BTCUSD | 1D SMC Short Setup with Refined SL and TargetsDescription:
This analysis identifies a high-probability short opportunity for BTCUSD on the 1D timeframe using the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) framework. The chart shows clear bearish confluences, including market structure, supply zones, liquidity levels, and Fibonacci retracement zones. I believe the current bullish momentum is merely a manipulation driven by inflation news and the upcoming Trump inauguration. Following these events, I anticipate a significant market correction. Here’s the detailed breakdown and trade plan:
Analysis:
Market Structure:
Break of Structure (BOS): Price has confirmed a bearish trend with BOS to the downside, signaling a continuation of lower highs and lower lows.
Trendline Resistance: A well-defined downward trendline indicates selling pressure, reinforcing the bearish bias.
Key Zones and Liquidity:
Supply Zone: Highlighted in purple at $102,000-$104,000 . This zone represents an area where strong selling previously occurred, creating an imbalance.
Golden Zone (Fibonacci Retracement): Located around $101,000-$103,000 , this area aligns with the 61.8%-78.6% retracement levels and offers a high-probability reversal opportunity.
Weak High: The high near $104,000 represents untapped liquidity, which smart money may target for a liquidity grab before reversing lower.
Equal Lows (EQL): Around $92,000 , these act as a bearish target where liquidity rests, aligning with the continuation of the bearish trend.
Confluences for Short Entry:
Price is approaching the supply zone and Fibonacci Golden Zone , indicating a potential reversal point.
The weak high may trigger a liquidity grab to entice buyers before sellers regain control.
Previous BOS and trendline resistance add further validation to the bearish bias.
Trade Plan:
Short Entry Setup:
Entry Zone: $102,000-$104,000 (inside the supply zone and Golden Zone).
Stop Loss (SL): $105,500 (above the supply zone and imbalance to account for liquidity grabs).
Take Profit Levels:
TP1: $97,000 – Close partial profits at this imbalance mitigation level.
TP2: $92,000 – Target the equal lows and resting liquidity.
TP3: $88,000 – Final target near the blue demand zone for maximum reward.
Risk-Reward Ratio:
With the entry at $103,000 (midpoint of supply), SL at $105,500, and TP at $92,000, the trade offers a 1:4 RR or better, depending on execution and scaling.
Additional Notes:
Monitor the price action closely as BTC approaches the supply zone for confirmation, such as bearish candlestick patterns or lower timeframe CHoCH (Change of Character).
Scaling into the trade in smaller portions across the supply zone can improve overall entry precision.
Adjust stop loss or take profit levels as market conditions evolve
Technical
Can a breakthrough to the upside be maintained of S&P500?From the technical side, we are seeing a small push higher, breaking above a short-term downside line. Despite this being a somewhat positive occurrence, we would rather wait to see where we close at the end of Friday. For more information, please see the video.
MARKETSCOM:US500
RISK DISCLAIMER
74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
RAY ANALYSIS📊 #RAY Analysis : Update
✅As we said earlier, #RAY performed same. Resistance1 done in #RAY. There is a formation of Flag and Pole Pattern on daily chart.🧐
Current we can see a little retest and then we could target for next resistance
👀Current Price: $5.520
🚀 Target Price: $6.390
⚡️What to do ?
👀Keep an eye on #RAY price action and volume. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits⚡️⚡️
#RAY #Cryptocurrency #TechnicalAnalysis #DYOR
GOLD approaching key short-term resistance. What's next?Gold is moving in the upwards direction, despite the higher US CPI reading, which benefits the US dollar. However, there is a possibility that the higher inflation reading was already priced in and maybe this could lead to slower upside pace for the US dollar. Let's dig in...
