Technical-analysis
Short-term EURUSD ideaAfter yesterday's better than expected flash PMIs from Germany, we saw EURUSD finding some buying interest. Let's see if we can get a larger correction to the upside.
EASYMARKETS:EURUSD
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USD/JPY Forecast: Bullish Bias Expected – Key Factors to Watch.USD/JPY Forecast: Bullish Bias Expected – Key Factors to Watch (20/09/2024)
As we analyze the USD/JPY pair on 20/09/2024, the outlook appears to be slightly bullish for this week and next. Several key drivers are pushing the U.S. dollar higher against the Japanese yen, creating an attractive opportunity for traders. In this article, we’ll break down the fundamental factors behind this forecast and highlight the elements influencing USD/JPY price action in the coming days.
1. US Dollar Strength Bolsters USD/JPY
The strength of the U.S. dollar is a critical factor contributing to the bullish bias in USD/JPY. With the Federal Reserve signaling a commitment to maintaining high interest rates for an extended period, the greenback remains in demand. Fed officials have recently emphasized their concerns about persistent inflation, leading markets to believe that U.S. interest rates will stay elevated for longer than previously expected.
This hawkish monetary stance, coupled with strong economic data, has made the U.S. dollar more attractive to investors. As a result, USD/JPY has been moving higher, with the strong dollar likely to continue exerting upward pressure on the pair.
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2. Dovish Bank of Japan Keeps the Yen Weak
On the other side of the equation, the Japanese yen remains under pressure due to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ultra-loose monetary policy. The BoJ has shown no signs of tightening monetary policy in the near term, despite global inflationary trends. Japan’s central bank continues to prioritize economic support, maintaining low interest rates while avoiding any drastic policy shifts.
This dovish stance contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy, widening the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. This is a major driver of USD/JPY’s bullish outlook, as investors gravitate towards the higher-yielding U.S. dollar over the lower-yielding yen.
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3. Interest Rate Differentials Favor USD/JPY Upside
One of the most important factors pushing USD/JPY higher is the widening interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. While U.S. Treasury yields remain attractive, the yield on Japanese government bonds remains low due to the BoJ’s dovish policy stance. This gap in yields makes the U.S. dollar more appealing for investors seeking better returns.
The widening interest rate gap is a key bullish signal for USD/JPY, as capital continues to flow into U.S. dollar-denominated assets. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish tone, and the BoJ remains accommodative, this dynamic will likely support the bullish bias for USD/JPY.
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4. Japanese Economic Weakness Adding Pressure on the Yen
Another factor supporting the bullish bias for USD/JPY is the ongoing weakness in the Japanese economy. Japan has struggled with slow economic growth and weak inflation, further justifying the BoJ’s cautious approach to monetary policy. Domestic consumption remains low, and Japan’s economic recovery has been uneven.
As a result, the Japanese yen continues to face downside pressure, while the U.S. dollar benefits from stronger economic fundamentals. This divergence between the U.S. and Japanese economies adds to the case for a stronger USD/JPY in the coming weeks.
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5. USD/JPY Technical Analysis Suggests Further Upside Potential
From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY is showing signs of further upside. The pair has been testing key resistance levels, and if these levels are broken, we could see a more significant bullish move. The recent price action has shown strength, with USD/JPY consistently finding support at higher lows.
Traders should watch for a potential breakout above these resistance zones, as it could signal further gains for USD/JPY. With strong fundamentals supporting the pair, the technical outlook aligns with the overall bullish bias.
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Conclusion: Bullish Bias Expected for USD/JPY
In conclusion, several fundamental and technical factors support a slightly bullish bias for USD/JPY over the next couple of weeks. The ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar, the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan, favorable interest rate differentials, and Japan’s economic challenges all point towards further upside potential for USD/JPY.
Traders and investors should closely monitor these key drivers as they make their trading decisions. As always, staying updated on central bank policies, economic data, and technical signals will be crucial in navigating the USD/JPY price action during this period.
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USDJPY: Slight Bullish Bias This Week? (19/09/2024)As of September 19, 2024, traders are closely monitoring the USDJPY pair for potential bullish momentum. Several fundamental factors and market conditions indicate that the pair might see a slight upward bias this week. Let’s dive into the key drivers affecting the USDJPY price action.
1. Diverging Central Bank Policies
One of the primary influences on USDJPY is the monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
- Federal Reserve’s Stance: As we move into the week, the market expects the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance or at least keep interest rates elevated. Although there’s some speculation about a possible pause in future rate hikes, the Fed's priority remains controlling inflation. This higher interest rate environment in the US makes the US dollar more attractive, pushing USDJPY upwards.
