Silver Long After breaking out from the descending wedge we got stopped at the 0.5 Fib level- 1st yellow arrow -
Some profits taken there , I was hopping we will retest back on the top of the wedge , but it seems that we are forming a bull flag,
Measure move up will be the length of the pole and that will send us straight to the 0.786 Fib level- third yellow arrow -
There is though some significant volume exchanged on levels before that in the past and around the 0.618 - second yellow arrow - Generally I am bullish on this .
After exiting on the 0.5 Fib level , I got back on the trend while in the flag but will exit my position if I see we hang around current levels longer, since that will cancel the flag and probably send us back on the top of the wedge that price broke out from. That point will be where my entry in a pull back scenario will be.
Technical-analysis
BTCUSD Inception day 29-12-2019, Sunday forecast.Greetings fellow traders,
As time goes by, the markets evolve...
If your way of TA is strong, then the path will lead its way...
More visible, more probable:
Dashed lines; Possible forming patterns
Solid lines; Confirmed patterns / Support or Resistance
Dotted lines; Possible price-action trajectories / wave trend
Light colors = Support / Dark colors = Resistance
' I’m trying to free your mind, Neo. But I can only show you the door. You’re the one that has to walk through it. '
~ Morpheus, The Matrix ~
With that having quoted, this is my way of keeping order in the chaos. I call it, "Pattern Formation Level( PFL )":
Alpha > Beta > Delta > Echo > Gamma > ( Secret???? )
Explanation PFL:
Alpha; ST / Bullish Pennant pattern formation, a.k.a. "The End Game", a.k.a. "The Big Long". (Daily and higher time-frames)
Beta; Most recent relevant and biggest forming pattern within The Alpha forming pattern. FW / DC. (4-24 hour time-frames)
Delta; Most recent relevant forming patterns within The Beta pattern. (4-8 hour time-frames)
Echo; Most recent relevant forming patterns within The Delta pattern. (1-4 hour time-frames)
Gamma; You get the picture... (10-60 min. time-frames)
Secret Level; Do not thread these treacherous waters. Only for master level TA skills. (10 min. and lower time-frames)
Eventually the PFL's are all connected. Gamma patterns combines into Echo pattern and Echo patterns combines into Delta patterns etc. Until the Alpha patterns has been formed. I'm not calling it just the Alpha for dominance in size. For as this pattern, is, the Alpha and Omega. Which will start a new market cycle and end the current one. By inserting pattern formations in the PFL as parameter. This makes it easier keeping track of which pattern formations are relevant to the current TA and entry or exit strategies. It might be hard to learn, but it is certainly easy to master.
As a programmer and I like playing chess. As result to my TA, I like to look ahead as far as possible. This is only doable if you have reasonable reliable trends to follow. That's why I came up with this system. In time, as I gain experience in the markets. My TA skills evolves and in parallel my systems and indicators.
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Current Delta patterns:
Possible forming pattern: DT has 1st confirmations on resistance and support levels.
Current Echo patterns:
DT, Confirmed so far; RW, FBW
Current Gamma patterns:
Most recent possible forming pattern: DT
Today's Note:
After all this time of analyzing and trading, waking up in red or loss. Still has a stronger impact than gains. Yesterday, I was lucky and I must add. Although I have woken up more often in green than in red. Aside from that, somehow the impact is still effects me more. Concerning my judgment for the day, making it tougher to stay rational. Hence the reason considering to stop overnight positions or at least when I'm asleep.
Anyhow, while looking at the charts. I can see the Delta pattern becoming more clear. The current Echo(DT) pattern is looking bearish, but the Gamma(DC) pattern might be a game changer. If the Echo pattern(DT) support fails. Henceforth it wil most likely will retest the support of the Delta pattern, confirming the support of the Delta(DT) pattern for the 2nd time. When this happens. There is a slight chance. That it will wick further down to the retest the support of the, dum dum duuuum... The Beta(FW/DC) pattern... However, it's more likely that BTC is going to bounce back , retesting and giving us the 2nd confirmation of the resistance. Most recent similar with a magnitude of an event was with the Bakkt introduction, it triggered the breakout dump. Obviously I'm biased on bearish short-term. Once I notice significant bullish reversal possibilities. I will update the thread.