TVC:GOLD TVC:DXY MARKETSCOM:GOLD MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
RISK DISCLAIMER
74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
CADJPY Rising Wedge Breakout and Targeting Support LevelCADJPY is currently trading at 108.300, with a target price set at 106.000, offering a potential gain of 200+ pips. The analysis is based on a support and resistance pattern, indicating the pair’s key price levels. A rising wedge breakout has already occurred, a bearish signal pointing to further downside potential. The price is now positioned below a major resistance level, confirming sellers' dominance in the market. With this setup, the pair is likely to continue its downward movement toward the main support level, which aligns with the target price. The bearish momentum is expected to persist as long as the resistance level holds strong. Traders should watch for any confirmation of increased selling pressure to solidify this trend. This setup highlights a favorable opportunity for bearish trades with a defined risk-reward ratio. The focus remains on the target support level as the next key price point.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(16/01/2025)Today will be gap up opening in banknifty. Expected opening near 49000 level. After opening possible reversal from this level to continue bearish trend. If reversal confirmation at this level can gives 400-500 points downside rally in banknifty. This rally can be extend for another 400-500 points if its starts trading below 48450 level. Any upside rally only expected if banknifty sustain and starts trading above 49050 level.
Bouncing Back: EUR/USD Poised for a Bullish WaveEUR/USD is trading at 1.0257, showing signs of bullish momentum with a target price of 1.0800. The price action is based on the support and resistance pattern, with the pair currently bouncing off a strong support level. This bounce indicates a potential reversal and the start of an upward trend. The support level serves as a foundation for buyers to regain control, pushing the price higher. A steady climb toward the resistance level at 1.0800 is expected if the support holds firm. Traders should monitor this bounce closely for confirmation of bullish momentum. The setup presents a favorable opportunity for long positions, supported by technical analysis. However, risk management remains crucial to navigate market volatility. This move emphasizes the role of key levels in predicting price movements. Patience and strategy are essential to capitalize on this trade setup.
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) Comprehensive AnalysisOverview
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) has been a focal point of market activity, showcasing significant volatility and creating substantial opportunities for both short-term traders and long-term investors. The current price is $411.58, with the stock trading below its absolute high of $488.54 recorded on December 18, 2024. This represents a deviation of approximately -15.75% from the peak. This technical and fundamental analysis will leverage advanced tools, including VSA patterns, price action analysis, and volume dynamics, to project future movements.
Technical Analysis
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support Levels: $383.30, $376.04, $358.62.
Resistance Levels: $420.00, $430.50, $448.00.
Moving Averages
MA50: $394.08
MA100: $397.55
MA200: $413.63
The price currently trades above the MA50 but below the MA200, suggesting consolidation within a broader bullish trend. The RSI (14) at 70.76 signals overbought conditions on shorter intervals, necessitating caution for immediate buy entrie.
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) and Patterns
Recent trading data reveals patterns indicative of institutional activity:
Buy Volumes (Jan 13): Closing at $391.96 with increased buying pressure, marking a 14.61% movement from its three-bar low of $380.07.
VSA Manipulation Patterns: A confirmed "Buy Pattern 3" formed on January 13, showcasing a potential bullish continuation with a high of $396.95.
Predicted Scenarios
Short-Term (1 Week):
Tesla appears poised to test its $420 resistance level based on bullish volume patterns. A break above $420 with significant volume could target $430 as the next level of interest. However, failure to breach $420 may result in a retracement to $400-$405 support.
Medium-Term (1 Month):
Given the observed bullish manipulation patterns and technical support at $383, Tesla may aim for a recovery toward its MA200 at $413. If sustained buying interest persists, the stock might challenge its December highs.
Long-Term (3-6 Months):
Tesla’s trajectory could see it revisiting the $450-$470 range, contingent upon macroeconomic conditions and its quarterly earnings surpassing market expectations. The psychological level of $500 remains a potential long-term target if the broader market maintains bullish momentum.
Stop-Loss and Target Levels
Proposed Trade Setup:
Entry: $412.00
Stop-Loss: $400.00
Target 1: $420.00
Target 2: $435.00
Target 3: $450.00
Fundamental Analysis
Tesla remains a key player in the EV market, with growing adoption of its vehicles worldwide. Its latest production numbers exceeded market expectations, signaling robust demand despite economic headwinds. Recent initiatives in energy storage and AI-based technology further diversify its revenue streams, underpinning its premium valuation.
