USOIL - Short or Buy? Break down or retracement up? Technicals
1. We have been stuck in a range on a higher time frame for quite some time now.
2. On a higher time frame we failed to confirm a break-up from a trendline dating back to March 2022, which was the COVID-19 highs. A failed break-up of this mega trendline is normally a sign of big reversal or retracement. & we did just that ;-) question is, is this a reversal or just a retracement because I see also a trendline from DEC 2023 which we trade just under. IMO we have not fully confirmed that break down.
3. Visible in my chart we see that we are since then on a big down sloping channel which is still respected.
Fundamentals
1. My bias is slightly bearish long term because I think the US economy & other major economies will be in a recession which will give downside pressure on the price of OIL
2. Conflict in the Middle East seems to have not a significant impact as of now on the price of USOIL. Will this change? Till I see major escalation happening I don't see that it will have greater impact than it already has. US also is less energy dependent so therefor geopolitical will impact less.
3. Bullish sign is that OPEC is still holding strong on OIL cuts and China is still strong. Summer season will also give some upside pressure because of demand.
Trade
1. The first trade, which is a buy option, I will take if I see buyers really taking over to push price up
2. The second trade, which is a sell, I will take if we confirm a break and retest of the weekly low.
Great trading all of you
Greetingz,
Simba Trades