- Bank of Japan’s Ultra-Loose Policy: In contrast, the BoJ continues its ultra-loose monetary policy, aiming to stimulate Japan’s sluggish economy. Despite rising inflation in Japan, the BoJ has shown little inclination to raise rates aggressively. This Interest rate differential between the US and Japan tends to weaken the yen, giving a bullish outlook for USDJPY.
2. Risk Sentiment in Global Markets
Risk sentiment plays a crucial role in the movement of USDJPY. When global markets are in a risk-off mode, investors tend to flock to safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen, strengthening it. However, recent global economic data and financial news have maintained a somewhat stable risk appetite, leaning towards a risk-on environment.
- US Economic Data: Recent reports from the US, such as better-than-expected retail sales and strong labor market data, continue to support the narrative of economic resilience. This fuels demand for the dollar and supports USDJPY’s bullish momentum.
- Global Geopolitical Risks: While geopolitical tensions in regions like Europe and the Middle East may inject some volatility, there hasn’t been a major shift toward a risk-off sentiment that would heavily favor the yen. For now, dollar strength seems to dominate.
3. Japanese Economic Conditions
Japan’s economy continues to struggle with low growth despite rising inflation. The BoJ’s consistent approach to stimulus, combined with the government's push for wage growth, has not yet translated into significant yen strength. Additionally, trade deficits in Japan, exacerbated by higher import costs, have weighed on the yen’s valuation.
Without a major shift in BoJ policy or a significant improvement in Japan's economic performance, the yen will likely remain under pressure, keeping USDJPY on a slightly bullish path.
4. US Bond Yields
US Treasury yields are another major factor driving the USDJPY. Higher US bond yields, often seen in response to tighter monetary policy and strong economic data, make the dollar more attractive to foreign investors. The upward trajectory of bond yields has been a persistent theme, reinforcing dollar strength. If this trend continues through the week, we can expect additional support for USDJPY.
5. Technical Indicators
Looking at the technical analysis for USDJPY, the pair has been trading near key resistance levels in recent sessions. If the pair breaks above these resistance zones, we could see further bullish momentum.
- Key Support and Resistance Levels: The 145.00 level has been a psychological support level for USDJPY, while 148.50 serves as resistance. Should the pair break beyond this resistance, it could trigger more buying pressure, pushing USDJPY higher.
Conclusion: USDJPY’s Slight Bullish Bias
In conclusion, the USDJPY pair is expected to exhibit a slight bullish bias this week, primarily driven by:
- Monetary policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ.
- Favorable US economic data and rising Treasury yields.
- Limited economic growth in Japan, with persistent trade deficits.
- Stable global risk sentiment supporting the dollar over the yen.
Traders should keep an eye on US bond yields, Fed comments, and any sudden shifts in risk sentiment or geopolitical events, as these could influence USDJPY’s trajectory throughout the week.
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EUR/USD to tag 1.11 before its next leg lower?It is good to finally see the USD strength we were calling for finally come into play. It may have a little further to run, which could see further downside on the weekly chart for EUR/USD. But first, we look at a potential long on the daily and 4-hour chart, taking the weekly analysis into account.
GBPUSD: Sell any retracements towards 1.3145-65 for 1.3080-90GBPUSD is in a downtrend in the short term with Weekly, Daily and 4H charts technical picture favoring the continuation of the move lower.
Strategy:
SELL at current levels and at any advance towards 1.3145-60
STOP LOSS above 1.3205
TP: 1.3085 or 1.3055-60
MULTITIME FRAME TECHNICAL PICTURE AND ANALYSIS
Weekly: Reversal Weekly Bar at double channel top
Daily: Reversal Patterns and RSI Double top
4H: H&S pattern pointing lower
USDNOK Is Still Eyeing June LowsUSDNOK is sideways for the last two years that looks like a triangle within uptrend. It's an ABCDE pattern where wave E can be in play, ideally still to the lower side of a range for subwave (C) after the recent subwave (B) rally. Notice that we see price turning sharply and impulsively from the upper triangle resistance line as expected, so wave (C) is in full progress which can push the price down to 10.30 - 10.00 support zone before we will see stabilization and recovery.
USDNOK is not at the June lows yet, so we believe it's still in wave 4 correction before a continuation lower for wave 5 towards 10.30 – 10.00 zone. Ideal resistance is at 10.60 – 10.70 area.
EURAUD SELL TF H4 TP = 1.6323 On the H4 chart the trend started on Aug. 06 (linear regression channel).
There is a high probability of profit taking. Possible take profit level is 1.6323
Using a trailing stop is also a good idea!