Conclusion
Tesla's technical and fundamental indicators suggest a cautiously bullish outlook. While short-term retracements are possible, the stock's overall trend aligns with upward momentum, supported by strong institutional interest and robust fundamentals.
For further inquiries or personalized trading setups, feel free to contact me directly. All relevant indicators and tools used for this analysis can be found in the profile header.
Concept of Rays
Explanation of the "Rays from the Beginning of Movement" Concept
Core Idea
My proprietary analysis method is based on using rays constructed on Fibonacci mathematical and geometric principles. These rays create a system of dynamic levels that help predict precise asset movements and identify key zones where price interactions occur. Price interaction with these rays signals probable scenarios: either a reversal or a continuation of movement, but only after interaction and the appearance of dynamic factors and patterns.
Why Predicting Specific Levels is Not Possible
Financial markets are nonlinear systems, where price movement is determined by numerous variables, including market volumes, liquidity, macroeconomic factors, and participant psychology. Instead of attempting to predict specific levels, I propose analyzing probabilities of price reaction at pre-calculated key zones. Price interaction with rays provides additional insights into the direction and strength of movement.
How Rays Work
Fibonacci Rays: Each ray corresponds to a specific angle of inclination, which is mathematically significant and correlates with natural proportions and the start of movement.
Primary Advantage: Rays are constructed from the beginning of a movement pattern, rather than traditional extremum points commonly used in classical technical analysis. This allows for the rapid and accurate accounting of new trend or corrective movement phases.
Adaptability: When a new pattern emerges, rays are automatically adjusted to show the potential movement range. Price may exit this range and enter another, interacting similarly with a different ray.
Rays are Ascending and Descending: They define the boundary of the movement channel.
How to Use Rays
Historical Analysis: On historical charts, observe how price interacted with rays. This helps evaluate how often levels defined by rays led to significant movement changes.
Real-Time Monitoring: By observing current price behavior relative to rays, you can highlight key points where scenarios such as reversal or continuation are likely.
Confirmation Tool: Rays do not replace other analysis methods but enhance them, adding a structured perspective on market behavior.
Scientific Basis
Fibonacci proportions, underlying the construction of rays, are observed in nature, physics, and financial markets, making them a universal tool.
Geometric angles and trends are based on mathematical analysis of historical price behavior.
The principle of minimizing subjectivity in analysis is also applied: rays are constructed strictly algorithmically, excluding human bias.
Why It Matters
My name is Denis Mikheev, and my method does not offer magical solutions or "predictions" of exact price movements. Instead, it identifies key interaction zones where market participants, as well as automated market-maker algorithms, are likely to make decisions. This allows you to act based on probabilities, not guesses.
Example Visualization
On a chart with rays already constructed, you can see:
How price reacts to intersections or proximity to rays.
Where current interaction points may signal potential changes in movement dynamics.
Trade Safe!
Denis MikheevTheWaved™ Team
USDCAD Consolidation: Eyeing a Breakout Above Key Resistance USDCAD is currently trading at 1.443, with a target price of 1.490, suggesting a potential gain of over 500 pips. The analysis is based on the support and resistance pattern, indicating that the pair is holding its main resistance level. A breakout above this resistance level is being anticipated. Currently, the pair is in a consolidation phase, where price movements are relatively limited. This phase often signifies market indecision and can precede significant price action. Traders are closely monitoring the breakout potential, as a breach of resistance could signal strong upward momentum. The technical setup suggests bullish sentiment, with the resistance level acting as a critical price point. If the breakout occurs, it may confirm the continuation of the uptrend. However, traders should remain cautious and consider potential reversals if the resistance holds.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.10.2024🔮 Nightly SP:SPX / AMEX:SPY Predictions for 1.10.2024
📅 Fri Jan 10
⏰ 8:30am
💰 Average Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.4%)
👷 Non-Farm Employment Change: 164K (prev: 227K)
📉 Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (prev: 4.2%)
⏰ 10:00am
📊 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: 74.0 (prev: 74.0)
📈 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations: 2.8%
💡 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
The markets are very sensitive right now with the pause. I wouldn't bet that it holds this gap for long.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
A little more upside, and then markets will need the weekend to digest.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
Bullish Breakout: Time to Buy!hello traders!
