🚨 NASDAQ: BIG Day for Tech-Heavy Index 📈🔥Hey Indices Traders! 🙌
The stock market is on the edge, and it's time to strategize. 🤔
📉 NASDAQ: Sitting at a major resistance of 14,646. Today's opening is a game-changer. Will it rebound or plummet? 🎢
📊 S&P 500: We've been short and it's paying off. The U.S. market opening is the moment of truth. It's a coin flip right now. 🪙
🤷♂️ Why Not Bitcoin?: While indices have their place, let's not forget Bitcoin—the smartphone to indices' feature phone. It's the asset of the future. 📱📞
🌍 Global Factors: With the Middle East situation, expect some volatility. Keep your options open. 🌐
🔮 Outlook: Indices are at a crossroads. Keep your eyes peeled and be ready to pivot. 🔄
That's the quick rundown! Stay alert and keep those charts up. 📈
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Tech100
NASDAQ-100 AND SP-500 NAVIGATING FRAGILE MARKETS- T-bills to be issued by the end of Q3 drain liquidity and have an impact similar to a 25 basis point increase in benchmark rates.
- Further market extension is challenging due to possible overtightening.
- Unemployment data is a significant turning point.
- Unsatisfactory market breadth.
- Significant divergence between Nasdaq and Treasury 2-year.
Hello everyone,
Today I present a couple of ideas regarding the fragility of the Nasdaq 100 and the consequences for the S&P 500.
Firstly, I want to remind you that once the US debt agreement is reached, approximately 1 trillion dollars' worth of short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) will enter the market by the end of Q3, resulting in an inevitable liquidity drain from the stock market. According to industry reports, this issuance of government bonds may act as an additional 25 basis point increase in Fed rates. Furthermore, following the bank failures in recent months, we can expect further deterioration in the credit market, also comparable to a 25 basis point increase in Fed rates.
This leads us to a potential overtightening by the Fed due to the indirect rate increase described above. It will, therefore, be challenging for the markets to grow solidly due to the likely resulting economic contraction. Additionally, recent reports indicate that inflation is decreasing less than expected, and further rate increases by the Fed may be necessary, as dictated by their econometric models.
The unemployment data for this week will be crucial. If it indicates a potential rise in unemployment, we may see a pause in rate hikes, thus mitigating the possibility of a sustained market collapse in the short term. Otherwise, further credit tightening will be necessary, which will have a negative impact on the markets. If another Fed rate hike materializes, we could witness the liquidation of long positions built over time based on optimism about potential rate cuts at the end of the year. Without a year-end rate cut, the possibility of a credit squeeze continuing into 2024 arises, which would be detrimental to heavily indebted companies that will have to consider refinancing ongoing operations at much higher than expected rates. This will have a negative impact on future corporate profits.
We now observe the deterioration in the breadth of the index, displaying a negative divergence with three descending peaks. For the tech rally to continue, we will need further advances in AI-related stocks, the last line of defense before a correction (in the chart, market breadth is indicated in gray, calculated as the percentage of stocks above their 200-period moving average).
Finally, I would like to mention the significant divergence between the 2-year Treasury and the Nasdaq-100 since the beginning of May (in the chart, the 2-year Treasury is represented in cyan, with the axis inverted). I believe that this divergence will be corrected, but since a reduction in 2-year Treasury yields is unlikely, the possibility of a correction in the index remains.
Nice trading,
Cheers
Potential bull flag on the Nasdaq 100 (NDX)The Nasdaq is holding above the February high and forming a potential bull flag pattern, which projects an approximate target around 13,500. A larger flag pattern also remains in play with a target just below 14,000, although the October high and monthly R1 around 13700 provide a likely resistance area. The daily trend is respecting the 10 and 20-day EMA's and the structure favours a break of last week's high.
- Bulls could seek bullish setups around current levels in anticipation of a break higher, or around the monthly pivot point should we see a deeper pullback and invalidation of the smaller flag.
