TECH
Snowflake, Inc. $SNOW reaches pattern target, partial exitSnowflake is a cloud computing-based data warehousing company based in Montana, named after the founders' love for winter sports. I like winter sports, and the ticker SNOW is aesthetically appealing in my portfolio.
The trade setup was straightforward. The company IPO'd in 2020 at $220, and after one quarter that saw investors take price up above $400 per share, all post-IPO gains were given back by mid-2021, and price got down to as low as $180.
Between March - July 2021, $SNOW formed an inverted Head and Shoulders bottom, reflected by the blue curved drawings - a left shoulder, a "head", and a right shoulder. Once price broke above the pattern boundary, I reached a measured target of $320 by applying the width of the pattern (from $180 to $250, or $70) to the breakout level of $250.
$70 + $250 = $320
This measurement criteria is based on the works of John Magee and Robert D. Edwards in Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (5th edition, 1948).
My stop-loss, the "Last Day Rule", and my limit order placement is based on teachings from my friend and active trading legend Peter L. Brandt (Diary of A Professional Commodity Trader, @PeterLBrandt).
I've now covered 3/4 of this position for a gain of 28% (70/250).
My maximum risk, assuming my stop loss order filled peacefully at its activation price was only 4% (10/250).
The risk to reward setup at the time of entry was then (4%) to 28%, or 1 to 7.
Snowflake is probably in line for further price gains, but I have no reason to believe I have an edge at these levels.
NQ - 15480 TargetThe unwind in Tech - slower than the ES/YM.
Typical, as the NQ volatility increases and we move
into EPS lower guidance and warnings (growing increasingly
abundant) the Big Tuna aka AAPL remains the guarded
Instrument.
157.50 Calls continue to print, in excess 1 Million, so they
will game it for all its worth as the ABCs of the widely held
continue to SELL.
Chopping along for now, the break of 15500 will set this in
motion quickly.
LABD break outI have been tackling LABD/LABU day in and day out. I have somehow made some profit week by week. I am trying to figure out which was the better trade as I think it has come to the tipping point. I believe LABD is the winner. I see bearish sentiment in the short term market and I see an inverse head and shoulders or a cup and handle formation. On LABU I confirmed it because whichever way I look at it it is the opposite, head and shoudler pattern, inverse cup and handle.
$GOOGL | TRADE IDEAAnother prime short contender that can see nice downside potential IF market weakness accelerates. Simple longterm bullish channel that has held since last year. Notice every time we reach the red region, we see some sort of pullback either back to the median (white line) or support (green line). I have a small short position as a hedge to the overall bull market. Play cautiously and good luck out there!
$AMZN | TRADE IDEAWith markets looking really shaky into close today, Amazon looks like a prime contender for a pullback. Lines up nicely with the daily reversal candle and anticipated EWT wave 2 pullback. As long as the high holds here, expecting a move down to my fibonacci box zone shown. Be cautious if you're long.
Tech Stock SingularityThe Tech Stock Singularity will be the growth acceleration of tech stocks as technology accelerates development, but it will be far greater than the Dot-com bubble because artificial intelligence will demand more technology and resources to support its accelerating growth.
For example, Google makes its own chips and buys energy companies to support its growing cloud facilities. Eventually, Google might buy all of its supporting companies. Amazon buys planes, trucks and warehouses, and increasingly owns more real estate and more resources.
Demand will increase explosively when technology makes "babies" of new AI and each is trying to grow faster than the rest because the AI race is a game of win or die.
Let's get into some stock trades #1 - SquareHas been consolidating for quite some time after a big move up. Clearly it's trend is still up with tons of upside left. Square is a pretty revolutionary company and it is definitely feeding of the banking sector. Not much to say about it other than the chart is looking great. Might take a little time to take off because of the way the chart is structured, but I doubt this huge consolidation is distribution and not re-accumulation
VMWARE MONTHLY AMAZING HEAD AND SHOULDERSVMware, Inc. is an American cloud computing and virtualization technology company headquartered in California. VMware was the first commercially successful company to virtualize the x86 architecture. Excellent bullish break of a head and shoulders on a monthly timeframe that can be used as an entry point on this asset.
$AAPL -- A look at two timeframes using Elliot WavesEven though my exact count may be wrong, the structure of these waves has me feeling pretty confident about $AAPL's upcoming price action. Strong buy at 145. September monthlies, ATM and ITM should print.
Let's see how it plays out...
Sincerely,
Your best stock buddy in the whole world,
Patrick.
$TSLA | WEEKLY WATCHLIST (Update)This is a more in-depth analysis on what I'm seeing for Tesla. I will be using the Bump and Run Reversal Bottom Pattern for this analysis.
Please view the thread for an understanding of the model I will be referring to.
I believe we have finished the Lead-in Phase and currently in the final part of the Bump Phase. We should see a small retracement which will be buyable to hit my concluding sub-wave 3 target. Next, a throwback to trend line should take place to retest broken resistance before accelerating higher in the Uphill Run phase. All parts have been labeled and the green arrowed line shows my rough projection. Looking for new highs in September to potentially test the high $780-800 region.