ProfitScalper 1H Analysis, Current price: 2662.
Market Overview:
The market is currently in a strong bullish momentum. A key development to note is the successful breakout above the significant resistance level of $2660, with the daily close confirming this upward move. Although a small correction may occur from current levels, the ideal entry for a buy position would be between $2653 and $2648. From there, the price is expected to target $2690 by Friday.
It is recommended to focus on finding buying opportunities today, especially in the area between $2660 and $2654, which could provide favorable entry points for further upside.
Technical Analysis and Trade Setup for GBPNZDThe forex pair GBPNZD is currently trading at a price of 2.2000, with a target price set at 2.3000, indicating a potential gain of 500+ pips. This suggests a bullish outlook for the pair, as it is expected to appreciate in value. The analysis highlights that the pair is showing a good bounce from a key support level, which often signals a reversal or continuation of an upward trend. However, the trader is exercising caution by waiting for confirmation before entering the trade. This confirmation could involve technical indicators, price action patterns, or fundamental factors aligning with the upward movement. Such an approach helps minimize risk and improve the probability of success. The trade setup relies on the strength of the support level and market sentiment favoring the pound over the kiwi. Proper risk management and adherence to a trading plan are essential when executing this strategy.
EURGBP Breaking Resistance: Turning Challenges into OpportunityThe forex pair EURGBP is currently trading at 0.83300, with a target price set at 0.84500. This suggests a potential upward movement of over 100 pips. The analysis is based on the support and resistance pattern, a widely used technical analysis method. The main resistance level appears to be breaking, indicating bullish momentum. A breakout above the resistance often signifies increased buying pressure and potential for further price increases. Traders might consider this breakout a signal to enter long positions. However, the accuracy of this setup depends on the strength of the breakout and market conditions. It’s essential to monitor for false breakouts, which can lead to reversals. Risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders, should be in place. Overall, this setup suggests a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for a bullish trade.
Analyzing AUDCAD Falling Wedge Breakout and 200+ Pips Target The forex pair AUDCAD is currently trading at 0.89700, with a target price of 0.91500, indicating an upward potential of 200+ pips. A falling wedge breakout has occurred, which is a bullish technical pattern that often signals a trend reversal or continuation of an uptrend. The breakout suggests buyers have taken control, pushing the price higher. The retesting phase has also been completed, confirming the breakout's validity and strengthening the bullish outlook. Traders often wait for retests as confirmation to enter trades with reduced risk. The target price aligns with the expected upward momentum post-breakout. With the breakout confirmed, buyers might find this setup attractive. Price action and momentum indicators should be monitored for sustained movement toward the target. Risk management is crucial, given forex volatility.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(06/01/2025)Today will be gap up opening expected in banknifty. After opening if it's sustain above 51050 level then possible upside rally upto 51450 in opening session. 51450 level will act as a resistance for upside movement. If banknifty gives breakout of this level and starts trading above 51550 then further bullish movement expected upto 400-500+ points. Major downside expected below 50950 level.
BULLISH SETUP IN CADCHF WITH 500PIPS+ POTENTIALThe CADCHF forex pair is currently trading at 0.62, with a target price set at 0.77, indicating a potential upward movement of over 500 pips. The chart pattern identified is a falling wedge, which is typically a bullish reversal pattern. This suggests that the price may soon break out upward, signaling a potential trend change. Before reaching the target price, the pair is expected to undergo retesting, a phase where the price revisits key support or resistance levels to confirm the breakout's validity. Traders should monitor the breakout zone closely, as it could trigger significant price momentum. Risk management is essential due to potential volatility during the breakout and retesting phase. The falling wedge provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, making it attractive for long trades. Patience is key as the pattern unfolds and confirms. Watching volume during the breakout will provide additional confirmation. Overall, the CADCHF setup offers a promising opportunity for traders targeting long-term gains.
