period Moving Average then we are due for another leg down. We closed below it yesterday and also saw the Tenkan-Sen cross the Kijun-Sen creating a Bearish T.K. Cross . The last time this happened was in May of 2014. At the time we were at $650 & ended up dipping to $150, the market was a completely different market then and the amount of attention on Bitcoin from the rest of the world cannot even be compared. My point is, it has been awhile. This is useful to know because we are almost repeating that time frame exactly, we crossed during the C drive down, the difference was then we had some major bearish catalysts that affected the entire market and created a sense of panic. There is panic now but that C drive down ultimately went too far down into oversold territory due to different circumstances. Daily Overview (below) On the chart below we see a converging T.K. Cross below the Kumo . Again this is a bearish signal , the sell off is not typically instant however there has been time when it has. We also see where I have placed support zones as a guide. As we approach each one of those I will be watching Volume and Momentum indicators to see if we end up shortening the C drive down. Those areas will have clearer signals of a bounce (or not) as we approach them. Seen below on the second chart is a side by side comparison with the O.B.V. showing unhealthy levels. To be clear, this does NOT need to match the past price posted at that level. On Balance Volume is primarily used to confirm or identify overall price trends or to anticipate price movements after divergences. One thing to note is that some traders saw the O.B.V. trend being broken last month and assumed that was a Bullish signal of a trend reversal, the error made there by them was that pop out was simply the signalling of the B drive if we are following Elliott Waves. The T.D. sequential shows us on a red 7 on the daily (not visible because it is not zoomed in). 12 Hour Overview (below) The Chaikin Money Flow shows heavy sell pressure , there is nothing more noteworthy on this time frame . 6 Hour Overview (below) I am keeping eye on the RSI Bullish divergence here, I will update if I see some action on the RSI as this continues to form. Again volume can set this to align if sell pressure continues. .
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Nick_Core
79
Tom Demark Sequential - T.D. Sequential Tom Demark Sequential - T.D. Sequential For the sake of not overloading you, I will cover the basics of the T.D. setup and a more advanced understanding of the T.D. countdown at a later time. This is very basic level understanding of the Tom Demark Sequential, once I have the second portion finished in a few days I will do another to cover trading strategies with the T.D. 1. Introduction 2. Terminology 3. Example 4. Conclusion 1. Introduction The Tom Demark sequential is a great tool used by many traders. However, it is a complex indicator to trade with that uses simple calculations. The T.D. is an exhaustion cycle indicator that identifies trend reversal using exhaustion points numbered 1-9 with 9 being the potential exhaustion point and reversal of a trend. The Tom Demark Sequential consists of two components. T.D. Setup is the first one and it is a prerequisite for the T.D. Countdown – the second component. T.D. Setup compares the current close with the corresponding close four bars earlier. There must be nine consecutive closes higher/lower than the close four bars earlier. The Tom Demark Sequential can be found in TradingView by searching within indicators like so: imgur.com 2. Terminology Bearish Price Flip - occurs when the market records a Close greater than the Close four bars earlier, immediately followed by a Close less than the Close four bars earlier. Bullish Price Flip - occurs when the market records a Close less than the Close four bars before, immediately followed by a Close greater than the close four bars earlier. T.D. Buy Setup - bearish price flip, which indicates a switch from positive to negative momentum. - After a bearish price flip, there must be nine consecutive closes, each one less than the corresponding close four bars earlier. - Cancellation - If at any point, a bar closes higher than the close four bars earlier the setup is canceled and we are waiting for another price flip - Setup perfection – the low of bars 8 or 9 should be lower than the low of bar 6 and bar 7 (if not satisfied, expect new low/retest of the low). T.D. Sell Setup - prerequisite is a bullish price flip, which indicates a switch from negative to positive momentum. - After a bullish price flip, there must be nine consecutive closes, each one higher than the corresponding close four bars earlier. - Cancellation - If at any point a bar closes lower than the Close four bars earlier, the setup is canceled and we are waiting for another price flip - Setup perfection – the high of bars 8 or 9 should be greater than the high of bar 6 and bar 7 (if not satisfied, expect new high/retest of the high). 3. Example The chart above is Bitcoin on a 6 hour time frame with Heikin-Ashi candles (I will explain why in a later post). The T.D. is far more accurate on higher time frames. It can be used on lower time frames for entry and exits. However, I have found that precise entry and exit targets are best found with other indicators. I typically see the most accuracy with the T.D. on a 4 hour time frame or higher. Noted on the chart is several Buy/Sell setups in addition to failed setups. The reason I am using such a poor example of the T.D. is I want to impress upon you the dangers of using only one indicator when making decisions. Not every indicator is 100% accurate. As good and intelligent practice, you should always use the T.D. with additional data.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Nick_Core
36