- The bias remains bullish above the monthly pivot
- Targets include the resistance clusters around 13,500 and 14,000
US deposits safe? Don’t bank on it Nasdaq bullsSentiment on Wall Street took a turn for the worse by yesterday's close. Janet Yellen conceded that she has not considered a "blanket insurance" for US banking deposits, and Jerome Powell pushed back on any hopes of rate cuts from the Fed this year.
The Nasdaq 100 came close to reaching out 13k target before momentum reversed sharply lower, closing the day with a bearish outside / engulfing candle. It also saw a false break of the prior cycle high and clos back beneath the upper bollinger band, with a bearish divergence on the RSI (2).
- The bias is for prices to mean revert towards 12,230 / 20-day MA, with 12k and the March lows also contenders for bearish targets.
- The bias remains bearish below 13k, but yesterday's high can also be used is a tighter approach to risk management is required.
A bullish case for the Nasdaq 100The weekly timeframe has been slowly developing a bullish structure. The retracement from the all-time high stalled at a 61.8% Fibonacci ratio (from the pandemic low), and prices have since rallied to trade above the previous cycle high. OBV (on balance volume) is also confirming price action high. A recent pullback from the March high has stabilised above the 200-week MA and a small bullish candle formed last week.
The daily chart shows an ABC correction which was completed with a bullish engulfing candle. Prices rose above the 20, 50, 100 and 200-EMA's and now pulled back to gap support. Given the Nasdaq has only fallen -0.6% this week despite the negative sentiment from potential Fed Hikes, it is holding up pretty well. SO if sentiment improves, the Nasdaq may go on to outperform its Wall Street peers.
- The remains bullish above the 11,830 low and for a retest of the 12,880 highs
- If prices can hold above gap support, bulls could consider tighter risk management
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Sell off to continue on NASDAQ?Trade Idea: Selling NASDAQ
Reasoning: Sell off to continue on NASDAQ?
Entry Level: 12012
Take Profit Level: 11615
Stop Loss: 12144
Risk/Reward: 2.95:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Further downside is expected on NAS100USDNAS100USD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 12694 (stop at 12973)
The medium term bias remains bearish. Trading within a Bearish Channel formation. We are assessed to be in a corrective mode higher. Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 12800, resulting in improved risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 12009 and 11800
Resistance: 12800 / 13600 / 15200
Support: 12000 / 11000 / 10000
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Joe Gun2Head Trade - NASDAQ rally run its course?Trade Idea: Selling NASDAQ
Reasoning: Has the rally run its course?
Entry Level: 13420
Take Profit Level: 13088
Stop Loss: 13512
Risk/Reward: 3.58:1
D isclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses . There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
NASDAQ price expected to stallNASDAQ - Intraday - We look to Sell at 12094 (stop at 12252)
Following yesterday's bearish candle, the overall trend lower looks set to continue today. We are assessed to be in a corrective mode higher. Prices expected to stall near trend line resistance. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 11707 and 11600
Resistance: 12000 / 12970 / 13600
Support: 11700 / 11200 / 10500
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Short term NASDAQ recovery?Trade Idea: Buying NASDAQ
Reasoning: Short term bottom and potential bullish flag
Entry Level: 11822
Take Profit Level: 12297
Stop Loss: 11666
Risk/Reward: 3.03:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Gap fill on NASDAQTrade Idea: NASDAQ
Reasoning: Gap fill on NASDAQ
Entry Level: 11797
Take Profit Level: 11035
Stop Loss: 11905
Risk/Reward: 6.83:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - NASDAQ Stalling at huge level (reiteration)Trade Idea: NASDAQ Stalling at huge level
Reasoning: NASDAQ has rallied into a huge level on the weekly chart
Entry Level: 12660
Take Profit Level: 12350
Stop Loss: 12767.2
Risk/Reward: 2.91:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - NASDAQ Stalling at huge levelTrade Idea: NASDAQ Stalling at huge level
Reasoning: NASDAQ has rallied into a huge level on the weekly chart
Entry Level: 12670
Take Profit Level: 12345
Stop Loss: 12784
Risk/Reward: 2.84:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
NAS100 l DAILY l SIGNALSLooking back at May 16th, May 22nd, & May 25th TA that was sent on NAS100 the following was stated:
MAY 16th
“On Friday we saw a break through downtrend trendline. NAS100 broke back into major zone 12200 - 12450. But once again rejected off BOS area.