USOIL PredictionWelcome to our trading analysis! It’s great to see dedicated traders like you pursuing success with focus and determination. Trading is not just about profits—it’s about learning, adapting, and growing with every market movement. Today, we’re analyzing USOIL, which is currently trading at $74, with a bullish target of $100. The market is forming a falling wedge pattern, a classic bullish setup signaling a potential upward breakout. Before the price reaches the target, it needs to confirm a breakout from this wedge, which will mark the beginning of a strong rally. This pattern indicates a high reward-to-risk opportunity for traders who patiently wait for the breakout confirmation. Watch for strong volume and momentum during the breakout phase, as these are critical indicators of strength. Stay focused, trust your analysis, and remember that consistency and discipline are the keys to long-term trading success.
BTC -USDT UPDATE on the 4th of JANUARY 2025 ! Trade closed with BTC -USDT UPDATE on the 4th of JANUARY 2025 ! Trade closed with a "healthy " profit...
"Inglorious" BTC again ! ;) Well Well Well.... Profit again ;)
Waiting for a new opportunities again...
I do hope you are in profit already... if not... You still got all year to do it ! ;)
PS: printer friendly "KISS" chart... & BTW...leverage *10 on Binance recommended... ;)
ATOM - USDT UPDATE for 4th of January... $ ---- 100%+ already...ATOM - USDT UPDATE on the 4th of January... What happened in the last 4 days ???
Well, account "went" double & plenty of room to go further....
I do hope you are all in the profit already... if not... blame yourselves only ! ;)
PS: printer friendly "KISS" chart
We see a potential bullish scenario for gold.Gold is currently considered undervalued based on both the Dynamic RSI indicator by Lars Gross and the technical analysis of levels and structure, making it a viable buying option.
The buying zone is located at the breakout of the level marked by a blue horizontal line.
A significant resistance line is at the 2,643 $ mark. The selling zone/potential take-profit area is marked in green.
Additionally, the current news regarding gold is not negative but rather neutral to positive, further supporting the bullish scenario.
USDCHF PredictionUSD/CHF current price stands at 0.90960, meaning 1 US Dollar equals 0.90960 Swiss Francs. The target price is set at 0.95000, indicating an expectation that the price will rise towards this level. The potential gain in pips is over 500 pips, with each pip representing a 0.0001 change in the exchange rate. The strategy is based on the support and resistance pattern, where price movements are analyzed at key levels of support (price floors) and resistance (price ceilings). Before reaching the target of 0.95000, the price is expected to retest the 0.89000 level, which could act as a support zone. This retesting implies that the price may temporarily drop to 0.89000 before continuing its upward trend. If the support at 0.89000 holds, the price is expected to bounce back and resume the move towards the target. The current price of 0.90960 offers an entry point for traders looking to buy, with the anticipation of the price rising to the target. The overall strategy suggests a short-term dip before a longer-term upward movement, providing a favorable risk-to-reward scenario for traders.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 03/01/2025Nifty will open slightly gap up in today's session. After opening if nifty gives breakout of 24250 level then expected strong bullish rally upto 24450+ level in today's session. 24050-24200 zone are consolidation zone for nifty. If nifty gives reversal from the 24200 then possible downside upto 24050 level. This level will act as a strong support for today's session.
NVIDIA set to make one more higher high to $165?Technical Analysis:
================
A series of higher highs and higher lows in Weekly Timeframe:
NVIDIA has found support at $132, which previously acted as a resistance area during June, July, and August 24. If the stock continues to rise from this level, we could see another higher high (yellow cap) around $165. Alternatively, a deeper correction toward $104 could still be on the table if the support fails.
Fundamental Analysis:
==================
1) If NVIDIA struggles, it would suggest AI's momentum is waning—which is clearly not the case. This downtrend might simply reflect profit-taking by large traders.
2) The "Santa Rally" is in play, and NVIDIA appears to be on the "nice" list, signaling potential upward momentum.
3) NVIDIA's Blackwell product line is expected to contribute significantly to profits in the next quarterly earnings, potentially providing a substantial boost to the stock.
I bought NVIDIA stock at $145 and plan to hold sell at $160.