To be concluded...
Current Targets:
If Echo(DT) support holds; Exit short position.
If Echo(DT) support fails & Echo(DC) resistance holds; Exit short position.
If Delta(DT) support holds and Exit short position / Entry long position target: $6.6K region.
If Delta(DT) support fails; Exit short position / Entry long position target: $6.2K region.
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Epilogue:
If you don't want to miss out on any of my daily technical analysis. Then click or tap on follow and don't forget to smash on that like button ^^, thanks in advance.
In case you're wondering which indicator I'm using. She's called EMI , short for 'Epic Market Indicator' and she's a collection of diverse indicators. How to use, is in the description. You can use them like any other indicators. Search for 'epic market indicator' then add. I have recently published the latest versions. EMI 1 v3.0 & EMI 2 v2.0. Like any other instrument, practice makes perfect. If you have any input for EMI or questions about my way of TA(*Asian sound-effects*). Please leave a comment or DM me and I'll try to respond a.s.a.p. Be careful and good luck fellow traders, may the trend gods be with you!
NZDJPY SHORTHello traders!
As we are approaching to the end of the year and as well Christmas spirit, the market is going to become very slow and choppy. Now we have to be very patient and use strict risk management, as well as turn to the day trades only.
NZDJPY SHORT OPPORTUNITY:
Price is slowing down on the Daily TF and creating a various reversal patterns on the lower time frames such as 4-hour and 1-hour. Now looking at 1-Hour TF here, we are having a head and shoulder reversal structure but the price is currently struggling to break bellow the supportive region. I'm expecting a little push up to re-test the M formation neckline on the lower TF and then a selloff for kinda 80pips tops to cover the price gap at the bottom.
Disclaimer:
This is not a signal, it is just a trading suggestion. Use it according to your own research and technical analysis.
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EURJPY 4hour 12/18/19EJ Short Idea
Higher timeframe analysis has been bearish up until recent price action where we can see a daily retracement of the 88.6% fib level
Since price action reached the 88.6% level we have noticed a daily Lower high form which suggests potential bearish volume coming
Ideally a test of broken structure followed by break and retest of major support around 119.800 would give us confirmation to enter short
Upon confirmation we will target higher timeframe support levels as this will be a very large move to the downside
XAUUSD (Gold) Daily 12/8/19GOLD Long
Higher time frames show that gold has been quite bullish but has been retracing to the daily 38.2% fib level
Gold, like dxy, has been ranging between the 38.2% and 1477.50 and has not established a bullish or bearish move yet
If we are to trade a bullish continuation we want to see a break and retest of the 1477.50 area but if we are to target lower we will look for the 38.2% zone to be broken
Where is 10Year Going? Supply and Demand ZonesWe have couple of supply zones above current price but also big strong Daily Demand zone below so...
after drop to demand there is a big chance to rally up to supply zone and even further
keep these number is your mind ;))
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Treat Trading Like a Business
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Have a profitable day
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AUDUSD LONG IDEAHello traders!
Very slow movement past week on the Aussie Dollar! this week we are having a lot of fundamental support for the AUD staring today in the Asian session. I do believe that we can push down before going up because the price is currently looking very much bearish but out of power. When you see slowing down in the price that means that bears are losing their control at the moment, but we can have a stop hunt move down before going up.
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Disclaimer
the content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
EURUSD LONG IDEAHello traders!
EURUSD very similar to the DXY as it's cross-referenced, now as I want to see the DXY push up first before going down, here on the EURUSD I want to see another move to the downside into the supportive regions before taking a long trade here, it can be a nice swing movement up on the hill. From last week's conditions, you can clearly see how one day engulfed the whole week of the choppy movement, this is giving us a sign for the long trades if we will see another rejection of the bottom region.
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Disclaimer
the content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
U.S DOLLAR ( DXY ) OVERVIEWHello traders!
A very slow week is behind us and we are stepping into the last month in the year December. As normally we are going to start with the DXY which is the catalyst for the market movements across the board.
Technical: As seen the last week was choppy with few pips up and few pips down until the Friday which one candle engulfed the whole week and gave us a sign for the bearish market condition, but first as seen on the chart I'm expecting a push up into the region before going down to the 98.00 mark.
