Technical-trade-analysis
GU BIAS: SHORT; ANALYSIS CHART: H1 & H4Hello traders, I believe some of you lost money yesterday thinking the cable would continue the bullish move, but unfortunately, the cable changed the direction.
Today, the question is, will the cable continue the down move? Yes, there is an 85% probability that the pair could down to the level of 1.19418 or below. The bearish reversal signal is expected from the level of 1.20295. I think a resistance zone Is expected to occur around this level. I mean fake out, big banks, and smart money manipulation for the stop-loss hunt. Be careful when selling there. Look for the opportunity to sell from this level in the H1 or the smaller timeframe like M15 or M5.
Finally, we remain bearish in the cable market as long as the price is below the trendline.
Shooting Star Candlestick
What is the Shooting Star Pattern?
1. A shooting star is a type of candlestick pattern which forms when the price of the security opens, rises significantly, but then closes near the open price.
2. The distance between the highest price of the day and the opening price should be more than twice as large as the shooting star’s body.
What does Shooting Star tells you?
1. Shooting stars signals a potential downside reversal and is most effective when it forms after 2-3 consecutive rising candles having higher highs.
2. A shooting star opens and rises strongly during the trading session, showing the same buying pressure that is seen over the last trading sessions.
3. At the end of the trading session, the sellers push the price down near the open.
4. This shows that the buyers have lost control by the end of the day, and the sellers have taken over.
5. The long upper shadow indicates that the buyers are losing position as the price drops back to the open.
6. The candle after the shooting star gaps down and then moves lower on heavy volume.
7. This candle helps in confirming the price reversal and indicates that the price will continue to fall.
Trading Scenario
1. Trade Entry: Before you enter a shooting star trade, you should confirm that the prior trend is an active bullish trend.
2. Stop Loss: You should always try to use a stop-loss order when trading the shooting star candle pattern.
3. Taking Profits: The price target for this trade should be equal to the size of the shooting star pattern.
Limitations of Shooting Star
1. One should not only rely on a candle pattern like in a shooting star for making trading decisions.
2. This is why confirmation is required, one can confirm by the next candle or other technical analysis indicators.
3. One should also use stop losses when using candlesticks to control the losses.
4. A candlestick pattern is more significant when it occurs near an important level signaled by other forms of technical analysis.
Why Price patterns work. Price patterns are patterns that were made by price based on the relationship between time and the movement of price on a price chart. They could be based on a single bar or candlestick, two or more, or even several bars or candlesticks. For now, I would be using just bars. They could be just for one session based on the timeframe or several sessions or days. The charts below illustrate some bars
Single bars
Multiple bars
Some of the reasons why price patterns work are:
1. Prices are determined solely by people’s changing attitudes towards the emerging fundamentals. That means, prices are determined by psychology. Garfield Drew is quoted as saying that: “Stocks don’t sell for what they worth, but for what people think they are worth.” One recent example of people’s changing attitude is the recent selloff in gold that was experienced at the heart of the Covid-19 pandemic. People thought gold being a safe haven could rise rapidly in prices, but for two weeks between March 9 and March 19, the price of gold fell by 14%.
2. Market prices are not random events. People’s changing attitudes towards the value of an asset moves in trends and trends tend to perpetuate. An uptrend is expected to keep going up until the market psychology changes and the same for a downtrend. The shifts in these attitudes are usually captured by price patterns. GBPUSD chart below showing how a shift in trend due to market sentiment is captured by the 123 pattern and trendline very perfectly. A huge rally ensued.
Notes on my observations:
1. Price patterns should not be used in isolation. When I trade price pattern I use confluence of the price pattern with support and resistance levels such as horizontal support and resistance, diagonal support and resistance from trendlines, and Fibonacci levels.
2. Also, you should take note of the underlying psychology that gave rise to the development of the price pattern. I generally trade pullbacks and reversal patterns because these give price actions that conform with the underlying psychology of the market in trends.