What we see / need to see:
1. NAS100 is still overall bearish and needs to break above 200 EMA .
2. NAS100 formed solid prices action support off bottom of major zone 12200 (Circled).
3. NAS100 need to break through BOS 12550 and form a higher low.”
MAY 22ND
DAILY TAKEAWAYS:
1. NAS100 rejected off of BOS zone 12550 for 6th time in the matter of three weeks.
2. NAS100 broke and is retesting major area 11750.
3. Need to see next couple 4 hourly candles engulf and break BOS at 12050.
4. Need to see retest of 12050 if broken and then another BOS 12550 needs to be broken and retested.
5. 12550 zone has been a major zone of rejection for the past two weeks.
MAY 25th
DAILY TAKEAWAYS:
1. NAS100 broke down and retested major zone 11750 for the third time.
2. 12050 is still the must break zone / rejection zone.
3. Still way under 200 MA and very bearish but 11750 zone has provided sustainable support.
TODAYS TAKEAWAYS:
1. NAS100 rejected off 200 MA after breaking through key level 12750
2. Next major zone if retest of 12750 is made is 13050 - 13450
3. BOS level that caused major bearish movement is at 13550
NAS100 l DAILY l OUTLOOKLooking back at May 16th & May 22nd TA that was sent on NAS100 the following was stated:
MAY 16th
“On Friday we saw a break through downtrend trendline. NAS100 broke back into major zone 12200 - 12450. But once again rejected off BOS area.
What we see / need to see:
1. NAS100 is still overall bearish and needs to break above 200 EMA .
2. NAS100 formed solid prices action support off bottom of major zone 12200 (Circled).
3. NAS100 need to break through BOS 12550 and form a higher low.”
MAY 22ND
DAILY TAKEAWAYS:
1. NAS100 rejected off of BOS zone 12550 for 6th time in the matter of three weeks.
2. NAS100 broke and is retesting major area 11750.
3. Need to see next couple 4 hourly candles engulf and break BOS at 12050.
4. Need to see retest of 12050 if broken and then another BOS 12550 needs to be broken and retested.
5. 12550 zone has been a major zone of rejection for the past two weeks.
MAY 25th
DAILY TAKEAWAYS:
1. NAS100 broke down and retested major zone 11750 for the third time.
2. 12050 is still the must break zone / rejection zone.
3. Still way under 200 MA and very bearish but 11750 zone has provided sustainable support.
NAS100 l DAILY l OUTLOOKLooking back at May 16th TA that was sent on NAS100 the following was stated:
“On Friday we saw a break through downtrend trendline. NAS100 broke back into major zone 12200 - 12450. But once again rejected off BOS area.
What we see / need to see:
1. NAS100 is still overall bearish and needs to break above 200 EMA .
2. NAS100 formed solid prices action support off bottom of major zone 12200 (Circled).
3. NAS100 need to break through BOS 12550 and form a higher low.”
DAILY TAKEAWAYS:
1. NAS100 rejected off of BOS zone 12550 for 6th time in the matter of three weeks.
2. NAS100 broke and is retesting major area 11750.
3. Need to see next couple 4 hourly candles engulf and break BOS at 12050.
4. Need to see retest of 12050 if broken and then another BOS 12550 needs to be broken and retested.
5. 12550 zone has been a major zone of rejection for the past two weeks.
US100 / NDQWe close this candle below the 786 and I think we visit lows before June.
Gap could fill before moving lower, scaling into QQQ 6/17 puts, $330-340 strike Friday.
If we gap up Monday will add provided upper trend line is in tact.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Selling the rally on NASDAQTrade Idea: Selling the rally on NASDAQ
Reasoning: Fading the gains made in yesterdays session.
Entry Level: 13425
Take Profit Level: 12715
Stop Loss: 13597
Risk/Reward: 4.12:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.