Please leave your feedback, your opinion. I am very interested in it. Thank you!
Good luck!
Regards, WeBelievelnTrading
EURUSD Is Rising In An Impulsive Five-Wave CycleEURUSD is coming higher, possibly breaking out of a triangle on a higher time frame chart, as market breaks above 1.1140, so it seems that some big moves can be happening. In fact, we clearly see higher highs and higher swing lows on 4h time frame, that looks like a wave 3 from the last two weeks, so more upside can be coming after a current pullback. Support on dip for wave four is at 1.11, from where market can be headed up to 1.1250-1.13. Trend will change below 1.10.
Keep your eyes on the RBNZ rate decision!Expect some action after the RBNZ rate decision.
Watch the video for more details.
FX_IDC:NZDUSD EASYMARKETS:NZDUSD
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Will the 2800 zone act as a strong resistance in the near term?After breaking the 2800 area, we are now approaching it from the other side. Will it act as a strong resistance, or will we break back above it?
For more information, watch the video.
CRYPTO:ETHUSD EASYMARKETS:ETHUSD
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Can EURUSD revisit the psychological 1.1000 zone?With the expectation of rate cuts from the Fed, EURUSD might experience buying interest, at least in the near term. Watch the video for more details.
FX_IDC:EURUSD EASYMARKETS:EURUSD
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Is JASMY done? Taking a look at the daily chart, we see JASMY has been in a down trend (lower highs and lower lows) since the beginning of June falling back into this consolidation range where it was bound for 3 months during February - May. The fact that price has made a complete retracement of the breakout and back into the old consolidation channel, testing its low, is not a good sign to me.
The yellow lines on the chart represent the consolidation's boundaries with the top acting as strong resistance and the bottom now acting as strong support again. There's an intermediate level that acts as support/resistance around the .021 area.
The selloff on Monday, August 5th had substantial volume (last time we had that high of a volume was in February) which indicates to me that a large amount of coins were sold that day and people were taking their profits or getting out of their positions.
Moving forward, I would expect price to be bound within the range of this consolidation channel and if it breaks below it, the next support zone I see is around .012 - .013.
If price makes its way down to .015 - .016 again and consolidates there, it could be a great opportunity for a long position as that level is extremely strong. But, I need more data supporting that thesis before considering an actual entry.
Good luck to you all.
Bitcoin Cash update after the break of the 400 levelSo the idea worked out nicely and we cleared the 400 zone.
What's next? Well, watch the video idea.
CRYPTO:BCHUSD EASYMARKETS:BCHUSD
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Watch out for BoJ tomorrowThe BoJ will be coming out with its interest rate decision tomorrow. Be careful with your yen positions, if you have any.
#nzdjpy FX_IDC:NZDJPY EASYMARKETS:NZDJPY
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easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BCHUSD is lagging?Looking at the technical picture of BCHUSD we can see that the 400-dollar mark is providing strong resistance. A clearance of that area may attract more buyers into the game.
#bchusd EASYMARKETS:BCHUSD CRYPTO:BCHUSD
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Watch out for Lagarde's comments todayThe ECB is delivering its interest rate decision today, however, most of the action could happen during the press conference. Keep your eyes on that!
FX_IDC:EURUSD EASYMARKETS:EURUSD
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easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Watch out for the US retail sales todayThe US retail sales are coming out today, so be careful with the US instruments.
EASYMARKETS:SPIUSD SP:SPX
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Cryptos fall Cryptos take a nosedive after the report that Mt. Gox moved 47228 BTC from cold storage to anew address.
EASYMARKETS:ETHUSD CRYPTO:ETHUSD
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Germany's DAX Threatening Big Break Below Trend SupportGermany's DAX index has had a solid 2024 so far, but the shine may be coming off the bullish technicals as we head into the second half of the year.
After hitting a record high near 19K in May, the index has seen its gains stall out. Prices retreated to bullish trend line support in mid-June, and with bulls failing to drive a convincing bounce off that level, the DAX is now at risk of a bearish breakdown below that level of dynamic support. A breakdown could target the March/April closing lows in the 17.7K zone next.
JPY remains under selling pressureThe Japanese government is currently enjoying the weaker yen, as it helps boost the economy. However, this is only a short-term solution, as eventually, people's anger about rapidly rising prices might overshadow that government's positivity.
#audjpy EASYMARKETS:AUDJPY FX_IDC:AUDJPY
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easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
How much more will the yen continue its devaluation?Still no support from the BoJ to stabilize their Japanese yen. But there is a reason for that...
#USDJPY EASYMARKETS:USDJPY FX_IDC:USDJPY
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easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.