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Technical-analysis

SPX: Market and Macroeconomic OutlookTechnical Simple overview: It is well known among professionals that moving average 200 is one of bear market indicators as when the market is below it, the market considered in a bear market and when the market is moving above it, it will be considered as bull market. From chart perspective, we can see that the market can deviate from the moving average when bull market create big run in a short period of time. I have measured the approximate deviation between major tops and their MA200 at a time to see the percentage of deviation between the price and MA 200. We can clearly see that the last year and year 2020 shown a huge deviation from the moving average which due to Quantitative Easing, Stimulus and inflation. Interest Rate forecasting: Yesterday in the Fed Meeting, overview FOMC indicated a hawkish sentiment over interest rates, in simple english they need to increase interest rate in order to fight inflation which is said to sit around 3% at YE 2022. They also indication the interest to decrease Fed balance sheet to around PRE-COVID19 levels. From yesterday's minutes, we can take these two major statements: "Participants generally noted that, given their individual outlooks for the economy, the labor market, and inflation, it may become warranted to increase the federal funds rate sooner or at a faster pace than participants had earlier anticipated." "Some participants also noted that it could be appropriate to begin to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet relatively soon after beginning to raise the federal funds rate," I will continue to talk a little technical words and then I will explain it in simple english relevant to the market. In order for the Fed to shrink their balance sheet which reached around $8 trillions, there are arguments of either selling bonds they have or more probably they will wait until maturity of these bonds. In theory, by shrinking its bond holdings, the Fed could prop up longer-term yields. Relying less on rate hikes would meantime reduce the amount by which short-term rates rise. “A few of these participants raised concerns that a relatively flat yield curve could adversely affect interest margins” for lenders, the minutes said, referring to a sub-group of those favoring greater reliance on balance-sheet measures. Such a yield curve “may raise financial stability risks,” according to these officials." Now to the simple english in relation to the stock market: 1- When reducing Fed Balance sheet, long term rates may rise (for bonds..etc), but if hikes is not too much, short term rates won't move that much. 2- Interest rates increases make investor to search for less risky investments (long term and short term) with consideration for inflation rates 3- In repeat to what happened during 2018, the market will look for a correction if the Fed applied what is being anticipated (increase interest rate). 4- Expectation will be that same market movement as 2018, growing but slowly or may even be a neutral year. This will provide long term opportunities. until next time, AgentHK
SP:SPX
by AgentHK
1
Gold - 04 / Jan review. What happened today?Sadly for all of us Gold today never managed to break through 1800.80 support level or through the channel ever. So, no selling orders today… My fundamental analysis whisper to my ear that so aggressive drop in the price yesterday has been caused partially by Bank Holiday in the UK (London). Forex trades got affected badly as well ( almost all trades went to reversal direction ) Well, all trades start returning to the normal way today and in another day or two this all mess going to be cleared up.
FX:XAUUSD
by G-money2022
3
Technical Analysis for AUDUSD - H1 Timeframe - December 29, 2021- AUDUSD is below MA and below Pivot Point. RSI is below 50 level. Down Trend is observed. - Price is following upward triangle but could not sustained above up the top trend line, reversing from here will make it move downward. - Good example for consolidation at top with narrow range is formed. - Alternative Scenario – One can wait for it to check S2 - 0.72073 (Horizontal Line) Below that intraday down trend may start. - Watch out levels for intraday trading.
Short
by FinanzaEdu
Bitcoin and Altcoins technical analysis.Hello everyone, welcome back. last few days been great days for traders, bulls been taking over the market and we saw some great pumps on different coins, lets checkout bitcoin to see whats going on here Bitcoin managed to break the downtrend channel, failing to go further down from 46k and with a breakout and pull back to 48k level, we saw a great bullish move helping us toward reaching the 50k level. checking out the daily chart candle by candle you could see that we have a good momentum right now, meaning that this move is going to last for now. *use the chart above for major support and resistances level.* Now currently bitcoin is forming a trading range between 50.4k and 51.4k, meaning that its gonna be here for a while. after that I expect a breakout causing the price rise to 53k level. Now lets take a look at BTC.D chart and see whats going on. as you can see BTC.D is at the bottom right now and candles are looking weak meaning that we are probably going to go back up. a simple rule about BTC.D is that when Total market cap is rising and BTC.D is going down or staying down, this means that Altcoins are going to go up, why ? its simple because the money that is entering the market is not spent on BTC, so its spent on other coins. now what happens when BTC.D goes up? well simply, money is taken out of alt coins and spent more on BTC, causing btc price to go up and alt/btc pairs to suffer. now should we sell our altcoins and buy btc? not exactly, there might be some good alt coins going further up based on their fundamentals or technical and again BTC.D going up usually effects the Altcoin/BTC pair as Bitcoin gains more worth than the alt coins in this period. For long term and mid term, everything looks good, there is a good potential for another big bull run, some alt coins are going to go 2x - 5x and bitcoin is going toward ATH. *Keep in mind this is not a financial advice*
Long
by Algo_Analyst