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Disclaimer
the content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
DOW JONES / +20% potential move if this year ends ATH greenThis is a 6 month chart of the US30 (DOW JONES). We are in an uptrend for the last decades and if this year closes at an all time high or really close to the all time high, we are really likely to see bullish continuation. At the end of last year we saw global stock markets go down resulting in an retracement. This year has had it's ups and downs but the last months we are going up again and breaking the highs of the last quarter of 2018, which brings the market in another potential bullish move.
In the first 6 months of the year price closed really bullish which was a great first sign of a new move up. Then, price started to get down to the 25000 area and test it there, reject and move all the way up again. This means we have first a decent breakout candle of the first half of the year, then a rejection currently breaking all time highs which means it makes the 25000 area even stronger as a support.
With some political events such as the trade deal between the US and China december wont' be a really silent month so let's see what happens with the last month of this year.
I will keep this scenario updated.
Happy trading everyone!
Weight Watchers about to gain some weight :DAlright, now that I got the corny title out of the way we can talk about why this stock will do well. This recent drop was huge and the trend is getting close to the 30 week moving average at around $27, it's been trading above the 30 week MA so at this point buying the pullbacks to the 30 week makes sense. The S&P 500 is trending up from the recent break out and that will be the main reason why this would go up. Today volume came in on that big drop and you can see it if you zoom into the 1hr chart, trade this on the weekly just look at the volume for reference on the 1hr. Could it drop a little further? Possibly, but i'd trade this by buying it here and buying more on the way to $27 if it were to continue dropping. The RSI is centered out and the MACD seems to have a way to go so the stock has momentum for what I believe might be 2 big moves to $45 and $65. Let me know what you guys think and feel free to post your ideas!
Is Bitcoin going on New Year's holidays?Bitcoin continues to decline. Its support level in the area of $ 7,200 - $ 7,400, which also coincided with the Fibonacci level of 0.618, could not restrain sellers, and the price rushed lower. Now the price has fixed below the support zone of $ 7,200 - $ 7,400, which tells us that really interested buyers haven`t yet appeared in the market — if they had, they would begin to move the price up.
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Technically, we trade under the support level, 20EMA and 50EMA crossed 200EMA, all indicators are in the downtrend, so far everything doesn't look extremely optimistic for bitcoin. The next potentially interesting for purchases is in the area $ 5,500 - $ 6,000, where there is a large concentration of stops -orders, which the market makers are likely to follow. Now a slight correction of the price for a mirror-level retest of $ 7,400 is possible, if the price fails to break higher and gain a foothold over it, a further decrease is expected to below the esignated area of about $ 6,000.
Fundamental and technical condition of bitcoin.The price of bitcoin after a long systematic downwards decline over the past day has fallen sharply by $ 700 (-8%). The fall is due to the negative fundamental background and the weakness of buyers who have not stepped up in the support area of $ 8,200 - $ 8,400.
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The fundamental causes of the fall:
- “The surrender of miners” on the eve of halving: bitcoin miners are actively draining their income;
- In China, there is again a kind of “cooling” of sentiment regarding cryptocurrencies;
- Throwing negative news about a police raid on the Binance cryptocurrency exchange office in Shanghai.
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Technically:
The price amid weak buyers and a negative fundamental background came close to a strong support level in the area of $ 7,400 - $ 7,600 again, which, in its turn, coincides with the Fibonacci level of 0.618 that locally strengthens this area and increases the likelihood of a price rebound, which may provoke further upward price movement, thereby forming the figure of the technical analysis named the "double bottom". The RSI indicator began to enter the oversold zone, which also plays into the hands of buyers, but does not guarantee a 100% increase in current prices.
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The $ 7,400 - $ 7,600 zone is currently the key to the further movement of bitcoin price, and the cryptocurrency market as a whole, as if they continue to aggressively push bitcoin down, all other altcoins will follow. If sellers manage to push this level and gain a foothold under it, we`ll have every chance to continue the downtrend, down to the area of $ 5,400 - $ 6,000, where we expect the next zone of potential buyers, which also acts as a zone of accumulation of stop orders for traders trading on increase, and these orders are potential fuel for the future global rise in the price of bitcoin.